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Stock Watch: Buy & Sell Analysis

Last week's Stock Watch recommended selling Brandon League, and the weekend after the article posted, League was removed as closer. Hopefully, you didn't own League in this season of the Closer Carousel.

Buy

  • Cliff Lee - Posting the same elite numbers that we are accustomed to -- except with zero wins on the season. Lee has the second-best SIERA among qualifying starters at 2.64, and his groundball rate is up while his line-drive percentage is down compared to last year. See if you can upgrade your rotation by acquiring Lee from an owner who is underrating Lee based on his unlucky shortage of wins.
  • A.J. Burnett - Sporting the 11th-best SIERA among qualifying starters at 3.11, Burnett's ERA is inflated by one horrific start. Take away the 12 earned runs Burnett gave up to the Cardinals on May 2, and his ERA would be a spectacular 1.52.
  • R.A. Dickey - Quietly enjoying an excellent season with seven wins and a 3.06 ERA. Dickey's strikeouts per nine innings has skyrocketed this season which has resulted in a 3.18 SIERA. Dickey is a legitimate mixed-league starter despite not carrying much name recognition.
  • Dexter Fowler - Hitting leadoff for the Rockies, Fowler is showing a nice power (eight home runs) and speed (5 stolen bases) combo. A hot streak has his batting average up to .282, yet his BABIP is actually lower than his career average. If Fowler can hold the leadoff position, he should be a huge source of runs, and while his homer pace will decrease, his power may continue to exceed his career norms as he enters the prime of his career.
  • Paul Goldschmidt - Dropped in many 12-team mixed leagues after a slow start, Goldschmidt has been hot in May with a .314 batting average and homers in two of his past four games. Goldschmidt even will chip in a few stolen bases, so he should be claimed where available on waiver wires.
  • Rajai Davis - Playing full time with the demotion of Eric Thames. Davis has big-time steal potential and has shown surprising pop this year.
  • Justin Smoak - Has hit four home runs in his past six games, and has six home runs and 18 RBIs in May. Smoak has increased value in daily leagues where he can be benched at home (.188 average at home compared to .257 away), and should be claimed in leagues where he remains on the waiver wire after a slow start.
  • Carlos Quentin - Hot to start the year after returning from injury, and his value will increase if he is traded to a contender with a better lineup and home park. In the meantime, Quentin will put up helpful power numbers hitting cleanup for the Padres.

Sell

  • Ryan Vogelsong - Keeps enjoying his career resurgence with a 2.36 ERA. However, troubling signs abound as his K/BB ratio is only 1.77 and he is enjoying an 84% left-on-base percentage. Vogelsong's 4.37 SIERA is a warning sign to owners that the ride may not last long.
  • Henderson Alvarez - Pitching in the AL East is a tough assignment for any starter, and Alvarez's 3.56 ERA is likely to spike in the near future. Alvarez K/BB ratio is an unsightly 1.19% and he is only striking out 2.60 batters per nine innings. His true skill set is reflected by a 4.58 SIERA and 5.49 FIP. Alvarez should not be rostered in 14-team mixed leagues.
  • Jarrod Parker - Now is the time to sell Parker and his steller 2.88 ERA. Parker's K/BB ratio is 1.38 and he is only striking out 6.42 batters per nine innings. Parker is also unlikely to earn many wins pitching for a weak Oakland lineup. Parker's 4.84 SIERA is a warning sign that his ERA is likely at the lowest point it will be all season.
  • Mark Trumbo - Rocking a .348 batting average that is not sustainable with a strikeout percentage over 20% and inflated .396 BABIP. ZiPS projects a .269 average for the remainder of the season. But, Trumbo's ISO is an excellent .284 and his power is for real, so target power-hungry owners by touting Trumbo's batting average.
  • Matt Adams - Strong out of the gate with a .317 batting average, but Allen Craig's return will cut into his playing time when Adams has his first slump. See what owners around the league will give up for the hot prospect.


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