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The Proof Is In The Peripherals: July 18-24

Let's look into the advanced metrics to see who you should or shouldn't have on your fantasy roster in the second half of the season...

* ProTextion.  Still available in 33% of Yahoo fantasy leagues, Mark Teixeira is a terrific pickup if you're looking for some power down the stretch.  My wrist started to ache while typing that last sentence since merely writing about Teixeira will cause wrist injuries by osmosis. Yet, while the veteran is still prone to missing a game or two with one injury setback or another, when Teixeira is on the field, he's still very productive.

Teixeira has a .241/.341/.464 line, 17 homers, 48 RBI and 39 runs scored through 305 PA this season.  In comparison to the average Mark Teixeira season of recent years (he slashed .252/.347/.484 from 2010-12), that's not a big dropoff, and the 2014 campaign even shares some vintage Teixeira traits like a low BABIP (.242) and a lotta pop (.222 ISO, 18th-highest in baseball).  He's both seeing and swinging at fewer pitches within the strike zone as compared to his career averages, though none of his other metrics are drastically out of whack with what we've come to expect from Teixeira.  Teixpect?

Presumably you've had a good first baseman on your roster for much of the year and aren't looking at Teixeira to take on a starting position...or hey, maybe you are if you're a Joey Votto owner or something.  Given Teixeira's health issues, I'd also be hesitant to hand him an everyday job; in fact, I platoon Teixeira with TPIITP favorite Lucas Duda in one of my leagues.  For bench depth or a utility role, Teixeira is a terrific option, particularly if he's playing at Yankee Stadium (his home OPS is .074 higher than his road OPS).  I'm knocking on wood as I'm saying this, but if Teixeira stays healthy, there's no reason why he can't be the same power threat he's been for over a decade.

* X Marks The Bench.  On the morning of June 8, Xander Bogaerts owners could wake up feeling pretty good about their move to draft the young shortstop/third baseman.  After a 2-for-5 performance against Detroit the previous night, Bogaerts was hitting a cool .299/.387/.452 and looking all the world like the young star the Red Sox (and fantasy managers) were hoping to get in his first full season in the bigs.

Since then, however, it's been a different story.  I'm going to issue a parental advisory for this next set of statistics since parents shouldn't be exposing young children to numbers like this.  Between June 8 and July 13, a period of 114 plate appearances, Bogaerts has been hitting .103/.140/.131 with one homer and five RBI.  I mean...wow.  I'm not saying I'd do better than that over a similar timespan (I'd swing and miss every time and start crying about 60 PA in) but the very fact that I'm even borderline speculating that my overweight carcass could outperform a Major League ballplayer indicates just how poorly Bogaerts has been playing.

This is one of those slumps that forces a fantasy manager to reconsider having a guy on his roster, no matter who it is.  Sure, this slump is some ways a case of course-correction (Bogaerts enjoyed a .384 BABIP prior to June 8, and a .132 BABIP after, averaging out to a .302 BABIP for his full season) or simply an extreme case of a young player adjusting to the league after they've had a chance to get some video on him.  That said, man alive, having a player throw up a .271 OPS on your roster for over a full month is a recipe for fantasy disaster.

Should you cut Xander Bogaerts?  It's a close call for me, but I'm leaning towards no.  On the one hand, while he's a heralded prospect, we have no evidence that he'll be able to cut it in the Show so there's no evidence that he'll necessarily be able to come out of his slide.  On the other hand, Bogaerts does have dual-position eligibility so he can help your roster as a utility bench guy if nothing else.  He's also (somewhat surprisingly) played the third-most games and received the third-most PA of anyone on the 2014 Red Sox, so fatigue could be a factor as well.  This four-day All-Star break could be just what Bogaerts needs to recharge the batteries.

