ADP Analysis


Fantasy Stars: Bottom of the Third (Round)

By Alex Steers McCrum [February 18, 2013 at 8:01am CST]

It's the final edition of Fantasy Stars, which I know brings tears to my eyes and yours. Dry 'em off, though, because we at RotoAuthority are kicking off our Player Rankings in just two days! 

After a whole week of waiting, here are the last of our fantasy stars. Check out the top half of the third round here, and last week's bonus column here. As always on Fantasy Stars, the Average Draft Position (ADP) numbers come from MockDraftCentral and come from 154 qualifying drafts. The stats shown with the position players are the Big 5:  AVG/HR/R/RBI/SB and IP/SV/K/ERA/WHIP for relief pitchers. (No starters this round.)

Bottom of the Third (Round)

31. Craig Kimbrel, RP         ADP 33.23

32. Hanley Ramirez, SS     ADP 34.44

33. Jason Heyward, OF     ADP 36.45

34. Allen Craig, 1B              ADP 37.51

35. Starlin Catro, SS           ADP 37.52

36. Ian Kinsler, 2B             ADP 37.88

31. Craig Kimbrel, RP  62.2/42/116/1.01/0.65 (Saves, in bold, replace wins here.)
Kimbrel is the only elite relief pitcher and he's the only one that you can justify taking anywhere near this early. He isn't a tier ahead of all other relievers, he's several tiers ahead. Between his otherworldly excellence, and the paucity of other dependable closers with the track records to keep their jobs through rough patches, Kimbrel really stands out. Just look at those ratios, let alone the whiffs. He gives you half of a great starter's K's in under a third of the innings. If you play in a standard league, the kind with an innings cap, he's a great choice here.

If you're in a weekly league...I'd actually pass. The low innings that are a strength with a cap are a weakness without one, just as they are for all mortal relievers. Yes, he's the best, but in head to head, you don't necessarily want the best. At least not in the third round.

A final note of caution comes in just two words: Eric Gagne. Remember how good he was? Yes, Kimbrel strikes more guys out, yes his ERA and WHIP make it look like 1968...but great relievers flame out in a way that other players don't; they're subject to a lot more luck than other players, plus the usual injury cautions that come with pitchers. Even the best reliever in the game carries a lot of downside.

32. Hanley Ramirez, SS .257/24/79/92/21
Remember the days when Hanley used to arm-wrestle Albert Pujols for the number-one overall pick? I do, and maybe Hanley does too. After a horrific and injury-marred 2011, he bounced back pretty well in 2012. Not all the way back to the top--leaving a bitter taste in the mouths of all who drafted him with such hopes, I'm sure. Considering his numbers in line with those of other shortstops, not to mention the fact that a whole year in Los Angeles' lineup instead of Miami's, and I could see Ramirez inching up closer to his glory days. Not all the way there, but closer.

He won't be 30 until after the season and he made it up to the Majors nice and young, which gives him a better-than average shot of staying productive longer. I like him a lot as the number-two shortstop in the game, but if you draft him and he's better than he was last year, don't thank me--thank my wife, because it was she who first looked at Hanley's numbers with an objective eye and suggested a rebound to me. I was gonna take Starlin Castro....

    
33. Jason Heyward, OF .269/27/93/82/21
Heyward isn't 24 yet and he's already one of the best outfielders in baseball. He's got the track record and the prospect-pedrigree to get better, and he makes a very nice upside play here in the bottom of the third round. He's the third Braves outfielder being drafted, but he's got a great chance to be the best next year. If he inches the average up just a little, he becomes a 5-category player, since he added a bit of speed to his game last year. (I'm telling you, all the cool kids steal bases these days.) 

That same average represents his risk factor, but it isn't a huge risk. If he plays exactly as he did last year, this will be only a small overpay. How many already-good, former top-prospects don't get even better at age 23? Not enough to make me think twice about drafting Heyward here, or even higher.

    
34. Allen Craig, 1B/OF .307/22/76/92/2
Allen Craig is 28. He's not elderly, by baseball's standards or those of the real world, but he is too old to have been a prospect last year. He burst onto the scene like one, with 22 homers and a great average in just 514 PA. He'll go into next year as the Cardinals' first baseman, and he'll have some good hitters around him. But he's 28, and he turns 29 in the middle of the season.

I'm not ready to relegate him to the Quad-A status of a half-year wonder--he really does seem better than that--but he's being drafted closer to where the elite first basemen are than those with serious question marks, and he has those question marks. His position isn't as deep as it once was, and drafters are reaching for production there, but this is a reach too much. At this point in the draft, you're better off skipping by first base, taking from another position, and grabbing a similarly risky player a few rounds later. Or, you could just take the much safer and still excellent Billy Butler. Could Craig be better than Butler next year? Sure. But Craig could be terrible next year, and Butler almost certainly won't be. 

             
35. Starlin Catro, SS  .283/14/78/78/25
Right here you can read what I thought of Castro two weeks ago, in spot 30. My feelings haven't changed. He's a great player, an elite shortstop, and he isn't as good as Jose Reyes. He's a good enough choice here, but only if Reyes and Ramirez are off the board. 

      
36. Ian Kinsler, 2B .256/19/105/72/21
Our own Mark Polishuk discusses the relative merits of Kinsler and Dustin Pedroia here, but I'll just look at Kinsler for the moment. First of all, look at his stats from year to year: is he a power hitter or isn't he? Is he a speed guy, or isn't he? I guess he's both, but with all the time he misses it's hard to be sure.

He's now had two full seasons in a row, which is weird enough, but this time his performance slipped badly, especially in homers and steals. If he's a 20/20 guy with a lousy average and a ton of runs scored, there are a lot of better second basemen. If he's a 30/30 guy with a lousy average and a ton of runs there's only one better second baseman. So who is he? I honestly don't know, but at 31 the former looks more likely than it ever has before. There's a lot of risk here, and there are several second sackers who have lower risk factors and lower price tags. No, Pedroia, Ben Zobrist, Jason Kipnis, and Aaron Hill don't have the upside that Kinsler has, but they won't cost you as much either.

Here's a re-ranked third round, for tradition's sake: Strasburg, Longoria, Ramirez, Gonzalez, Wright, Heyward, Upton, Kimbrel, Bruce, Castro, Kinsler, Craig.

Finally, several players fell out of the Fantasy Stars rankings altogether: Yadier Molina, Cliff Lee, David Price, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Jose Reyes. I would definitely take Reyes in the third round (right ahead of Wright), but all the others look a lot more sensible in their new landing spots.

These rankings will change and change again before draft day, so keep mocking, and keep checking the rankings. Remember, though, that ADP won't let you read the minds of the other owners in your league. If he's your guy, and you're getting value, grab him now, even if ADP says he should still be around by your next turn. You never know who's having the same thought as you.

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Fantasy Stars: Top of the Second (Round)

By Alex Steers McCrum [January 21, 2013 at 8:08am CST]

After covering the top and bottom of the first round of a standard fantasy draft, we're charging ahead into the second. In a standard draft, picks 13-18 represent the second choice of the last six teams to draft. Thanks to the quick turnaround here, the differences in the value of the picks starts out pretty low. Actually, it starts out at nil, since the twelfth team in draft order gets to take pick number 13 as well.

As always on Fantasy Stars, the Average Draft Position (ADP) numbers come from MockDraftCentral and come from 110 qualifying drafts. The stats shown with the players are the Big 5:  AVG/HR/R/RBI/SB for position players and IP/W/K/ERA/WHIP for starting pitchers. 

13. Jose Bautista OF             ADP 13.97
14. Justin Upton OF             ADP 14.65
15. Justin Verlander SP       ADP 15.27
16. Adrian Beltre 3B             ADP 15.99
17. Troy Tulowitzki SS        ADP 17.01
18. Bryce Harper OF            ADP 19.85

Technically speaking, Bautista is getting drafted 12th and Prince Fielder is going 13th, but since they'd both be going to the same team, there isn't a valuation change to analyze for Fielder. So, let's just call Bautista number 13.

13. Jose Bautista OF.241/27/64/65/5
So far, the news coming out about Bautista is that he's healing well and is performing baseball activities, and he looks to be ready for the start of the season, after last season's catastrophic wrist injury. Watch him and the news about him in Spring Training of course, but for the moment let's assume that everything knowable is fine. If that changes, so will this valuation.

