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Stock Watch: Buy & Sell Analysis

In last week's Stock Watch I recommended selling Brett Myers and Rafael Dolis, and both had rough outings this week. But, they are not in immediate danger of losing their closer roles and remain sell-high candidates since Myers still is sporting an excellent stat line and Dolis' leash as closer was extended by Carlos Marmol's trip to the DL.

Buy

  • Alfonso Soriano - Dropped in many leagues after his slow start, Soriano has been heating up at the plate with home runs in two of his last three games. Eighty-degree weather is expected at Wrigley Field all weekend, and Soriano's bat should heat up along with it. Soriano will also be helped by Summer's shifting winds, which tend to blow out more frequently at Wrigley Field. Expect Soriano's dismal 5.7% HR/FB to creep up closer to the 14% he averaged last year as the season continues. Soriano is a good source of power that is available on many waiver wires.
  • Todd Frazier - Hit two HRs on Wednesday and is playing every day for the Reds while Scott Rolen is on the DL. Frazier had 15 HRs and 17 SBs in 359 Triple-A plate appearances last season. Frazier hits in a favorable home ballpark and could provide a nice power/speed combination until Rolen returns.
  • Bud Norris - Pitching for the Astros, Norris does not get the attention he deserves given his 8.94 K/9 rate and 3.58 ERA that is supported by a 3.34 SIERA and 3.61 FIP. Norris has also picked up four wins for the lowly Astros, and is a nice back-of-the-rotation source of strikeouts in 12-team mixed leagues. Norris' swinging strike percentage (11.7%) is the highest of his career. In the RotoAuthority League, I made the mistake of dropping Norris in mid-April after he went through a rough patch of starts. In Norris' last three starts, he has given up one earned run in 19 innings.
  • Andy Dirks - Hitting second for the powerful Tigers lineup, and hitting .429 with 7 RBIs and 11 runs in May.
  • Everth Cabrera - Recalled by the Padres to play SS, Cabrera had 15 SBs in Triple-A this season and could be a cheap source of speed from the waiver wire if he can get himself closer to the top of the Padres lineup from the seventh slot he occupied last night.

Sell

  • John Danks - Feel free to drop Danks in 12-team mixed leagues, as his ugly 6.46 ERA is consistent with his poor performance this season. Danks' walks per nine innings (4.18) are up since last year and his strikeouts per nine innings (4.94) are way down. This tandem has resulted in a 5.15 SIERA. Danks' swinging strike percentage (7.2%) is also the lowest of his career.
  • Ricky Romero - Following a season with a 2.92 ERA, Romero's ADP was 101.3 as he was the 25th highest drafted starter. Romero has not lived up to this lofty ranking with a 3.88 ERA and only 36 strikeouts in 53 1/3 innings. Yet, Romero's stats could be much worse as his walk rate is up compared to last season while his strikeout rate is down. Romero is sporting a 4.52 SIERA and a 4.60 FIP.
  • Omar Infante - When Infante burst out of the gate with five early HRs, it was difficult to sell him since owners were leery of his production continuing. But, Infante has continued to rack up stats as he is hitting .325 with 6 HRs and 4 SBs. Owners may be able to obtain more in trade for Infante now as his production has continued far enough into the season to be taken seriously. Infante's power is a mirage as his 12.5% HR/FB rate is more than double his career average, and his home ballpark will not do him any favors. Infante will steal a few more bags with Ozzie Guillen running the Marlins crazy, but he has already matched his 2011 SB total and the last time he stole double digit bases was 2004.
  • Rafael Furcal - Enjoying a monster season with a .367/2/17/28/7 slash line, Furcal's numbers are inflated by a .400 BABIP and fast start from the middle of the Cardinals lineup consistently knocking him in. Furcal has shown better plate discipline and increased his contact rate this season compared to 2011, but owners deep at MI should consider seeing what they can get for Furcal before a BABIP correction deflates his numbers and injuries take a toll on his older body. Furcal's plate appearances the past two seasons were 369 in 2011 and 428 in 2010.


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