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The Proof Is In The Peripherals: May 9-15

This week's trio of players includes one guy who is already good and could be even better, one guy who's due for some regression and one player who I'm a little unsure about.  Let's see what the peripherals have to say about our three selections...

* (Don't) Swing The Bat, Carlos.  Perhaps we were all just a little too ready to believe that Carlos Beltran would a) be a hitting machine forever, and b) he'd clean up hitting at Yankee Stadium.  Furthermore, Beltran's strong 2013 season included a troubling career-low 6.3% walk rate that was papered over by a .314 BABIP and a big spike in line drive rate.  This season, Beltran is matching that walk rate but the hits aren't getting through the cracks (.250 BABIP) and he has only managed a 14.4% line drive rate, leading to a .241/.291/.448 slash line and five homers in 127 PA.  Beltran's contact rates are, if anything, up from last season and over the years he's become more of a bad-ball hitter, as he's been both swinging at and hitting pitches outside the strike zone.  Still, a little more patience would be nice to see that OBP over .300, at the very least. 

I'm not capital-w Worried about Beltran quite yet because of that below-average BABIP, but if you can swing a nice trade for him right now, I wouldn't advise against it.  Beltran *did* just turn 37 a couple of weeks ago and since it's rare enough for players to be still be reliable bats at that age, you can't be too surprised by a sudden dropoff in production.  To set the peripherals aside and use an old-school argument, it could also be that Beltran is having a bit of an adjustment period in returning to AL pitchers after spending almost a decade in the National League.  Whatever the reason, keep an eye on Beltran over the next couple of weeks to see if he's just in a slump or if this could be cause to jettison him off your fantasy roster.

* Down The Pipes With Koehler.  There is a lot of upside to having a Marlins starting pitcher on your fantasy roster, especially if it's Jose Fernandez or Nathan Eovaldi.  Heck, even Henderson Alvarez has been a quiet gem despite the fact that he doesn't strike anyone out.  While Alvarez might be a K-rate anomaly, however, I feel safe in predicting that another low-strikeout Miami hurler is due for a regression quite soon.

Tom Koehler (who really should be nicknamed 'The Plumber') was a rather unheralded 18th-round draft pick in 2008 who has risen like a backed-up sink to become a (not a plumbing) fixture in Miami's rotation over the last two seasons.  He currently owns a stunning 1.99 ERA through seven starts and is currently riding a streak of 15 2/3 scoreless innings.

Unfortunately for Koehler, his 5.76% strikeout rate is lower than the water pressure in my old shower.  As you might expect for a guy with only 134 strikeouts through 201 1/3 career innings, Koehler is a groundball pitcher (50% grounder rate this season) but his bigger weapon in 2014 has been luck.  An 86.8% strand rate and .195 BABIP have kept his ERA lower than the water pres...oh, I've used that one?  Am I finally out of lame plumbing jokes?  Anyway, Koehler's unimpressive peripherals are the reason for his 4.01 FIP, 4.35 xFIP and 4.46 SIERA.

The right-hander's recent hot streak undoubtedly earned him a few adds to fantasy rotations, yet don't get carried by a couple of good starts.  If Koehler is hit hard by the Dodgers on Monday, that's probably the only sign you need that his luck has run out.  Even before Monday, if you find another good option on the waiver wire, you can go ahead and (okay, one more) flush Koehler from your rotation. 

* Run, Don't Walk(er).  Geez, I'm really laboring with the "don't" puns for this week's headers.  You know who isn't laboring?  Neil Walker owners, that's who!  (nailed THAT segue)  For four years now, Walker has been an under-the-radar kind of player who will still be around near the end of your draft (a 275.5 average draft position according to Mock Draft Central) yet will provide above-average production at the usually-thin 2B spot.  Walker gave the Pirates a .274/.340/.426 line from 2010-13 and this year it's basically been more of the same, as Walker has a  .254/.345/.431 with six homers, 18 RBI and 18 runs.  His 121 wRC+ ranks him sixth amongst Major League second basemen.

Perhaps the most intriguing part of the 2014 Walker experience is that we might not have yet seen his best.  Walker has cut back on his strikeouts, with only a 10.7% K-rate as compared to the 17.4% mark he posted from 2010-13.  Furthermore, Walker only has a .250 BABIP --- this could be a bit of normalization after he'd posted a .313 BABIP over the previous four seasons, but then again, it's also possible that his batted-ball luck will get closer to his career norms.  The BABIP might be the only way in which the Pirates' overall offensive deep freeze has really gotten to Walker, but he's otherwise a thoroughly solid fantasy player.  He's the kind of underrated guy you can get from a less-enlightened rival manager who might be more attracted by a bigger name or a top prospect off to a hot start.




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