Even a healthy Bautista isn't a perfect player. Not only is he not a five-category player, he's not even a four-category guy: last year's low batting average can be traced to an awful .215 BABIP, which should recover plenty. However, the best BABIP of his career was just .309 (in 2011), and that netted him just a .302 average. Something in the .270-ish range seems most likely for him, but I'd probably take the low on that.

But I'd still take Bautista with this pick. (I might not pair him with Prince, but that isn't the point.) The three categories in which he produces, he excels. He's got a ton of power, in a way that's more reminiscent of the late 90's and early 2000's than it is this age of pitchers and speedsters. He doesn't just have heavy power, but so few other players have even medium power these days that his homers are a lot more valuable than they once were. On top of that, Jose Reyes, Edwin Encarnacion, and maybe even Melky Cabrera and Brett Lowrie should give him plenty of runners to hit in, and give him plenty of pitches to hit. Expect to see him among the league's leaders in RBI's and Runs. Too bad he doesn't retain his 3B eligiblity.

14. Justin Upton OF .280/17/107/67/18
Pass. Upton's stock hasn't taken much of a hit after his dismal 2012, and I'm pretty surprised. All right, I know he was going in the second half of the first round in a lot of drafts last year, but let's face it, the second half of the first round is basically the same as the first half of the second. I don't know if it's denial, wishful thinking, or what, but it seems like if you're gonna draft someone who was this disappointing last year, you should only do so at a discount. What if he repeats and the power doesn't return? This is two seasons out of the last three in which he's hit fewer than 20 homers, so I don't think that possibility is all that shocking. Using an early second-round pick on a pick with as high a downside as Upton just isn't worth it.

It isn't just Upton's downside that makes me want to pass, though. It's that I'm not that thrilled with his upside. As a Mariner fan, I was downright grateful he turned down a trade to Seattle, actually. Upton possesses that mythical "power/speed" combo in theory, but he didn't exactly do either last year. In fact, his career high in steals is just 21. In the old days, that was big news. Not so much anymore. He's less like Mike Trout and more like Mike Cameron (but without jumping over outfield walls). He strikes out a ton (at least 121 every year since 2008) and it takes a BABIP miracle to give him a quality batting average. He hits homers (some years), but not as many as potentially comparable outfielders being drafted behind him like Josh Hamilton, Adam Jones, Giancarlo Stanton, and Curtis Granderson.

I suppose the argument to be made in his favor is his age: he's still just 25. Adam Jones took the Big Step this past year, and Upton himself seemed to do so in 2011. But what if he didn't? What if disappointing expectations runs in the family? That doesn't make him a useless fantasy player, but the risk of it is enough to make him a bad fantasy pick as long as their are lower-risk options with similar upside available. If he lights the world on fire next year, that will be exactly what his owners pay for. Anything less than greatness and this pick could have been better spent.

15. Justin Verlander SP 238.1/17/239/2.64/1.06
It isn't relevant, but is it weird to draft consecutive Justins? Either way, I don't like either pick. For different reasons, though. Verlander is among the least risky pitchers I can think of (but that's what I thought about Roy Halladay, so...) and he's very clearly at the top of his game. He's even consistent with the wins, which is hard for any great pitcher.

No, my disagreement with taking Verlander here is simply one of opportunity-cost. As long as Stephen Strasburg is out there, I think other starters are second-best. He just generates so many more whiffs than the next-greatest. On the flip side of things, I do agree that Verlander (with Clayton Kershaw) represents the clear next best ace pitchers. But the difference between him and other aces isn't so large that I want to get Verlander an entire round earlier than I can get, say, Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels, or David Price. The differences between Verlander and those types of pitchers are real, but small. Much smaller than the differences that still exist between position players at this point in the draft.

16. Adrian Beltre 3B .321/36/95/102/1
I admitted above to being a Mariners fan, and I honestly have had to overcome some anti-Beltre bias. But I'm over now, and I guess he can be as excellent as he wants with Texas and leave me to ponder just how much a player's home park can matter. Interestingly enough, he hit 16 of his 36 homers away from the Ballpark in Arlington and he batted just under .300 on the road, so you won't need to bench him during away games to enjoy his home greatness.

Beltre has become a beast, and there's little reason not to draft him like one. He's a four-category star, he hits in a dangerous lineup and he fields a thin position. He was significantly better than the next 3B getting drafted--David Wright--and significantly healthier than the one after that--Evan Longoria. Beltre is a safe choice in the second round, but a good one, a quality anchor at a position that will be a black hole on many fantasy teams.

17. Troy Tulowitzki SS .287/8/33/27/2
I always imagine myself as having this rule about never drafting anyone remotely fragile in the early rounds. The trouble is, that rule comes in direct conflict with my other rule about getting the best value I can. Since 2007, when Tulo powered the Rockies into the World Series, he's had one totally lost season (last year), one mostly lost season (2008, when his injuries presumptively hit his productivity and his playing time), and three All Star seasons (in two of which he still hit the DL). So he's all about risk and reward.

Few players even could be worth this kind of risk, but before the season I took him first overall in the RotoAuthority mock draft because he is so much more valuable in the power categories than any of his peers. He's basically a mashing first baseman with a slick glove for shortstop. For a player like that, this kind of discount is understandable. Assuming he looks healthy in Spring Training, I wouldn't have anything to say against someone who took Tulo here. It's a risk, even big one, but it has enormous upside. For what it's worth, I'd understand anyone who preferred to stay away.

18. Bryce Harper OF .270/22/98/59/18
This is a pick that puzzles me a little. Harper was the best prospect in baseball before last year, and he had a great year for any rookie (except, of course, Mike Trout) at just 19 years old. He showed a little bit of everything, and there's all the reason in the world to think that he'll improve into a truly great player of any age. I think he's likely to be a great fantasy player for 2013.

But I don't think that's certain. His line wasn't overwhelmingly good and he is still just 20 years old. Picking him in the second round is, to me, basically assuming the best-case scenario--that he'll develop in a linear way and make big improvements. He might. You could say he probably will, but he also might not. Plenty of other great prospects have taken steps other than directly into greatness in their second season. Harper could improve just a little, he could slip a bit, he could stay basically the same player, and in all cases he'll be a good player next year. In none of those cases, though, would Harper be worth a second round pick. Like Upton, there are several players who carry lower risk than he does. Unlike Upton, however, his upside doesn't seem to be limited by much at all. I'd pick Harper, but I'd wait another round and I wouldn't worry if he wasn't still there.

Here's how I'd reorder these picks: Jose Bautista, Adrian Beltre, Troy Tulowitzki, Verlander, Harper, Upton. The only three that I'd consider taking in the top of the second round are Bautista, Beltre, and Tulo.

 

 

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RotoAuthority Draft & ADP Analysis

By Tom Warman [March 30, 2012 at 9:00am CST]

The RotoAuthority draft was recently held, and you can find the draft results and reader votes for best draft here (my team is Men With Wood). My final pre-season ADP article will look at the RotoAuthority draft results and compare to ADP (courtesy of fantasypros.com):

Round One

  • Miguel Cabrera - His status was up in the air due to facial injuries when the draft was held, so he slipped to the third pick compared to his place at the top of the ADP board at 2.1. All indications are that he will be ready for Opening Day and is safe to draft with the top pick. "Ill Tempered SeaBass" had a nice third pick in the draft.
  • Carlos Gonzalez - The player with the lowest ADP at 16.8 (No. 19 highest ADP) taken in the first round at No. 10 overall. "Up" selected Gonzalez over Justin Upton, who went two slots later at No. 12 overall.  Although ADP favors Justin Upton (ADP of 14.5, which is the No. 14 highest ADP), Carlos Gonzalez has a higher batting average ceiling and may have more RBI opportunities hitting in Coors Field; Ron Shandler's Baseball Forecaster lists Upton at $27 and Gonzalez at $35.

Round Two

  • Carlos Santana - "Jeter's Gift Baskets" selected Santana at No. 20 compared to his ADP of 39.8. Although this may appear to be a massive reach, in two-catcher leagues catchers are drafted significantly higher than their ADP positions. Even in a deep catcher year, punting the position in two-catcher leagues is not a viable strategy. The run of starting pitchers began right after Santana was selected, but "Jeter's Gift Baskets" was able to round out his rotation late with Brandon McCarthy at No. 260 overall and Jeremy Hellickson at No. 197 overall.

