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Stock Watch: Buy & Sell Analysis

Last week's Stock Watch recommended Trevor Plouffe as a waiver wire add, and all he has done in the six games since is hit five homers with 10 RBIs. Here's hoping these recommendations work out as well:

Buy

  • Matt Moore - Despite 54 strikeouts in 43 2/3 innings since May 1, Moore's season stats still are ugly with a 4.59 ERA and 1.46 WHIP.  However, his SIERA is down to 3.86 on the season and the best is yet to come with Moore in 2012.  A nice buy-low target from owners that are paying too much attention to his season ERA/WHIP numbers.
  • Ivan Nova - His strikeout rate per nine innings has skyrocketed this season from 5.33 to 8.00, and he has collected eight wins pitching for the Yankees' powerhouse lineup.  A 3.53 SIERA gives hope that his 4.64 ERA will come down when his 16% HR per flyball ratio evens out closer to the 8.4% he had last season.
  • Brandon Belt - Swinging a hot bat with home runs in three straight games (including in yesterday's start against a lefty).  Time to pick up Belt from the waiver wire and hope the ride continues. Aubrey Huff's injury should also provide more playing time for Belt.
  • Brandon Moss - Another hot bat, Moss has four homers in the past three games and looks to be running away with the A's first-base job.  Moss has put up good power numbers in Triple-A the past three seasons, and it may now be transferring to the Majors after bouncing around three organizations.  Moss should be claimed off waivers.
  • Ryan Raburn - Back with the Tigers and 2-for-3 in his first start. Raburn is a decent speculative add from the waiver wire for teams hurting at MI.
  • Ryan Cook - Oakland claims to be using a closer-by-committee, but Cook converted both save opportunities in the last series against the Rockies, and Brian Fuentes continued his slide by giving up two more runs in relief yesterday.
  • Tyler Clippard - I certainly missed in my projection for Henry Rodriguez, but I am again touting a non-Drew Storen Nationals closer as having the potential to run with the job.  Clippard was one of the best relief pitchers in all of baseball last season and has been nothing short of spectacular since moving into the closer role. It's going to be tough for the Nationals to remove him from the job, even after Storen returns. Not a bad idea to pick up Clippard from an owner that believes he only has a few weeks left in the closer role.
  • Casey Janssen - Sergio Santos suffered a setback in his rehab, which will extend Janssen's run as the Toronto closer. With Santos struggling earlier in the season and Toronto still near the .500 mark, we may not see Santos regain his closer spot until late in the season or next Spring.

Sell

  • Alfonso Soriano - Leading MLB in home runs since mid-May (right at the time this column suggested you pick up Soriano from waiver wires), Soriano is the streakiest of hitters that will go just as ice cold as he has been red hot.  Soriano also has been hobbling around all season with word leaking that his knees are causing him all sorts of pain. Sell Soriano's hot streak to a power-starved owner that has starting pitching or stolen bases to spare.
  • Jeremy Hellickson - Eight earned runs yesterday has pushed his ERA up to 3.45 on the season, and his 5.24 FIP indicates this number is likely to keep rising. Hellickson has managed to survive in the AL East with a K/BB well below 2, but savvy owners will be looking to trade him to an owner that overvalues Hellickson's fortunate ERA.
  • Ricky Romero - Another AL East starter whose value is inflated by his sparkling numbers last season.  Romero is walking an unsightly 4.48 batters per nine innings this season while his strikeouts per nine innings are down from last season.  That is not a good combination, and owners thinking that Romero and his 4.15 ERA are a good buy-low trade target should think again. Romero's 4.79 FIP and 4.36 SIERA indicate that he is fortunate to have his ERA that low.


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