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Stock Watch: New Stats and Other Shiny Objects

It's always nice to get new things, so I was pretty excited to see that Fangraphs.com added a new stat yesterday: K-BB%. Who would I be not to take a look and see who looks like they need to be targeted in trade—or be sent packing—based on a stat? Okay, so it's not like it's new knowledge--it's just more convenient, but that's plenty for me. 

We’ll have to cover hitters next week, because overcoming my biases of interest in favor of new stuff and pitching at the same time is impossible. Impossible.

Trade For 

Who looks good based on K-BB%? Well, you probably aren’t going to pry Masahiro Tanaka (26.3%) or David Price (24.6%) from their owners without paying a fortune, and you definitely don’t want to trade for the stat’s leader, Jose Fernandez (27.8%) in a redraft league, but that doesn’t mean you can’t like the selection of pitchers below: 

Ian Kennedy (21.2%) is looking like his old, healthy, awesome self. No, I still wouldn’t give up Cole Hamels for him, as has been asked in the comments, but I’d definitely target Kennedy in a trade. 

Corey Kluber (21.1%) will be pitching himself out of the bargain space soon, but it wasn’t too late for me to encourage my wife to target him in trade a couple days ago. I’ll encourage you to do the same, probably for the last time. Hopefully I’ll be able to hype him up enough that he makes it into the “Trade Away” section below….

Alex Wood (19.9%) is pitching well enough that you should go after him if you can handle the wasted roster slot, especially in a keeper format. Him, I believe in…teammate Aaron Harang (18.9%), not so much. When Harang’s regression comes, Wood ought to be ready. And if Harang doesn’t regress…well, weird stuff is what makes baseball great, right?

Yordano Ventura (18.5%) isn’t getting as much hype as you’d expect, but he’s proving his supporters right with a strong K-BB%. 

“What’s he do?” candidate Jesse Chavez (18.2%) continues to be excellent and I’m starting to think he’s worth prying away from owners that are as surprised as everyone else at his performance.

Trade Away 

On the other side of the K-BB% things look a little less awesome. 

It’s time to deal Shelby Miller (5%), preferably to an owner that doesn’t understand that having a 5.34 FIP means your 2.79 ERA is probably going way, way up.

Jake Peavy (6.8%) may (or may not) have some trade value left from name recognition alone. Let him go and remember his Padre days fondly. 

R.A. Dickey (7.6%) probably isn’t giving anyone much hope, but this is more reason not to have it. 

A.J. Burnett (8.1%) was a big favorite of mine before the year began, but this number really spells trouble. Nothing like a new(ly sortable) stat to snap me out of denial. It’s backed up in the difference between his ERA (3.13) and his FIP (4.32). Keep in mind also, that Philadelphia (presumably, I haven’t been hanging out there recently) hasn’t heated up for the summer to turn the park into a homer-launching pad. 

Justin Verlander (9%) makes it onto this list thanks to a strikeout rate that has pretty much shriveled up and died. His ERA and FIP are almost perfectly matched (3.15 and 3.14), but his xFIP smells trouble (4.31)…but can advanced statistics really smell?

Pick Up

Shallow Leagues (30-50% Owned)

Adam LaRoche (49%) is about to come off the DL. He was raking before the injury, so he’s worth a chance even in those shallowest of leagues in which he’s available.

Dallas Keuchel (48%) had two articles written on him yesterday, on Yahoo! and on Fangraphs. When two great oracles agree, it’s time to quit hating on the Astros and take a chance on a guy. Of course, almost half of you already have….

Eric Young (38%) is an all-worlder in steals, and the Mets don’t seem to care much about his horrible average. He should be more widely owned, even if just as a bench piece to protect you from his average and still sneak in some steals.

Trevor Bauer (36%) is up in place of Danny Salazar. More upside than most with that ownership level, though his previous MLB experience reminds us of his downside.

Final warning for Jon Niese (34%): he’s awesome. But I talk about him too much, so now it’s up to you not to forget about him.

Adam Lind (31%) has more pop than most in this ownership level. I’m inclined to think he deserves rostering in about half of fantasy leagues. 

Medium Leagues (20-30% Owned)

James Loney (27%) should be more owned: seriously, .300 averages don’t grow on trees, even without power.

I don’t normally talk about relievers here, but Joaquin Benoit (25%) is really awesome (2.18 ERA, 0.82 WHIP).

Bartolo Colon (23%) hasn’t been nearly as bad as his bloated ERA leads one to believe.

Gerardo Parra and Dayan Viciedo (both 22%) have been passable if you’re in need, but OF continues to be pretty tough on those in medium and deep leagues.

Who before the season would have expected that Tyler Skaggs (21%) would hurt you in strikeouts (just 33 in 51.2 IP) but help in WHIP (1.16)? No one. So go for it if you need the WHIP really bad.

Drew Hutchison (20%) has a nifty WHIP and is striking out a batter per inning.

Deep Leagues (Under 20% Owned)

Another reliever for you: Dellin Betances (16%) has 42 strikeouts in 24.1 IP, so that’s pretty awesome.

Daniel Murphy (14%) is offering steady production and playing often enough to be useful.

Matt Dominguez (12%) has a little power and an average that isn’t as bad as you’d expect. Considering how many third baseman have sustained injuries this year, he ought to be a bit more widely owend.

Rafael Montero (11%) wasn’t bad in his first start, and his prospect-ness means that he’s got more upside than most. And at this depth “wasn’t bad” is pretty much the same as great.

Jake Odorizzi (9%) has control issues and his rate stats warn against trusting him…but he’s whiffing more than a batter per inning, so those searching desperately for K’s may have a use for him as long as the Rays do.

Corey Dickerson (8%) is raking. Anyone hitting that good should be on more teams, even if it’s destined not to last. You don't have to believe in him to ride a hot streak.

Brandon McCarthy (7%) showed up pretty high on the K-BB% list and is pitching better than his ERA would indicate. Of course, it would be helpful if Arizona would win some ballgames….

Lorenzo Cain (5%) is batting .295 in the last month and might be heating up a little. Hey, an empty batting average is better than nothing, right? 

Edwin Jackson (4%) has been pretty hot lately, and has more track record of relative success than most players on the waiver wires of deep leagues.

Barely on the Radar

These aren’t guys to pick up yet…just to keep in mind. Dylan Bundy is rehabbing and could be pitching (in the minors) soon. Stephen Drew is back with the Sox and should be with the team on Wednesday. Unless you’re desperate for help at short, I’d wait to see what his playing time shakes out to be before dropping someone useful to get him. Jason Motte has been activated, so pencil him in as once-and-future-closer-in-waiting, though Trevor Rosenthal will have to stumble big time for Motte to get his old job back..




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