Round Three

  • Felix Hernandez - As I discussed here, drafting an elite starter in the top rounds is an excellent idea because a 200-inning starter will have about 13% of your total innings (assuming 1500 inning limit) and a 600 at-bat hitter will have about 7% of your at-bats. I want to lock in 13% of my innings with quality stats since I have flexibility to find cumulative hitting statistics elsewhere, including by streaming at-bats. "Brewsterville Bruins" was in a perfect slot at No. 35 overall to grab whatever top-tier starting pitcher fell to the end of the third round.  In this case, that starter was King Felix (ADP of 28.6).

Round Four

  • David Wright - "Up" selected Wright at No. 39 overall compared to his 32.6 ADP, and this selection may pay significant dividends now that Wright has played in a Spring game and appears ready for Opening Day.
  • Ryan Zimmerman - "Francisco Scaramanga" drafted Zimmerman at No. 43 overall, a slight value compared to his 39.9 ADP. Given the sudden drop-off in quality at third base after the first few tiers, grabbing any third baseman at value in the first six rounds is advisable.
  • Michael Young - Although Young's selection by "Gramma Nutt Crushers" at No. 48 overall compared to 61.0 ADP may appear to be a reach, Young qualifies in Yahoo at first base, second base and third base, and he meets the multi-position eligibility target discussed here for streaming hitters in daily leagues with short benches.

Round Five

  • Zack Greinke - Although taking a second starter in Round 5 was not my plan entering the draft, when Greinke was available at No. 50 overall (46.9 ADP) after starters such as Jered Weaver and David Price had already been selected, I could not pass him up. He had the lowest SIERA in MLB among qualifying starters last year and, as I discussed here, is my pick to end up as a top-five starter.  He is also blowing away hitters in the Spring with an insane 28/2 strikeout-to-walk ratio.
  • Shin-Soo Choo - Tim Dierkes' "RobertCop" was concerned Choo would not fall to him in the sixth round and selected Choo No. 56 overall compared to 82.2 ADP. Choo is falling under many radar screens with owners forgetting he had back to back 20/20 with .300 batting average seasons in 2009 and 2010. Hopefully you are able to snag him a round or two later in drafts with owners that have forgotten how good a healthy Choo may be this year in his age-29 season.

Other Selections

  • Craig Kimbrel - The first closer -- Kimbrel -- was not selected until the first pick of the eighth round to "Depressed Fan" at No. 85 overall compared to 57.2 ADP. As I discussed here, do not start a closer run in your draft even if a closer is ranked as the highest remaining player on your draft sheet. Closers taken in Rounds 12 and 13 are just as likely to match Krimbrel's saves total given the random nature of the stat (Jason Motte at No. 144 overall; Brian Wilson at No. 149 overall; Jordan Walden at No. 151 overall; Sergio Santos at No. 152 overall). Having said that, if you are going to select Kimbrel, then No. 85 overall is the place to do it.
  • Sean Marshall - Tim Dierkes' "RobertCop" had one of the best picks of the draft with Marshall at No. 248 (compared to 247.0 ADP) after Ryan Madson was lost for the season. Taken in the 21st round, Marshall is a good example of the late-round flyer with big upside that owners should target. Rather than selecting a boring hitter in rounds 20+, take a high-upside hitter or starter or a setup man that is an injury away from shooting up in value but can still be easily released for a hot hitter during the season or kept to provide strong strikeout rates, and/or healthy ratio contributions.

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Online Draft Sleepers in Yahoo & ESPN Leagues - Hitters

By Tom Warman [March 16, 2012 at 9:00am CST]

Everyone that has done a live online draft knows the panic-inducing moments when you realize your time is down to 30 seconds ... 20 seconds ... 10 seconds to make your pick and you are frantically searching for a player to draft before you get stuck with the dreaded autopick. Often, that panic-induced owner ends up taking one of the players default ranked by the website near the top of the remaining players. Or, after the first 15 rounds many owners get lazy and take one of the top default ranked remaining players rather than searching for diamonds buried throughout the website's default rankings.

For these reasons, the website's default rankings oftentimes result in the ADP of a player tracking the default rankings, particularly after the first 150 picks in a draft when some owners are on auto-pilot mode taking the top default ranked remaining players. So, a good strategy is to identify players that are buried in the default rankings that may slip through the cracks of online drafts because of the website's default rankings. You can also place these players in your "queue" during the draft to avoid forgetting about them. This week we will look at hitters from free fantasy baseball providers Yahoo & ESPN that are default ranked by these websites too low and could provide draft bargains since they will not appear near the top of the list of available players sorted by default ranking (position eligibility is based on Yahoo and ESPN eligibility):

Catchers

  • Yahoo: Ryan Doumit (331) should see regular ABs as the primary DH and A.J. Pierzynski (338) gets a boost in value hitting second in the White Sox lineup. Both of these players are ranked extremely low and make nice second-catcher targets at the end of the draft.
  • ESPN: All catchers are ranked lower on ESPN than other websites, so catchers will fall in ESPN drafts. In two-catcher leagues, excellent value can be found in Buster Posey (127; compared to 75 on Yahoo) and J.P. Arencibia (274; compared to 184 on Yahoo).

First Basemen

  • Yahoo: Adam Dunn (251) has looked excellent in the spring and will be off the radar of owners following Yahoo default rankings. Gaby Sanchez (196) also makes a good target. Mat Gamel (1177) only qualifies at CI and for unknown reasons is ranked so low. Put Gamel in your "queue" for the last rounds of your draft and hope everyone forgets about him.
  • ESPN: Paul Goldschmidt (182; compared to 98 on Yahoo) and Kendrys Morales (249).

Second Basemen

Shortstops

  • Yahoo: Alexei Ramirez (149; compared to 86 on ESPN), and stash to DL immediately after draft Stephen Drew (221).
  • ESPN: Troy Tulowitzki (6; compared to 4 on Yahoo) went first in the RotoAuthority Mock Draft and I would be very happy taking him at 6. Otherwise, ESPN has its shortstops ranked high, but Zack Cozart (319) is an excellent end draft target.

Third Basemen

Outfielders

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Yahoo and MDC ADP Analysis & Draft Tiers: Second Basemen and Shortstops

By Tom Warman [March 9, 2012 at 9:00am CST]

This week's ADP-related article will rank second basemen and shortstops in order of their Yahoo and Mock Draft Central average draft positions, and then identify draft tiers and strategies (position qualifications referenced in this article are based on Yahoo position qualifications). Based on popular commentary requests, next week's ADP article will compare default player rankings from Yahoo, ESPN & CBS Sportsline to identify players whose ADP may slip in drafts on these websites as a result of undervalued default rankings:

Second Basemen

  1. Robinson Cano - 9.43 (7.9 Yahoo; 10.95 MDC)
  2. Dustin Pedroia - 18.91 (18.2 Yahoo; 19.61 MDC)
  3. Ian Kinsler - 22.67 (21.3 Yahoo; 24.04 MDC)
  4. Dan Uggla - 51.68 (48.3 Yahoo; 55.06 MDC)
  5. Brandon Phillips - 60.05 (59.7 Yahoo; 60.40 MDC)
  6. Michael Young - 64.3 (56.9 Yahoo; 71.70 MDC) - 1B, 3B
  7. Ben Zobrist - 66.40 (54.1 Yahoo; 78.69 MDC) - OF
  8. Chase Utley - 72.60 (66.8 Yahoo; 78.39 MDC)
  9. Rickie Weeks - 84.16 (89.4 Yahoo; 78.92 MDC)
  10. Michael Cuddyer - 87.61 (80.3 Yahoo; 94.92 MDC) - 1B, OF
  11. Howie Kendrick - 91.84 (79.3 Yahoo; 104.37 MDC) - 1B, OF
  12. Dustin Ackley - 139.41 (141.8 Yahoo; 137.01 MDC)
  13. Jemile Weeks - 154.60 (158.4 Yahoo; 150.79 MDC)
  14. Neil Walker - 154.68 (168.3 Yahoo; 141.06 MDC)
  15. Danny Espinosa - 170.28 (193.4 Yahoo; 147.15 MDC)
  16. Jason Kipnis - 192.96 (221.1 Yahoo; 164.82 MDC)
  17. Ryan Roberts - 205.98 (216. 3 Yahoo; 195.65 MDC)
  18. Kelly Johnson - 227.17 (214.8 Yahoo; 239.54 MDC)
  • Tiers:
    • Tier 1: Ranks 1-3 (Cano, Pedroia, Kinsler)
    • Tier 2: Ranks 4-11 (Uggla, Phillips, Young, Zobrist, Utley, Weeks, Cuddyer, Kendrick)
    • Tier 3: Ranks 12-18 (Ackley, Weeks, Walker, Espinosa, Kipnis, Roberts, Johnson)
  • Draft Strategy: Second base provides deep production with large tiers of players worth comparable value, so don't reach when the beginning of a tier starts to get drafted. ... Preferably, owners will take one of the last players from either Tier 1 or 2 as their second baseman. ... Since shortstop is not as deep, owners are likely to draft a second baseman to fill the MI roster spot. Owners that draft from Tier 1 should continue to target a low Tier 2 second baseman for MI rather than ignore second basemen following the early draft pick. ... Within Tier 2, Young, Cuddyer and Kendrick provide good value compared to ADP in Yahoo leagues, as the second base qualification provides additional roster flexibility for each player. ... Within Tier 3, Johnson provides excellent value compared to ADP and is a good MI target. ... Hill and Murphy are sneaky-upside MI selections outside the top 18 and provide depth at the position, so an owner does not need to reach within Tier 3.