If you're in a no-bench league, you'll have to cut him simply because you can't afford to waste any more at-bats.  If you're in a league with a bench, for the love of Zod, get Bogaerts out of your starting lineup ASAP but hang onto him for at least a few more weeks to see if he can shake off the cobwebs.  If that doesn't work, the Sox should consider hiring former Tigers first baseman Dave Bergman as a hitting coach -- everyone knows Bogey and Bergman have great chemistry.  #NailedIt  #MarkHasAFilmDegree

* What Will Phil Do Next?  Felix Hernandez is a very solid guess as the starting pitcher with the most fWAR in baseball this season.  Jon Lester is a bit more surprising as the next name on the fWAR list, though the Boston southpaw is having a monster year.  As for who's third on the list, surely your mind will lean towards Adam Wainwright, Yu Darvish, Clayton Kershaw or any of the game's star-studded aces, yet the actual answer is.....Phil Hughes.  Yep, that Phil Hughes.  Only King Felix and, uh, Prince Jon have topped the 3.7 fWAR Hughes has generated over his 121 2/3 innings of work for the Twins this season.

The fantasy buzz around Hughes going into the season was that the extreme fly ball pitcher would perform much better at spacious Target Field than he did at Yankee Stadium, and sure enough, he's rebounded very nicely from his dreadful 2013 season.  Hughes has a 3.92 ERA through 19 starts, a 10-5 record, a 7.99 K/9 and (dig this) a 9.82 K/BB rate.  That K/BB number is so gorgeous that it may be the direct opposite of the Bogaerts slump slash line; parents, your kids can start reading the column again!  Hughes only has an 0.8 BB/9, easily the best of his career and the best of anyone in the bigs this year except for Hisashi Iwakuma, who's also the only one topping Hughes in the K/BB category.

Is it simply the change of scenery at work here?  It could be giving Hughes a mental boost to escape the short right field porch in the Bronx, yet interestingly, Hughes actually has a 5.37 ERA in nine home starts this year, as opposed to a 2.78 ERA in 10 road outings.  It's not Target Field helping him, it's just that Hughes' greatly improved control is helping limit his damage.  Hughes' 57% swing rate is way above his 49.3% career average, yet his contact rates are only a bit above career norms -- batters may be swinging more, but they're not necessarily doing much with those swings.

Of course, those swings are doing some damage.  Hughes' 3.92 ERA is inflated by a .341 BABIP, as the righty is posting a 2.62 FIP, 3.22 xFIP and 3.25 SIERA.  He's been particularly unlucky over his last six starts -- a 2.20 FIP over that stretch but also a .402 BABIP and a 5.49 ERA.  The good news for you is that this recent cold spell might've been the reason why Hughes is owned in only 55% of Yahoo leagues, so you can snap him up and reap the benefits once his luck starts to turn.

* The Captain.  I forget if they mentioned it during Tuesday's All-Star Game broadcast, but 2014 happens to be Derek Jeter's last season.  You may be feeling sentimental about this and you're considering putting one of the game's greats on your fantasy roster for the very last time.  And lookit that, he's even available on your league's waiver wire!  What's the harm in adding Jeter once more for old times' sake?

Plenty.  Unless your league counts "Leadership" along with the 5x5 stats, Jeter's .272/.324/.322 slash line, two homers, 25 RBI, 31 runs and six steals over 371 PA doesn't translate to much fantasy value.  The near-total lack of power is the real eye-opener, as Jeter's .050 ISO is the lowest of any qualified player in baseball.  While shortstop is a thin position (only nine have a wRC+ over the average 100 mark), Jeter's 80 wRC+ still ranks him behind 17 other shortstops.  Even Bogaerts, after over a month of that ghastly cold spell, still has an 82 wRC+ to top Jeter.

One plus in Jeter's favor is that he's managed to stay healthy this year, so provided his leg issues are behind him, he'd be least be a reliable place-holder for you if your regular shortstop was lost to the DL.   (It's not like the Yankees will bench him too often during his final season.)  It's unfortunate that a longtime fantasy star like Jeter is now merely a waiver wire fill-in during his last year, but that's the way it goes.  I somewhat doubt that the rest of the league's hurlers will follow Wainwright's lead in grooving pitches for Jeter to hit, so while Jeter may have two-plus months left in his actual career, his fantasy career is already at an end.




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