« RotoAuthority Unscripted: Back in Black | Main | Closer Updates: A’s, Angels, Astros, Cubbies, Jays, Mets, Reds, Red Sox »

Stock Watch: April Fails

Last week we made some trade suggestions for some of April's best players, with the promise that we'd be back for suggestions about some of April's worst. Enjoy.* Also included free of charge are some waiver wire suggestions that the last article was so sadly missing.

*Please enjoy these suggestions responsibly. Just because Jedd Gyorko is a "Trade For" this week and Justin Upton was a "Trade Away" last week does not mean I recommend a straight-up swap....

Trade For

I'd offer a trade for Jedd Gyorko. Why? Because guys who play second and third and have a 20-homer season under their belt don't grow on trees. Also, because he's been so thoroughly awful that he can't possibly cost much. If he does, don't pull the trigger.

Prince Fielder hasn't shown any power at all, and that does worry me a little, but his history has earned him plenty of benefit of the doubt. What's more, he's also got a giant walk rate and a tiny BABIP, which tells me that he should turn things around in the contact and on-base departments. Could be a bargain if his owner is frustrated.

Billy Butler isn't returning to his 2012 power ways, but he's typically managed much better BABIP's than his current .282 mark, and I'd expect his average to climb eventually.

Mike Moustakas is on the rise, I tell you! Maybe not, but it does seem like the worst of the season might have ended with the first couple weeks.

Elvis Andrus has nine steals and a .250 BABIP. That average will come up and he'll be a speed-star again.

Brian McCann has a .225 BABIP dragging down his .229 average. You have to think both numbers will go up as the weather heats up and his sample size increases.

David Wright doesn't have any positive indicators at this point: a .330 BABIP and a 5.6% walk rate are very bad under-the-hood stats. But this is David Wright we're talking about, and players of his caliber shouldn't be tossed aside after a month of bad play--even if that month is backed up by the peripherals. Bet on him to go back to normal.

Adam Jones has actually been worse than Wright, but like him, has earned our trust with years of good play. If you can pry either from a frustrated owner, go for it.

Ian Desmond is a shortstop with power. The strikeouts are bad, the average is bad, I know. But seriously, he's a shortstop with power. How many of those are there?

Danny Salazar was one of the most-hyped players on draft day, and now where is he? Rocking a 5.93 ERA. So trade for him, because he's got a 10.98 K/9, a .395 BABIP, and a 3.55 xFIP. He ought to straighten things out.

Homer Bailey deserves a trade offer...unless you play in Mark's fantasy league. And check out his in-depth analysis if you didn't see it already.

Phil Hughes has a 1.93 BB/9 and an 8.36 K/9, to go with a .353 BABIP. No wonder his FIP of 3.41 and xFIP of 3.72 are beating his current ERA.

CC Sabathia has a 5.11 ERA...and a 2.79 xFIP. 2.79! With a strikeout rate over 9.00 and a walk rate under 2.00, no wonder. I suspect it won't be long before people are talking about CC's resurgence, so get some trade offers in while you still can.

David Price looked like a dangerous guy to own coming into the year, but his 10.17 K/9 and 0.92 BB/9 suggest that this should have been one of the best months of his career--and not one that ended with a 4.44 ERA. His FIP is 3.37 and xFIP is 2.58. A trade target for anyone who needs pitching.

John Lackey came back from the dead last year and, while his 3.83 ERA isn't horrible, his peripherals suggest he could be doing even better: 3.40 FIP and 3.19 xFIP. Feel safe making trade offers for him.

Sell Low If You Still Can

Brandon Phillips may not be sellable at this point, but it's worth a shot. Cincinnati was shopping him for a reason, and it wasn't just his personality.

Curtis Granderson really doesn't have much going for him at this point. Presumably, he'll improve on that .200 BABIP, but will it be enough? I doubt it.

Pablo Sandoval seems to think that his production is worth $100 million. Hopefully he's playing in your fantasy league, because I'd be willing to sell for somewhat less. Sandoval's really not getting much done.

Jean Segura has a walk rate of just 1.9%. You don't get to be a useful leadoff man with that kind of number. Deal him while his name still has value.