Shortstops

  1. Troy Tulowitzki - 5.18 (5.0 Yahoo; 5.36 MDC)
  2. Jose Reyes - 20.04 (19.5 Yahoo; 20.58 MDC)
  3. Hanley Ramirez - 21.1 (21.9 Yahoo; 20.30 MDC)
  4. Starlin Castro - 41.14 (39.9 Yahoo; 42.38 MDC)
  5. Elvis Andrus - 45.76 (47.3 Yahoo; 44.22 MDC)
  6. Asdrubal Cabrera - 73.06 (70.5 Yahoo; 75.62 MDC)
  7. Jimmy Rollins - 83.47 (78.1 Yahoo; 88.84 MDC)
  8. Derek Jeter - 117.24 (112.7 Yahoo; 121.77 MDC)
  9. J.J. Hardy - 134.27 (134.9 Yahoo; 133.64 MDC)
  10. Dee Gordon - 142.35 (140. 9 Yahoo; 143.79 MDC)
  11. Alexei Ramirez - 150.36 (140.6 Yahoo; 160.11 MDC)
  12. Erick Aybar - 153.98 (163.3 Yahoo; 144.65 MDC)
  13. Emilio Bonifacio - 165.25 (156.6 Yahoo; 173.89 MDC) - 3B, OF
  14. Jhonny Peralta - 168.51 (162.7 Yahoo; 174.31 MDC)
  15. Stephen Drew - 190.86 (232.1 Yahoo; 149.61 MDC)
  16. Yunel Escobar - 206.29 (198.7 Yahoo; 213.87 MDC)
  17. Mike Aviles - 239.31 (234.6 Yahoo; 244.02 MDC) - 2B, 3B
  18. Ian Desmond - 242.71 (237.3 Yahoo; 248.12 MDC)
  • Tiers:
    • Tier 1: Rank 1 (Tulowitzki)
    • Tier 2: Ranks 2-3 (Reyes, Ramirez)
    • Tier 3: Ranks 4-5 (Castro, Andrus)
    • Tier 4: Ranks 6-8 (Cabrera, Rollins, Jeter)
    • Tier 5: Ranks 9-14 (Hardy, Gordon, Ramirez, Aybar, Bonifacio)
    • Tier 6: Ranks 15-18 (Drew, Escobar, Aviles, Desmond)
  • Draft Strategy: The drop in value as the draft progresses is much steeper and swifter at shortstop than at second base, and as a result, the draft tiers are smaller at shortstop. ... Outside of Tulowitzki (a legitimate top 3 pick), the shortstop position is being drafted too early compared to the production from players at other positions drafted with similar ADPs, so owners are encouraged to avoid reaching to fill the shortstop position from Tiers 2-4. ... Reyes (injury risk/BA floor similar to his xBAs from 2009 (.259), 2010 (.274) and 2011 (.290)/dropoff in SBs after getting paid) and Ramirez (lost 2011/position change affecting hitting) have too many concerns for me to draft in the second round. ... Andrus has been widely publicized as overrated and could make a nice selection if he falls to the 5th or sixth round; Ron Shandler's Baseball Forecaster notes Andrus has .300 BA and 50 SB upside, and with a few more HRs in his home ballpark he could provide Reyes-like value three or four rounds later. ... Each of the Tier 5 shortstops provide good value compared to ADP and will be my targeted shortstop picks. ... Owners only need to select one shortstop in the draft and then avoid the position by filling out the MI roster spot from the deeper and more talented second-base pool.

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Yahoo and MDC ADP Analysis & Draft Tiers: Starting Pitchers

By Tom Warman [March 2, 2012 at 9:00am CST]

This week's ADP-related article will rank starting pitchers in order of their Yahoo and Mock Draft Central (MDC) average draft positions, and then identify draft tiers and strategies (position qualifications referenced in this article are based on Yahoo position qualifications). Using the standard 12-team mixed league format and six starting pitchers per team, the first 72 starting pitchers will be ranked. The draft tiers will have 12 starters per tier so that the tiers represent Starters Nos. 1-6 in a standard format with 12 teams each carrying six starters.

