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Stock Watch: Buy & Sell Analysis

Last week's Stock Watch highlighted Paul Goldschmidt and Rajai Davis as buys that were available on many waiver wires.  Both players are now hot properties in fantasy baseball as they continued their excellent production over the past seven days.  

Buy

  • Ian Kennedy - After a 21-win season, Kennedy's stock was over-hyped in the pre-season.  However, after a slow start to the season he looks like a nice buy-low candidate.  Kennedy's ERA is high at 3.93, but his strikeouts are up from last season and his 3.46 SIERA is right in line with his mark from last year.  Kennedy has pitched excellent in his last two starts including a zero run, 12-strikeout gem his last time out.  A good idea would be to obtain Kennedy for Chris Sale or Johan Santana if given the opportunity.  Both Sale and Santana are injury risks, with Sale already having been skipped once this year with a brief banishment to the bullpen and perhaps facing an innings limit.
  • Aramis Ramirez - Slow starts are nothing new for Ramirez as April and May are by far his worst career months.  Slowed with a quad injury, now is the time to see if you can pry Ramirez away from another owner on the cheap.  Ramirez's career batting average in June is .301 (second best to .306 in August) and July has been his best month historically for home runs.
  • Trevor Cahill - Surprisingly owned in less than half of Yahoo leagues, Cahill has overall solid numbers but has increased value in daily leagues where he can be streamed for road starts where he is rocking a 2.64 ERA and 1.15 WHIP.
  • Trevor Plouffe - Available on most waiver wires, Plouffe has hit 6 home runs since the beginning of May and qualifies in Yahoo leagues at 2B, 3B, SS and OF.  Plouffe's .176 BABIP has depressed his AVG but his 15 HRs and .313 AVG in 220 plates appearances in AAA last season shows he has decent upside for a multi-position waiver wire claim.
  • Elian Herrera - 42, 31 and 33 stolen bases in the minors each of the last three seasons, Herrera is playing every day and may have taken the 3B job from Juan Uribe.  Decent source of speed off the waiver wire for teams needing stolen base help.

Sell

  • Chris Capuano - Rocking a 2.82 ERA with 8 wins, now is the time to sell high on Capuano while he rides the wave of a .228 BABIP.  Capuano's walks are up and his HR/FB% is down from last season.  Expect a high 3's or low 4's ERA the remainder of the season - ZiPS projects a 4.31 ERA rest of season.
  • Lance Lynn - Enjoying a whopping 9 wins already, Lynn is already approaching the total innings he threw in all of 2011 between the majors and minors.  Lynn has been solid all season with a SIERA in the mid-3's.  But, I am concerned about a reduction in his stuff as he blows past his innings pitched mark from last year.  The last time Lynn was a starter in the minors was 2010 when he finished the season in AAA with a 4.77 ERA in 164 innings.
  • Kyle Lohse - A 5.08 ERA in May is likely a sign of things to come for Lohse, whose career ERAs for July, August and September are 5.02, 4.67 and 4.60 respectively.  Lohse's overall 2012 numbers still look good so see if you can include him in a larger deal to upgrade elsewhere on your roster.
  • Huston Street - Back from the DL with a win in his first appearance, sell before Street has another injury and avoid the risk that he is dealt to a contender and moved to a set-up role.  I'm guessing the Padres learned their lesson last year in holding onto Heath Bell and then losing him to free agency.


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