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RotoAuthority League Update: Projected Final Standings

The RotoAuthority League is a highly competitive 12-team fantasy baseball league run by Tim Dierkes. The settings consist of standard 5 X 5 Rotisserie scoring and 23-man lineups along with 3 bench spots. In an effort to keep owners interested as well as to infuse new blood into the league, the teams that finish below 8th place are kicked out of the league each year. The author of this column just hopes he’s not one of them.

With the All-Star break now behind us, I thought it might be a good time to see what the final standings could look like for the RotoAuthority League. I've taken the actual league standings through Friday's games and then added on rest-of-season projections from a mainstream projection system. In this way, we can get a feel for how the standings may shift over the balance of the season.

Before we get to those projected standings, though, a few quick caveats apply here. First, given that there's a 1500-innings limit in this league, I pro-rated the pitching projections for any teams who were expected to go beyond the innings cap. Next, the RotoAuthority League allows for three bench slots, but these projections only take into account each team's best starting lineup. Finally, the rest-of-season projections are just based on current rosters, but there will certainly be plenty of player movement before the trade deadline on August 18 in the very active RotoAuthority League. (Heck, I've made four trades in the past ten days myself. More on that next week.)

With that out the way, let's see what the final standings look like based on roughly 60% statistics accrued and about 40% rest-of-season projections. Current point totals are provided in parentheses to see how each team is expected to move in the standings down the stretch.

1. Yu at the Animal Zoo 98 (101)

2. Smell the Glove 97 (102)

3. Say It Ain't So Cano 77.5 (81)

4. Brewsterville Bruins 72 (73.5)

5. Gramma Nutt Crushers 72  (75)

6. Men With Wood 68.5 (62)

7. Philly Cheez 59 (48.5)

8. Reedy 56 (55)

9. UP 51 (55.5)

10. E-Z Sliders 49 (53.5)

11. A Century of Misery 43 (40.5)

12. Forty 2 Twenty 4 37 (32.5)

The first takeaway for me is that if things go according to the projections, it's going to be an exciting finish in the RotoAuthority League. Despite currently standing in second place, Yu at the Animal Zoo is projected to take home the title by one point over Tim Dierkes's Smell the Glove. It's also interesting that these two squads are expected to finish 20 points ahead of the rest of the league. It's pretty safe to say this league has become a two-horse race.

The middle of the standings are expected to remain rather stable. On the one hand, this stands to reason, as rest-of-season projections are conservative in nature and thus unlikely to forecast massive jumps in the standings. On the other hand, it's worth keeping in mind that strange things can happen in this game we love over a small sample size of just two-and-a-half months. As always, projections should be taken with a grain of salt. As a quick aside, it's worth noting that the Brewsterville Bruins have been able to amass over 200 at-bats more than any other team in the league. Despite having an offense that doesn't really jump off the page, the Bruins are in the top half of both runs and RBI. This speaks to the power of reaching those games played maximums.

Something else that stands out is that Philly Cheez is projected to move up 14 points over the balance of the season. Upon closer examination, this squad is expected to make up 5 points in the RBI category and another 5 in the Wins column. Given that each of those categories is tightly packed in the middle, this seems plausible. If the projections see Philly Cheez rising out of the bottom four, there naturally must be another team expected to join that unwanted territory. As it turns out, UP would hope that the standings do not finish as seen above, as the projections anticipate this squad slipping a few points into the bottom four.

Once again, they're called projections for a reason. Over a sample size of ten weeks, just about anything can happen in this wonderful game. Still, this is a useful exercise that I recommend any fantasy owner taking the time to do if playing in a Rotisserie league. In this way, you can see specifically which categories to prioritize over the balance of the season.

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