  1. Justin Verlander - 10.44 (12.6 Yahoo; 8.27 MDC)
  2. Clayton Kershaw - 14.6 (13.9 Yahoo; 15.3 MDC)
  3. Roy Halladay - 15.17 (15.6 Yahoo; 14.74 MDC)
  4. Cliff Lee - 21.15 (22.5 Yahoo; 19.80 MDC)
  5. Tim Lincecum - 25.88 (27.3 Yahoo; 24.46 MDC)
  6. Felix Hernandez - 28.01 (29.6 Yahoo; 26.42 MDC)
  7. CC Sabathia - 30.62 (30.6 Yahoo; 30.64 MDC)
  8. Cole Hamels - 32.13 (33.4 Yahoo; 30.85 MDC)
  9. Jered Weaver - 34.34 (35.3 Yahoo; 33.38 MDC)
  10. Dan Haren - 45.08 (47.8 Yahoo; 42.35 MDC)
  11. David Price - 45.89 (53.7 Yahoo; 38.07 MDC)
  12. Zack Greinke - 47.19 (45.0 Yahoo; 49.38 MDC)
  13. Yovani Gallardo - 55.14 (61.3 Yahoo; 48.98 MDC)
  14. Jon Lester - 56.73 (62.0 Yahoo; 51.45 MDC)
  15. Stephen Strasburg - 60.61 (57.1 Yahoo; 64.12 MDC)
  16. Matt Cain - 61.66 (62.6 Yahoo; 60.71 MDC)
  17. James Shields - 73.30 (79.8 Yahoo; 66.79 MDC)
  18. Ian Kennedy - 75.00 (79.9 Yahoo; 70.10 MDC)
  19. C.J. Wilson - 85.04 (84.6 Yahoo; 85.48 MDC)
  20. Madison Bumgarner - 85.48 (94.6 Yahoo; 76.35 MDC)
  21. Mat Latos - 91.78 (112.9 Yahoo; 70.66 MDC)
  22. Daniel Hudson - 93.33 (101.0 Yahoo; 85.66 MDC)
  23. Josh Johnson - 99.03 (97.5 Yahoo; 100.55 MDC)
  24. Tommy Hanson - 99.48 (104.9 Yahoo; 94.06 MDC)
  25. Matt Moore - 99.86 (97.4 Yahoo; 102.32 MDC) - RP Only in Yahoo
  26. Josh Beckett - 99.88 (108.5 Yahoo; 91.25 MDC)
  27. Michael Pineda - 100.29 (102.8 Yahoo; 97.78 MDC)
  28. Ricky Romero - 101.36 (115.3 Yahoo; 87.41 MDC)
  29. Yu Darvish - 102.48 (82.3 Yahoo; 122.66 MDC)
  30. Adam Wainwright - 108.94 (112.3 Yahoo; 105.58 MDC)
  31. Matt Garza - 109.57 (109.5 Yahoo; 109.63 MDC)
  32. Gio Gonzalez - 111.87 (117.8 Yahoo; 105.93 MDC)
  33. Brandon Beachy - 118.38 (121.7 Yahoo; 115.06 MDC)
  34. Chris Carpenter - 127.57 (128.5 Yahoo; 126.64 MDC)
  35. Jordan Zimmermann - 128.16 (136.8 Yahoo; 119.52 MDC)
  36. Johnny Cueto - 133.57 (153.8 Yahoo; 113.34 MDC)
  37. Cory Luebke - 134.26 (131.4 Yahoo; 137.12 MDC)
  38. Anibal Sanchez - 136.49 (142.8 Yahoo; 130.17 MDC)
  39. Tim Hudson - 146.97 (156.6 Yahoo; 137.34 MDC)
  40. Shaun Marcum - 148.32 (150.3 Yahoo; 146.33 MDC)
  41. Jeremy Hellickson - 152.25 (175.6 Yahoo; 128.89 MDC)
  42. Ubaldo Jimenez - 153.49 (151.8 Yahoo; 155.18 MDC)
  43. Max Scherzer - 158.88 (168.1 Yahoo; 149.65 MDC)
  44. Neftali Feliz - 162.60 (165.0 Yahoo; 160.19 MDC) RP Only in Yahoo
  45. Ervin Santana - 163.56 (176.6 Yahoo; 150.52 MDC)
  46. Brandon Morrow - 167.53 (152.1 Yahoo; 182.96 MDC)
  47. Hiroki Kuroda - 168.36 (164.9 Yahoo; 171.82 MDC)
  48. Jaime Garcia - 174.14 (170.9 Yahoo; 177.38 MDC)
  49. Derek Holland - 177.00 (185.1 Yahoo; 168.89 MDC)
  50. Doug Fister - 183.44 (181.8 Yahoo; 185.08 MDC)
  51. Wandy Rodriguez - 183.91 (195.0 Yahoo; 172.81 MDC)
  52. Jhoulys Chacin - 192.72 (192.2 Yahoo; 193.24 MDC)
  53. Clay Buchholz - 200.11 (190.8 Yahoo; 209.42 MDC)
  54. Justin Masterson - 201.66 (202.7 Yahoo; 200.62 MDC)
  55. Ryan Dempster - 208.06 (180.5 Yahoo; 235.61 MDC)
  56. Alexi Ogando - 208.76 (207.9 Yahoo; 209.61 MDC)
  57. Jair Jurrjens - 212.04 (209.4 Yahoo; 214.68 MDC)
  58. John Danks - 213.02 (235.1 Yahoo; 190.94 MDC)
  59. Trevor Cahill - 213.09 (247.6 Yahoo; 178.58 MDC)
  60. Chris Sale - 214.14 (195.5 Yahoo; 232.78 MDC) RP Only in Yahoo
  61. Bud Norris - 217.75 (205.0 Yahoo; 230.49 MDC)
  62. Colby Lewis - 217.93 (232.3 Yahoo; 203.56 MDC)
  63. Ivan Nova - 219.82 (201.2 Yahoo; 238.43 MDC)
  64. Ted Lilly - 221.97 (212.9 Yahoo; 231.03 MDC)
  65. Brandon McCarthy - 222.73 (240.4 Yahoo; 205.06 MDC)
  66. Edwin Jackson - 227.65 (218.1 Yahoo; 237.19 MDC)
  67. Johan Santana - 228.90 (228.7 Yahoo; 229.09 MDC)
  68. Scott Baker - 229.44 (247.4 Yahoo; 211.47 MDC)
  69. Edinson Volquez - 229.48 (229.9 Yahoo; 229.05 MDC)
  70. Ryan Vogelsong - 230.33 (240.8 Yahoo; 219.85 MDC)
  71. Aroldis Chapman - 230.47 (220.3 Yahoo; 240.63 MDC) RP Only in Yahoo
  72. Roy Oswalt - 231.4 (232.0 Yahoo; 230.80 MDC)
  • Notes: Javier Vazquez - 228.17 (241.7 Yahoo; 214.64 MDC) was not included since he appears to be retired and is unlikely to be drafted in the top 72 starters.
  • Tiers:
    • Starting Pitcher No. 1 in 12-team mixed leagues (Ranks 1-12): Verlander, Kershaw, Halladay, Lee, Lincecum, Hernandez, Sabathia, Hamels, Weaver, Haren, Price, Greinke.
    • Starting Pitcher No. 2 in 12-team mixed leagues (Ranks 13-24): Gallardo, Lester, Strasburg, Cain, Shields, Kennedy, Wilson, Bumgarner, Latos, Hudson, Johnson, Hanson.
    • Starting Pitcher No. 3 in 12 team mixed leagues (Ranks 25-36): Moore, Beckett, Pineda, Romero, Darvish, Wainwright, Garza, Gonzalez, Beachy, Carpenter, Zimmerman, Cueto.
    • Starting Pitcher No. 4 in 12-team mixed leagues (Ranks 37-48): Luebke, Sanchez, Hudson, Marcum, Hellickson, Jimenez, Scherzer, Feliz, Santana, Morrow, Kuroda, Garcia.
    • Starting Pitcher No. 5 in 12-team mixed leagues (Ranks 49-60): Holland, Fister, Rodriguez, Chacin, Buchholz, Masterson, Dempster, Ogando, Jurrjens, Danks, Cahill, Sale.
    • Starting Pitcher No. 6 in 12-team mixed leagues (Ranks 61-72): Norris, Lewis, Nova, Lilly, McCarthy, Jackson, Santana, Baker, Volquez, Vogelsong, Chapman, Oswalt.
  • Draft Strategy: Starting pitching is top heavy within the first three tiers and then levels out into deep but interchangeable quality.  An owner should make sure to have at least three starters from the first three tiers since the quality of starting pitching is so top heavy. ...  Tiers 4, 5, 6 and other draftable starters are deep, and owners can feel comfortable waiting on drafting within these tiers. ... When drafting, the starters in Tiers 1-3 should be used as guideposts to make sure that you are drafting a starter from each tier. If you realize that only a few starters from Tier 1 remain and you have not drafted a starter, you should be alerted that you need to draft a No. 1 starter (same with Tiers 2 and 3). Similarly, if all of the Tier 1 and 2 starters have been drafted and you only have one starter, then you should be alerted that you need to draft multiple Tier 3 starters. ... Within Tier 1, Haren, Price and Greinke provide excellent value compared to their ADP, and an owner can feel comfortable waiting on those three to draft their No. 1 starter.  However, if any of the top six ranked starters fall too far below their ADPs, then an owner should jump at the chance to draft any of those six. ... Within Tier 2, Bumgarner and Hudson provide solid value at the end of the tier. ... Tier 3 is still loaded with top-heavy talent compared to ADP such as Moore, Garza, Beachy & Zimmermann. Within Tier 4, Luebke, Sanchez & Feliz stick out as excellent value picks.  Tiers 5, 6 and other draftable starters provide deep value, so owners should avoid reaching for any starter within these tiers since the first six starters listed as "other draftable starters" make excellent fallback plans as No. 6 starters. Lilly, McCarthy & Baker in Tier 6 have more value than most of the Tier 5 starters and provide excellent targets compared to their ADP.
  • Draft Strategy (Yahoo ADPs): Owners should keep in mind the starters listed as "RP Only in Yahoo" means that they will not appear within the list of starting pitchers in the draft tool. For this reason, owners searching for starting pitchers may overlook them. Do not make this mistake. Within Yahoo's ADP, Darvish (Yahoo Default Ranking 85 compared to 82.3 Yahoo ADP), Dempster (Yahoo Default Ranking 180 compared to 180.5 Yahoo ADP), Sale (Yahoo Default Ranking 199 compared to 195.5 Yahoo ADP), & Nova (Yahoo Default Ranking 381 compared to 201.2 Yahoo ADP) are being drafted too early in Yahoo drafts (even though Darvish, Dempster & Sale are nice targets at their MDC ADP). Baker (Yahoo Default Ranking 230 compared to 247.4 Yahoo ADP), McCarthy (Yahoo Default Ranking 225 compared to 240.4 Yahoo ADP) & Cahill (Yahoo Default Ranking 255 compared to 247.6 Yahoo ADP) are being drafted too low in Yahoo drafts.

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Tumbling ADPs

By Tim Dierkes [February 28, 2012 at 12:52pm CST]

Today in the New York Times, RotoWire's Derek VanRiper posed an interesting question:

Would you be much worse off drafting with 2011 cheat sheets instead of 2012 ones?

