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Stock Watch: Opening Week Lottery Tickets

Ever unsure whether to pick someone up off the waiver wire or just stand pat? Spend your time wondering if your slumping third OF will rebound…or if you should trade him while you still can? Trying to figure out whether to sell high on a surprise player…or buy high on him in another league?

That’s why we have Stock Watch, and it’s back for another year of player value analysis. Each week, we’ll take a look at players who should be available on waiver wires around the fantasy world, plus we’ll look into which players you should try to target in trades and which ones you should try getting onto someone else’s roster as soon as possible.

This week being just barely underway, we’ll take a look at some widely available players with the potential to make an impact and we won’t worry about suggesting trades; for the next couple weeks, my suggestion is: don’t. Enjoy the team you drafted, and if someone else comes to you with a deal that works, that’s great. If not, give your players time to, you know, actually play. So we’ll add that feature in coming weeks.

Closers Have it Worst

Opening Week is rough on closers. Especially Brewers closers. (How the tables have turned, Jim Henderson!) I’ll let Luckey Helms tackle these guys in his column and over at @CloserNews, but I’ll quickly say this: add Jose Valverde, Matt Lindstrom, and Francisco Rodriguez while you still can! Actually, you probably can’t, because you already did on the advice of @CloserNews. If you didn’t, someone in your league did.

Swimming in the Shallow End (40%-50% owned in Y!)

If your league is pretty shallow (like a standard Yahoo! public or pro league, or a 10-team format), some of these guys might be available. If not…well, they probably aren’t. Ownership rates are for Yahoo! leagues unless otherwise specified.

Justin Morneau (49%) and Chris Carter (49%) both offer flawed power for your Util slot or your bench. I love these guys in daily leagues: Morneau ought to put up good numbers during his home games and Carter can be plugged in any time and have a better chance of throwing you a bench homer than anyone else. Adam Lind (42%) and Colby Rasmus (42%) could also provide some bench power. It’s worth remembering that players with power are very hard to find on the wire later in the season, as these guys tend to get scooped up as injury and failed-gamble replacements.

Grady Sizemore (49%) is killing it already (in one game…). Could he be this year’s comeback star? Why not—the one thing we know for sure is that his ceiling was once sky-high. No reason not to buy, since you can always pick up a replacement 4th OF later on.

Miguel Montero (46%) has already put one out of the park (though he’s had a few more at bats than most players, since he got to play in the Australia games). I’m guessing he’s only available in one-catcher leagues, but if you were betting on Wilson Ramos, Montero might make a good replacement.

Dillon Gee (47%) gave an encouraging (but not awesome) start already, and he’s a decent guy to add. John Lackey 45%) deserves a shot in more leagues than this, having pitched well last season and playing for a Red Sox club likely to bring him some wins.

Medium-Depth Leagues (20%-40% owned in Y!)

If you’re looking for speed or MI help, there are two guys you should target: Dee Gordon (38%) and Emilio Bonifacio (31%). Neither looked all that likely to get a lot of playing time for most of the spring…but both may be starting on a regular basis, and both can fly.

Eric Young (27%) can help in speed but not play MI, while Kolten Wong (32%) can play MI but doesn’t offer as much speed. (But maybe he can hit.)

If you’re looking for a flexible backup, Dustin Ackley (23%) has a good game under his belt (maybe that sample size is too low) and plays in the infield and outfield. His teammate Corey Hart (365) and Adam LaRoche (24%) offer upside for owners in need of some 1B power.

There are a lot of interesting guys with some potential here. None of them have pitched yet, but keep an eye on Drew Smyly (35%), Rick Porcello (38%), Dan Straily (38%), Tim Hudson (35%), and Jose Quintana (35%).

Tanner Scheppers (25%) got beaten badly, but I’ll give him a mulligan on an Opening Day that also featured Cliff Lee getting rocked. This experiment may be short-lived, but it isn’t over.

Wade Miley (22%) whiffed eight Giants, so he’s showing something good.

Deep League Opportunities (under 20% owned)

Justin Smoak (12%) had a great Opening Day, and deep league owners have to pounce on things like that. Miami’s Marcell Ozuna (7%) made a nice splash in his first game of the season. It’s young (or young-ish) players like these that often make the best early waiver wire picks in deep leagues.

Cody Asche (6%) was part of the Texas-Philly offense explosion in which I had both starting pitchers…anyway, I’d take his Opening Day with a grain of salt--and yet consider picking him up. We’re making wild stabs in the dark here. If they work out, the results could be great. If not, it’s not like you’re dropping established players to snag these lottery tickets.

James Loney (15%) and Yonder Alonso (11%) may be oh-for-the-season, but still project to put up palatable averages. If your team need someone to “do no harm” they might be good targets.

Staff injuries mean that James Paxton (16%) and Martin Perez (15%) should have nice long leashes—which is exactly what fantasy managers want out of young pitchers. Keep them in mind. Tyler Skaggs (10%) threw hard in Spring Training, which is probably good. The Angels may have to depend on him too. The Twins will be depending on Phil Hughes (11%), so snatch him up at the first signs of success.

Brandon Morrow (7%) appears not to be hurt yet, so remember his old strikeout days when you go to the waiver wire. Jenrry Mejia (5%) looked good at the end of last year and is worth thinking about in these deep leagues.

If you remember nothing else about the season’s first weeks, remember this: now is the time for high-impact pickups. Yes, the sample sizes are small, but that doesn’t mean you can’t win big on an early lottery ticket.



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