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Buy High-deas and Sell These Low-lifes

Obviously, selling high and buying low is traditionally a good strategy for real sports (if you own a sports team), and also fantasy sports (if you pretend to own a sports team). Flipping a hot player when he’s at his peak or snatching up a slumping superstar when an owner is fed up is usually a good idea (whether you're a real-life owner or just living vicariously). But sometimes a player is finally living up the hype and coming into his own, and other players have some “name value” but are truly so worthless that you might as well flip them for whatever you can get -- as opposed to dropping them outright or holding onto them and praying they returns to previous form.

Buy These High-deas

Jean Segura

Segura has probably hit two more homers and stolen another base since I started writing this sentence. Dude is ON FIRE, and Segura owners must be wondering how long his power is going to last (7 HRs in 154 PAs). While ESPN has shown that 5 of his 7 bombs has been “just enoughs,” the fact that 6 of them have been to the opposite field is promising. But here’s why I think you should buy high on Segura, especially in roto leagues - even if his power dissipates, he’s on pace to steal over 50 bags. He has the most stolen bases in the majors... and he didn’t steal his first base until his 11th game! He could easily swipe 70 bags this year if he stays healthy, and batting in front of some combination of Braun/Gomez/Ramirez will always mean lots of runs.

Manny Machado

I wish there was fantasy baseball for defense, because Machado looks like the best defensive third baseman in the league. But with a .329/.367/.515 batting line and 5 bombs and 5 stolen bases, Machado looks like the superstar he was hyped up to be in the minors. Overshadowed by the Harper/Trout phenomenon of last year, Machado has looked comfortable at the plate ever since he was promoted, and rarely looks off-balance or swings at a bad pitch. While is average will most likely be sub-.300 by the end of the season, the power/steal combo along with close to 100 runs/RBIs make Machado well worth buying high on now, especially in keeper leagues. If you have Hanley Ramirez, offer him up for Machado as soon as he returns. If you have Mark Reynolds, offer him up for Machado right now. I’d even consider flipping a Wright/Panda/Beltre-type for Machado plus another piece. The kid is that good.

Carlos Gomez

In one of my leagues, the guy who drafted “The Other Car-Go” was mocked mercilessly when he scooped him up in the 5th round. Well, ever since draft day, he’s been sending out weekly smack-talk updates about how well Gomez is performing, and I can’t blame him. After years of underperforming, Gomez has surprised everyone in the universe by picking up right where he left off last year, tallying 6 HRs and 8 SBs in only 36 games, all while batting a ridiculous .368/.408/.632. Of course his BABIP of .439 is unsustainable, but like Segura, Gomez isn’t going to lose his speed, and is on pace for 33 SBs.  Combine that with even 15 HRs on the year and you’ve got yourself a 2nd or 3rd round fantasy stud. And chances are he’ll have at least 20 HRs and more than 33 SBs (last year he swiped 37 in only 137 games), which would put him at elite status. I know it's hard to stomach after so many sub-par years, but I’m buying high on Gomez.

Sell These Low-lifes

Adam Dunn

Dunn looks old and slow. Yes, he has 7 HRs, which isn’t terrible, but he’s batting .137 and is on pace to drive in less than 60 runs! I’d wait until Dunn hits a couple of home runs, then try to flip him to an owner desperate for power for a mid-tier starter or even a prospect that could help your team down the road. Dunn is only going to help you in one category at this point, and while HRs are getting harder to come by, there are still some cheap sources of power out there as well - Pedro Alvarez, Mark Reynolds, etc.

Tim Lincecum

His last outing, Timmy went 7 strong and only gave up 2 hits to the Braves - sell, sell, sell while you can! I would flip Lincecum for just about any other decent starter at this point... perhaps offer a package deal for someone like Corbin or a slumping starter like Ian Kennedy. Lincecum has only his name to rely on at this point, and I’d cash in on that while I could.


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