VanRiper's point is that "there is a reason that 'last year’s bums' often return a profit the following season."  One simple way of determining last year's biggest bums is by finding the difference between 2012 and 2011 average draft position numbers.  Fortunately I have records of last year's ADPs, so here's the list minus certain players who are unsigned or out for all of 2012:

  1. Ian Stewart: 278.7 difference
  2. Scott Rolen: 266.04
  3. Chone Figgins: 192.04
  4. Adam Dunn: 186.69
  5. Ryan Ludwick: 167.43
  6. Francisco Liriano: 162.5
  7. Pedro Alvarez: 162.01
  8. Alex Rios: 157.66
  9. Aubrey Huff: 156.01
  10. Chad Billingsley: 151.07
  11. Ryan Dempster: 148.07
  12. Alfonso Soriano: 139.44
  13. Casey McGehee: 138.86
  14. Grady Sizemore: 138.38
  15. Randy Wells: 137.64
  16. Mike Aviles: 134.73
  17. Geovany Soto: 132.84
  18. Kelly Johnson: 125.89
  19. Bobby Abreu: 124.84
  20. Juan Uribe: 124.78

Many of the starting pitchers are intriguing, as well as Dunn, Alvarez, Rios, Aviles, Soto, and Johnson.  Other interesting names who have taken an ADP tumble include Colby Rasmus, Ubaldo Jimenez, Clay Buchholz, Joakim Soria, Jason Kubel, Andre Ethier, Gavin Floyd, Colby Lewis, John Danks, Torii Hunter, Derek Jeter, Kurt Suzuki, Aaron Hill, Alexei Ramirez, Joe Mauer, Chase Utley, Edwin Jackson, Brandon Morrow, and Jason Heyward.

I know it seems disgusting to draft Dunn right now, but a year ago he was considered a fourth-round player.  Rios went the following round.  Liriano and Billingsley, seventh or eighth round starters.  Ubaldo was a fourth-round rotation anchor, and Ethier the same for your outfield.  Fight the instinct to avoid all of last year's bums, and you'll surely find bargains.

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Yahoo and MDC ADP Analysis & Draft Tiers: Catchers & Third Basemen

By Tom Warman [February 24, 2012 at 9:30am CST]

This week's ADP-related article will rank catchers and third basemen in order of their Yahoo and Mock Draft Central average draft positions, and then identify draft tiers and strategies (position qualifications referenced in this article are based on Yahoo position qualifications):

Catchers

  1. Carlos Santana - 40.59 (44.8 Yahoo; 36.37 MDC) 1B
  2. Mike Napoli - 47.13 (47.4 Yahoo; 46.86 MDC) 1B
  3. Brian McCann - 52.91 (55.0 Yahoo; 50.81 MDC)
  4. Buster Posey - 65.15 (70.9 Yahoo; 59.40 MDC)
  5. Joe Mauer - 80.07 (80.9 Yahoo; 79.24 MDC) 1B
  6. Matt Wieters - 95.46 (94.1 Yahoo; 96.81 MDC)
  7. Miguel Montero - 105.5 (108.2 Yahoo; 102.80 MDC)
  8. Alex Avila - 107.2 (104.9 Yahoo; 109.50 MDC)
  9. Yadier Molina - 177.3 (178.8 Yahoo; 175.80 MDC)
  10. J.P. Arencibia - 177.89 (175.9 Yahoo; 179.88 MDC)
  11. Geovany Soto - 203.02 (175.7 Yahoo; 230.34 MDC)
  12. Wilson Ramos - 212.84 (214.4 Yahoo; 211.28 MDC)
  13. Russell Martin - 217.26 (193.4 Yahoo; 241.11 MDC)
  14. Nick Hundley - 226.95 (215.2 Yahoo; 238.69 MDC)
  15. Kurt Suzuki - 229.58 (212.1 Yahoo; 247.05 MDC)
  16. Carlos Ruiz - 229.74 (211.4 Yahoo; 248.07 MDC)
  17. A.J. Pierzynski - 231.16 (211.7 Yahoo; 250.61 MDC)
  18. Chris Iannetta - 231.37 (215.7 Yahoo; 247.04 MDC)
  19. Jarrod Saltalamacchia - 232.01 (224.0 Yahoo; 240.02 MDC)
  20. Ryan Doumit - 233.85 (225.1 Yahoo; 242.60 MDC)
  21. Jonathan Lucroy - 234.47 (222.3 Yahoo; 246.63 MDC)
  22. Ramon Hernandez - 235.14 (222.7 Yahoo; 247.57 MDC)
  23. Yorvit Torrealba - 235.75 (--- Yahoo; 235.75 MDC)
  24. Salvador Perez - 235.97 (232.0 Yahoo; 239.93 MDC)
  25. Devin Mesoraco - 236.01 (227.3 Yahoo; 244.71 MDC)
  26. John Buck - 236.23 (222.9 Yahoo; 249.55 MDC)
  27. Miguel Olivo - 240.87 (232.8 Yahoo; 248.94 MDC)
  28. Rod Barajas - 282.28 (--- Yahoo; 282.28 MDC)
  29. Ryan Hanigan - 283.32 (--- Yahoo; 283.32 MDC)
  • Tiers -
    • Tier #1: Ranks 1-4 (Santana; Napoli; McCann; Posey)
    • Tier #2: Ranks 5-7 (Mauer; Wieters; Montero)
    • Tier #3: Ranks 8-10 (Avila; Molina; Arencibia)
    • Tier #4: Ranks 11-20 (Soto; Ramos; Martin; Hundley; Suzuki; Ruiz; Pierzynski; Iannetta; Saltalamacchia; Doumit)
    • Tier #5: Ranks 21-29 (Lucroy; Hernandez; Torrealba; Perez; Mesoraco; Buck; Olivo; Barajas; Hanigan)
  • Draft Strategy (assuming standard 12-team mixed league with two active catchers) - In a two-catcher league, the top 15 or so catchers rarely fall to their ADPs. The catcher position is top heavy, and the Tier 4 and 5 catchers are a crapshoot of similarly situated players. For this reason, owners should target a Tier 1 or 2 catcher to pair with a Tier 4 catcher. Under this strategy, owners should target Santana, McCann, Wieters or Montero as their top catcher at or slightly above their ADPs, and then let the Tier 3 and 4 catcher runs play out before grabbing any Tier 4 catcher that slips compared to ADP. If owners avoid the first two Tiers then they should slightly reach for Molina or Arencibia compared to ADP, and target a stronger Tier 4 catcher such as Ramos. Tier 5 catchers to target as either second active catchers for those who punt the position due to its depth or third catchers to stream are Perez and Mesoraco. Those two have the most upside within Tier 5.
  • Draft Strategy (assuming standard 12-team mixed league with one active catcher) - In a one-catcher league, owners will have significantly better options for backup catchers on their bench to stream on off-days for their starting catcher. For this reason, owners should avoid the Tier 1 catchers and draft Wieters or Montero in the 90-115 range. If those catchers are missed, owners should wait until around the 170 range to draft Molina or Arencibia, and then pair either with a high-upside Tier 4 catcher such as Ramos, Iannetta, or Saltalamacchia. Since there will be safe catcher options on the waiver wire the backup catcher should be one with higher upside.
  • Draft Strategy (Yahoo ADPs) - Santana (Yahoo default ranking 45) is falling slightly more in Yahoo drafts compared to MDC, and is easier to draft if falling into the fourth round. Soto (Yahoo default ranking 178) and Martin (Yahoo default ranking 276) are overrated in Yahoo drafts compared to MDC. For Soto, his 175.7 Yahoo ADP is caused by his 178 default ranking. Martin's 193.4 Yahoo ADP is inexplicable.