Domonic Brown wasn't someone it was easy feel sure about endorsing or writing off before the season, so most of us writers hedged our bets and took a middle position. He might well bounce back, but I wouldn't use a roster spot on waiting, because he might not.

B.J. Upton has stolen a few bases, which is cool, but hitting-wise, he looks done. It's not good when a .294 BABIP leads to just a .214 average.                                                                                

Nick Swisher has always been one of my guys: underrated and dependable, but it looks like our time together might be through. Like Upton, his .214 average isn't coming from a BABIP that smacks of terrible and soon-to-reverse luck--it's a pretty normal .278. Sorry Swish....

Ubaldo Jimenez is someone you probably already dropped, but if you haven't, I'd probably try squeezing him into a trade offer if the other owner needs strikeouts. It's been pretty ugly, and none of the signs point to a coming improvement.

R.A. Dickey seems like he's lost that knuckleball magic, which is really a shame, 'cause it was cool. I'd try passing him along to someone who needs to take a big risk.

Matt Cain was supposed to have remembered how to keep the ball in the park...but his HR/FB rate has only gotten worse this month. I was very bullish on him going into the season, and I'm not truly ready to give up--but I would deal him away for a decent offer, and each homer allowed makes me more pessimistic.

Hiroki Kuroda was once the model of consistent good-but-not-greatness, the guy you could always count on. His ERA will come down, but the lowered strikeout rates don't cut it anymore in most leagues.

Shallow Leagues

Dillon Gee (36%), Jose Quintana (34%), and Bartolo Colon (33%) haven't set the world on fire, but all ought to be useful going forward. Quintana offers more strikeouts, but the Mets on either side of him ought to benefit more in ERA from their home park.

Why not own Adam Dunn (41%)? We all owned Mark Trumbo when he was doing exactly the same thing before getting hurt. Except with a much worse average. Pick Dunn up and hang on to him until his average craters. If it doesn't, you'll get a ton of value. If it does, just enjoy the homers while you can.

Jonathan Villar (41%) has six steals and bad-but-not-vortex-of-suck batting average. That's all we were asking for before the season, and it ought to be valuable enough at short and MI.

Marcell Ozuna (35%) is hitting pretty well and ought to move up the ownership charts. He might be the most likely of this group to keep the production up all year.

Alcides Escobar (33%), like Villar, isn't hitting that bad, and has a respectable number of steals. There's no excuse not to pick one of them up if you need stolen bases.

Medium Leagues

Drew Smyly (29%) hasn't really gotten a chance to prove himself or fail in the starter experiment, but as we move into May, there should be fewer opportunities to skip his spot in the rotation. Let's see what he's got.

Tyler Skaggs (27%) may or may not keep this up all year, but there's no reason not to try enjoying it while you can.

Josh Beckett (25%) had another good start, from a K:BB perspective--8:1 last time out. It's time to let bygones be bygones and roster him.

Colby Rasmus (24%) has a bunch of homers to go with his sub-Mendoza average. I imagine some BABIP luck correction will push the average up into the almost-playable range--which will work well enough if he keeps hitting with this much power.

Deep Leagues

Drew Hutchison (18%) is off to a nifty start, despite being totally unheralded coming into the year.

Colby Lewis (3%) has nearly a strikeout per inning. He's got a lot more upside than a lot of pitchers more widely owned than him.

Mark Reynolds (12%) is a cheap power source, but you won't like what he does to your average. If I'm gonna recommend Dunn and Rasmus, though, I'd better do the same for Reynolds, especially in leagues that can play him at third.

Garrett Jones (11%) has been kind of an all-around producer so far. It probably won't last, but we take what we can get in deep leagues.

Welington Castillo (5%) is smacking the ball with some authority. And he's a catcher. Always a pleasant combination.


Full Story |  Comments (0) | Categories: Stock Watch | Trading

Search Roto Authority

Custom Search




Roto Authority Mailing List

Enter your email address:

Delivered by FeedBurner


Roto Authority Features



Recent Posts



Monthly Archives









Site Map     Contact     About     Advertise     Privacy Policy     MLB Trade Rumors     Rss Feed