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Stock Watch: Buy & Sell Analysis

Last week's Stock Watch recommended selling at peak value on C.J. Wilson based on his relatively poor K/BB ratio giving him a lofty SIERA. After giving up seven earned runs in his start this week, Wilson's SIERA sits at 4.22 with a 3.63 FIP. Wilson remains an excellent sell-high candidate based on his 2.82 ERA.

Buy

  • Ben Sheets - The Braves bypassed sleeper Kris Medlen and disappointing prospect Julio Teheran for Sheets and were rewarded with six shutout innings in his first start. Sheets' average fastball was clocked at 90.9 in his first start, which is two MPH down from his last (semi-) healthy seasons in 2007 and 2008.  Still, in a small sample size Sheets has struck out 15 batters to 2 walks in 16 2/3 innings between Double-A and the Majors, and since he's pitching in the National League, he should be claimed off waivers in leagues where he is unclaimed.
  • Michael Fiers - Fantasy owners are beginning to take note of Fiers' dominant ways this season, as his ownership percentage in Yahoo! leagues has creeped up to 48%.  Fiers' 2.01 ERA is legitimate based on his excellent 54/13 strikeout-to-walk ratio in only 53 2/3 innings pitched and sparkling 2.26 FIP.  Fiers only averages 88 MPH on his fastball, and there is a risk that hitters will adjust after seeing him another time through the league, but enjoy the ride while Fiers continues to deal.
  • Todd Frazier - With Joey Votto out of the Reds lineup, Frazier should see every day at-bats and take advantage of a favorable hitting ballpark.  Frazier has legitimate power that is shown by his .277 ISO on the season (which would rank 10th in MLB if he had enough plate appearances to qualify).
  • Justin Smoak - He may be entering a hot streak as he has home runs in two of his past four games.  Smoak has the lowest BABIP in MLB among qualifying hitters at .217, and his power potential (particularly when Seattle is on the road) is worth claiming in 12-team mixed leagues.
  • Coco Crisp - Nothing has gone right for Crisp this season, but he is coming off a 49-steal season and is only owned in 27% of Yahoo leagues.  Crisp has shown signs of life with four hits and two steals in his last two games.
  • Sergio Romo - Santiago Casilla has been a train wreck lately with five blown saves in his last seven chances.  Next in line should be the filthy Romo and his 0.66 (!) ERA.
  • Drew Storen - Back with the Nationals and threw a clean inning in his first appearance of the season yesterday.  Storen is back at a time when Tyler Clippard has shown some chinks in the armor with five earned runs in his last two innings. After the Nationals announced that Clippard would remain in the closer role, many owners cut Storen, but he should be claimed in leagues where he can be benched in the short term in the hopes that he works his way back into the ninth-inning job.
  • Steve Cishek - When Cishek was bypassed for a save chance on Monday for Mike Dunn, many owners figured that a closer committee was in place.  However, Cishek was dealing with a bout of the flu and all indications are that he should get the Marlins save chances going forward.  Recent trade rumors involving Heath Bell may further signal that the organization has soured on Bell and is ready to let Cishek run with the job.

Sell

  • Ryan Dempster - Dempster is a hot commodity on the MLB trading block and may be wearing a new uniform as soon as this weekend.  Hopefully you can get a nice haul for Dempster like the Cubs are trying to do by selling high.  Dempster's strikeouts per nine innings this season sits at 7.34, which is his lowest strikeout rate since 2003.  In addition, Dempster is benefitting from the highest left on base percentage among qualifying starters in MLB at 85.5% (his career rate is 72.2%).  Dempster's SIERA of 3.82 is about what you should expect going forward this season.


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