Third Basemen

  1. Jose Bautista - 4.92 (5.5 Yahoo; 4.34 MDC) OF
  2. Evan Longoria - 12.64 (13.4 Yahoo; 11.88 MDC)
  3. Adrian Beltre - 29.15 (26.7 Yahoo; 31.60 MDC)
  4. David Wright - 32.01 (31.2 Yahoo; 32.82 MDC)
  5. Ryan Zimmerman - 40.01 (37.4 Yahoo; 42.62 MDC)
  6. Alex Rodriguez - 53.6 (46.0 Yahoo; 61.20 MDC)
  7. Brett Lawrie - 55.08 (54.4 Yahoo; 55.75 MDC)
  8. Pablo Sandoval - 56.43 (42.7 Yahoo; 70.15 MDC) 1B
  9. Michael Young - 64.79 (58.0 Yahoo; 71.58 MDC) 1B, 2B
  10. Kevin Youkilis - 74.22 (63.9 Yahoo; 84.53 MDC) 1B
  11. Aramis Ramirez - 75.03 (80.7 Yahoo; 69.36 MDC)
  12. Mark Reynolds - 116.06 (114.0 Yahoo; 118.12 MDC) 1B
  13. David Freese - 149.98 (136.8 Yahoo; 163.16 MDC)
  14. Martin Prado - 168.59 (148.8 Yahoo; 188.38 MDC) OF
  15. Mike Moustakas - 198.84 (181.8 Yahoo; 215.88 MDC)
  16. Ryan Roberts - 209.43 (221.7 Yahoo; 197.15 MDC) 2B
  17. Edwin Encarnacion - 214.16 (197.2 Yahoo; 231.12 MDC) 1B
  18. Mat Gamel - 222.35 (---Yahoo; 222.35 MDC)
  • Notes - Emilio Bonafacio is not listed since owners will slot him at SS.
  • Tiers -
    • Tier #1: Ranks 1-2 (Bautista; Longoria)
    • Tier #2: Ranks 3-8 (Beltre; Wright; Zimmerman; Rodriguez; Lawrie; Sandoval)
    • Tier #3: Ranks 9-12 (Young; Youkilis; Ramirez; Reynolds)
    • Tier #4: Ranks 13-18 (Freese; Prado; Moustakas; Roberts; Encarnacion; Gamel)
  • Draft Strategy (assuming standard 12-team mixed league with active roster slots for 1B, 3B and CI) - Due to the lack of depth at third base, owners will want to fill their CI slot with a first baseman since first basemen in the 12-18 range are significantly better than the third basemen in this range. Owners are encouraged to select the Tier 1 third basemen in the first round (and pair with a Round 2 hitter with a good batting average). The Tier 2 third basemen offer similar value but should be targeted by any owner that needs a third baseman when there are only a few Tier 2 third basemen left. There is a significant drop in quality between the Tier 3 and 4 third basemen, so owners should not let all of the Tier 3 players get drafted before they have a third basemen. Within Tier 4, owners should target Moustakas, Encarnacion and Gamel compared to their ADPs as bench CIs with upside.
  • Draft Strategy (Yahoo ADPs) - The top third basemen are being taken earlier in Yahoo leagues, particularly A-Rod and Sandoval, so owners should not reach for Tier 2 third basemen since they offer similar value. Tier 4 players Freese and Prado are being drafted much too high in Yahoo leagues, most likely by owners that were left reaching for a third baseman since they missed out on Tiers 1-3. Avoid this mistake. Gamel makes a nice end-draft bench pick in Yahoo leagues since his Yahoo default ranking is 1177, so he will not even be on most owners' radar screens during Yahoo drafts.

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Yahoo and MDC ADP Analysis & Draft Tiers - First Basemen

By Tom Warman [February 17, 2012 at 8:00am CST]

Yahoo has released their draft results so this week's ADP article will rank first basemen in order of their Yahoo and Mock Draft Central average draft positions, and then identify draft tiers and strategies. In the coming weeks I will look at other hitting positions and pitchers. Here we go with the first basemen (position qualifications referenced in this article are based on Yahoo position qualifications):

  1. Miguel Cabrera - 2.06 (2.52 MDC; 1.6 Yahoo)
  2. Albert Pujols - 3.13 (2.85 MDC; 3.4 Yahoo)
  3. Joey Votto - 8.51 (9.32 MDC; 7.7 Yahoo)
  4. Adrian Gonzalez - 9.14 (9.37 MDC; 8.9 Yahoo)
  5. Prince Fielder - 13.49 (14.07 MDC; 12.9 Yahoo)
  6. Mark Teixeira - 25.29 (27.17 MDC; 23.4 Yahoo)
  7. Paul Konerko - 52.22 (48.24 MDC; 56.2 Yahoo)
  8. Eric Hosmer - 63.65 (52.79 MDC; 74.5 Yahoo)
  9. Michael Morse - 74.49 (78.88 MDC; 70.1 Yahoo)
  10. Lance Berkman - 85.98 (92.15 MDC; 79.8 Yahoo) (OF eligibility)
  11. Ryan Howard - 115.38 (148.45 MDC; 82.3 Yahoo)
  12. Billy Butler - 126.48 (121.55 MDC; 131.4 Yahoo)
  13. Freddie Freeman - 133.51 (121.91 MDC; 145.1 Yahoo)
  14. Nick Swisher - 136.12 (122.93 MDC; 149.3 Yahoo)
  15. Paul Goldschmidt - 142.75 (146.7 MDC; 138.8 Yahoo)
  16. Ike Davis - 151.75 (174.00 MDC; 129.5 Yahoo)
  17. Adam Lind - 163.11 (150.82 MDC; 175.4 Yahoo)
  18. Mark Trumbo - 166.42 (141.94 MDC; 190.9 Yahoo)
  19. Justin Morneau - 196.35 (162.10 MDC; 230.6 Yahoo)
  20. Kendrys Morales - 207.81 (213.22 MDC; 202.4 Yahoo)
  21. Carlos Lee - 208.16 (190.11 MDC; 226.2 Yahoo) (OF)
  22. Gaby Sanchez - 214.41 (198.21 MDC; 230.6 Yahoo)
  23. Brandon Belt - 223.51 (206.12 MDC; 240.9 Yahoo) (OF)
  24. Lucas Duda - 224.76 (226.91 MDC; 222.6 Yahoo) (OF)
  25. Todd Helton - 226.05 (220.50 MDC; 231.6 Yahoo)
  26. John Mayberry - 228.17 (227.13 MDC; 229.2 Yahoo) (OF)
  27. Justin Smoak - 232.34 (222.97 MDC; 241.7 Yahoo)
  28. Derrek Lee - 235.36 (232.72 MDC; 238 Yahoo)
  29. Carlos Pena - 236.61 (221.81 MDC; 251.4 Yahoo)
  30. Adam Dunn - 237.57 (227.93 MDC; 247.2 Yahoo)
  31. Aubrey Huff - 238.17 (253.33 MDC; 223.0 Yahoo) (OF)
  32. Adam LaRoche - 242.99 (242.99 MDC; --- Yahoo)
  33. Mitch Moreland - 244.10 (237.09 MDC; 251.1 Yahoo) (OF)
  34. James Loney - 245.68 (225.35 MDC; 266 Yahoo)
  35. Mike Carp - 247.66 (231.62 MDC; 263.7 Yahoo) (OF)
  36. Jesus Guzman - 255.40 (255.40 MDC; --- Yahoo)
  37. Garrett Jones - 255.68 (281.25 MDC; 230.1 Yahoo)
  38. Casey Kotchman - 262.64 (262.64 MDC; --- Yahoo)
  39. Anthony Rizzo - 268.99 (309.17 MDC; 228.8 Yahoo)
  • Tiers -
    • Tier 1: Ranks 1-6 (Cabrera; Pujols; Votto; Gonzalez; Fielder; Teixeira)
    • Tier 2: Ranks 7-10 (Konerko; Hosmer; Morse; Berkman)
    • Tier 3: Ranks 11-17 (Howard; Butler; Freeman; Swisher; Goldschmidt; Davis; Lind)
    • Tier 4: Ranks 18-21 (Trumbo; Morneau; Morales; Lee)
    • Tier 5: Ranks 22-30 (Sanchez; Belt; Duda; Helton; Mayberry; Smoak; Lee; Pena; Dunn)
    • Tier 6: Ranks 31-39 (Huff; LaRoche; Moreland; Loney; Carp; Guzman; Jones; Kotchman; Rizzo)
  • Draft Strategy (assuming standard 12 team mixed league with active roster slots for 1B, 3B and CI) - 1B is significantly deeper this year than 3B so owners will want to draft their CI and their bench CI from the 1B position. If you were to draft a CI from the 3B position, you would be selecting from David Freese as the 13th 3B per Yahoo ADP compared to Freddie Freeman as the 13th 1B. The dropoff is even more significant the deeper you go with 3B as Scott Rolen is 18th, Ian Stewart is 19th and Placido Polanco is 20th (all per Yahoo) compared to the Tier 4 and 5 1Bs. Therefore, owners should target a Tier 1 or 2 1B for their 1B slot, a Tier 3 1B for their CI position, and a Tier 4 or 5 1B for their bench CI slot. Selecting Cabrera with a top 3 pick, and then selecting multiple Tier 2 and 3 1Bs to CI and bench is another strategy since Cabrera will likely have 3B eligibility by early April, at which time you can activate the 1B drafted to your bench into the 1B slot vacated by Cabrera.
  • Tier Values - The average draft slots for the first two tiers is consistent with their projected values. Within Tier 3, owners should target Freeman, Goldschmidt, Davis & Lind compared to their draft positions. Owners should then skip drafting the Tier 4 1Bs and use picks in the 160-210 range to fill out their rotations and back-end closers. Within the Tier 5 1Bs, Sanchez is an excellent value as a CI or to the bench. In addition, Belt, Duda, Pena & Dunn provide good value as bench CIs at their draft positions. The Tier 6 1Bs will likely be added and dropped throughout the season corresponding to hot and cold streaks - LaRoche, Moreland & Carp should be the players drafted within this tier as bench CIs.

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ADP Analysis: Underrated Hitters

By Tom Warman [February 10, 2012 at 8:20am CST]

Every Friday during the pre-season I will be analyzing ADP-related issues using the most recent information courtesy of Mock Draft Central and other sources. This week we are looking at hitters that are underrated in relation to their ADPs (unless stated otherwise, all stat references are for the 2011 season):

  • Catchers: Matt Wieters (ADP 98.90; 6th C), Salvador Perez (ADP 236.01; 17th C) and Devin Mesoraco (ADP 242.05; 24th C) - Wieters is a nice post-hype sleeper.  His home runs jumped from 11 in 502 plate-appearances in 2010 to 22 in 551 PAs in 2011. His HR/FB jumped from 8% in 2010 to 13.6% in 2011, and his ISO also jumped from .128 in 2010 to .188 in 2011. Wieters is a player developing and entering his prime. Ron Shandler writes in his 2012 Baseball Forecaster that the switch-hitter has 30-homer upside. Wieters also has AVG upside, as his BABIP was just .276 last season after being .356 in 385 PAs in 2009 and .287 in 2010.  Look to Wieters' 2011 second half xBA of .285 as the potential upside. Wieters also projects to hit 5th in Baltimore's lineup. ...  Perez is a nice C2 target as he projects to hit seventh in a big-upside lineup in Kansas City, and should see a substantial amount of the catcher at-bats without a viable backup. His .331 average in 2011 is not sustainable, as he had a .362 BABIP, but he hit in the .280-.290 range in the minors with good counting stats (2011 - 9 HRs and 43 RBIs in 309 Double-A PAs; 2010 - 7 HRs and 53 RBIs in 396 PAs in high class A). ... Mesoraco hits in a great home ballpark and has the most upside of any C2 relative to his ADP. If he gets the Dusty Baker treatment and sits the bench, he can easily be dropped since he's a late pick, or he can be streamed as your C3 to maximize at-bats from your catcher position.
  • First Basemen: Adam Lind (ADP 151.70; 14th 1B) and Gaby Sanchez (ADP 198.37; 17th 1B) - Lind is projected to hit cleanup -- behind walk machine Jose Bautista -- and plays in the hitter-friendly AL East.  His BABIP dropped to .265 in 2011, which resulted in an average of just .251.  However, his first-half xBA of .312 in 2011 and .311 xBA/.305 AVG in 2009 shows his AVG ceiling. Consistent power throughout his career -- and a bump from his 17% HR/FB in 2011 to the 20% he had in 2009 -- may bring stats close to his 2009 season (35 HRs/114 RBIs). The 22% HR/FB in first half of 2011 shows this is possible. I like Lind more than the three first basemen being drafted immediately before him: Paul Goldschmidt at ADP 147.60; Ryan Howard at ADP 145.73; and Mark Trumbo at ADP 142.61. ... Sanchez will be hitting in an improved Miami lineup with the addition of Jose Reyes, likely rebound of Hanley Ramirez, and further development of Mike Stanton and Logan Morrison. Sanchez's line drive rate (16.7% in 2009, 17.1% in 2010 and 20% in 2011) and BB/K ratio (.56% in 2010, .76% in 2011) have continued to improve, which shows his development as a hitter. This may be the year he avoids the second-half fade. First base is not deep this year, and after Mike Morse is taken in the range of the 5th-7th rounds, I like targeting Lind or Sanchez relative to their ADPs.
  • Second Basemen: Aaron Hill (232.96 ADP; 17th 2B) - Hill projects to hit second in the Arizona lineup, in front of stud Justin Upton, and should have a good chance to repeat the 103 runs he scored in 2009.  He also has massive upside, as evidenced by his 2009 (36 HRs/108 RBIs) and 2010 (26 HRs) seasons. In 2011, he also added a speed element, with 21 swipes after his previous career high had been six in 2009. If he can put it all together and avoid nagging leg injuries, he will easily outproduce his draft position. Hill is a strong middle-infield target after you fill your second-base slot, since shortstop is not as deep this year as 2B.
  • Shortstops: Alexei Ramirez (167.37 ADP; 13th SS) - Ramirez projects to hit second, so he should have good run opportunities, and with his health and consistenty over the course of his career, he has a chance to blow past his career high of 83 runs in 2010. The right-handed hitter has a good power/speed combo that should put him in the teens in both homers and steals. He may be a boring pick for those who do not want to reach for a shortstop, but helps win championships. I prefer targeting Ramirez as an underrated SS compared to the two shortstops off the board immediately after: Emilio Bonifacio (172.25 ADP; 14th SS) has playing-time concerns and no power, and Jhonny Peralta (175.79 ADP; 15th SS) has no speed and a lower batting average floor (.245 xBA in 2009, .260 xBA in 2010 and .262 xBA in 2011).   
  • Third Basemen: In an incredibly weak year for third basemen, I like targeting Evan Longoria (ADP 11.49) in the middle of the first round or Kevin Youkilis (ADP 84.66, 9th 3B) later on.  Longoria's unlucky .239 BABIP kept his average down, but his .286 xBA showed what his average should have been. His development as a hitter was demonstrated by his BB/K average spiking from .58% in 2010 to .86% in 2011. Also, his HR/FB returned to 18% after dropping to 11% in 2010. His upside is stated in Shandler's Forecaster as 40 HR/.290 AVG.  Given the position scarcity of 3B this season, Longoria is underrated at ADP 11.49. ... After Youkilis on the third-base depth chart, there is a huge dropoff, so don't let him slip past you in the draft. Youkilis' BABIP dipped to its lowest level since 2004 at .296, and his AVG tanked due to hitting only .234 versus right-handed pitchers. Since he has never had a problem with righties before despite a negative pattern emerging (.318 in 2008, .304 in 2009, .275 in 2010), let's hope it was a one-year blip. Also, a return to health should yield one more season approaching 2008 and 2009 levels despite Youkilis likely being on the downside of his career at age 33.
  • Outfielders: Jason Heyward (ADP 107.03, 31st OF), Bryce Harper (ADP 210.33, 55th OF) and Alex Rios (ADP 221.02, 60th OF). Heyward's BABIP was .260 in 2011, which resulted in a .227 average. But, his .251 xBA showed he's not a .220s hitter (in 2010, his xBA was .278 and his BA was .277). Also, he has dropped 20 pounds and was doing hitting drills at Turner Field in January 2012. I'll take the chance his eye returns that yielded 51 walks to 51 strikeouts in 422 PAs in the minors in 2009, and he can reverse the drop in line drive rate from 18% in 2010 at age 20 to 13% in 2011 at age 21. ... Harper is the classic high-upside fifth outfielder, both since his value will skyrocket if he makes the team out of Spring Training, and because if that happens -- like Yu Darvish discussed here -- you can take advantage of the owner in your league that makes trades based on name recognition over stats by selling very high early in the season. ... Rios' alternating years of good and bad seasons says this should be a good one. He is being drafted so low (Eric Thames and Nyjer Morgan are the OFs directly above him in ADP rank) that he is worth the chance to see if he can reverse a .237 BABIP (2009 was the only other year in his career his BABIP was below .300) and provide upside HR/SB numbers as your fifth or sixth outfielder. Remember: he had 21 HRs, 88 RBIs, 34 SBs and a .284 AVG as recently as 2010.

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