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Yahoo and MDC ADP Analysis & Draft Tiers: Starting Pitchers

This week's ADP-related article will rank starting pitchers in order of their Yahoo and Mock Draft Central (MDC) average draft positions, and then identify draft tiers and strategies (position qualifications referenced in this article are based on Yahoo position qualifications). Using the standard 12-team mixed league format and six starting pitchers per team, the first 72 starting pitchers will be ranked. The draft tiers will have 12 starters per tier so that the tiers represent Starters Nos. 1-6 in a standard format with 12 teams each carrying six starters.

  1. Justin Verlander - 10.44 (12.6 Yahoo; 8.27 MDC)
  2. Clayton Kershaw - 14.6 (13.9 Yahoo; 15.3 MDC)
  3. Roy Halladay - 15.17 (15.6 Yahoo; 14.74 MDC)
  4. Cliff Lee - 21.15 (22.5 Yahoo; 19.80 MDC)
  5. Tim Lincecum - 25.88 (27.3 Yahoo; 24.46 MDC)
  6. Felix Hernandez - 28.01 (29.6 Yahoo; 26.42 MDC)
  7. CC Sabathia - 30.62 (30.6 Yahoo; 30.64 MDC)
  8. Cole Hamels - 32.13 (33.4 Yahoo; 30.85 MDC)
  9. Jered Weaver - 34.34 (35.3 Yahoo; 33.38 MDC)
  10. Dan Haren - 45.08 (47.8 Yahoo; 42.35 MDC)
  11. David Price - 45.89 (53.7 Yahoo; 38.07 MDC)
  12. Zack Greinke - 47.19 (45.0 Yahoo; 49.38 MDC)
  13. Yovani Gallardo - 55.14 (61.3 Yahoo; 48.98 MDC)
  14. Jon Lester - 56.73 (62.0 Yahoo; 51.45 MDC)
  15. Stephen Strasburg - 60.61 (57.1 Yahoo; 64.12 MDC)
  16. Matt Cain - 61.66 (62.6 Yahoo; 60.71 MDC)
  17. James Shields - 73.30 (79.8 Yahoo; 66.79 MDC)
  18. Ian Kennedy - 75.00 (79.9 Yahoo; 70.10 MDC)
  19. C.J. Wilson - 85.04 (84.6 Yahoo; 85.48 MDC)
  20. Madison Bumgarner - 85.48 (94.6 Yahoo; 76.35 MDC)
  21. Mat Latos - 91.78 (112.9 Yahoo; 70.66 MDC)
  22. Daniel Hudson - 93.33 (101.0 Yahoo; 85.66 MDC)
  23. Josh Johnson - 99.03 (97.5 Yahoo; 100.55 MDC)
  24. Tommy Hanson - 99.48 (104.9 Yahoo; 94.06 MDC)
  25. Matt Moore - 99.86 (97.4 Yahoo; 102.32 MDC) - RP Only in Yahoo
  26. Josh Beckett - 99.88 (108.5 Yahoo; 91.25 MDC)
  27. Michael Pineda - 100.29 (102.8 Yahoo; 97.78 MDC)
  28. Ricky Romero - 101.36 (115.3 Yahoo; 87.41 MDC)
  29. Yu Darvish - 102.48 (82.3 Yahoo; 122.66 MDC)
  30. Adam Wainwright - 108.94 (112.3 Yahoo; 105.58 MDC)
  31. Matt Garza - 109.57 (109.5 Yahoo; 109.63 MDC)
  32. Gio Gonzalez - 111.87 (117.8 Yahoo; 105.93 MDC)
  33. Brandon Beachy - 118.38 (121.7 Yahoo; 115.06 MDC)
  34. Chris Carpenter - 127.57 (128.5 Yahoo; 126.64 MDC)
  35. Jordan Zimmermann - 128.16 (136.8 Yahoo; 119.52 MDC)
  36. Johnny Cueto - 133.57 (153.8 Yahoo; 113.34 MDC)
  37. Cory Luebke - 134.26 (131.4 Yahoo; 137.12 MDC)
  38. Anibal Sanchez - 136.49 (142.8 Yahoo; 130.17 MDC)
  39. Tim Hudson - 146.97 (156.6 Yahoo; 137.34 MDC)
  40. Shaun Marcum - 148.32 (150.3 Yahoo; 146.33 MDC)
  41. Jeremy Hellickson - 152.25 (175.6 Yahoo; 128.89 MDC)
  42. Ubaldo Jimenez - 153.49 (151.8 Yahoo; 155.18 MDC)
  43. Max Scherzer - 158.88 (168.1 Yahoo; 149.65 MDC)
  44. Neftali Feliz - 162.60 (165.0 Yahoo; 160.19 MDC) RP Only in Yahoo
  45. Ervin Santana - 163.56 (176.6 Yahoo; 150.52 MDC)
  46. Brandon Morrow - 167.53 (152.1 Yahoo; 182.96 MDC)
  47. Hiroki Kuroda - 168.36 (164.9 Yahoo; 171.82 MDC)
  48. Jaime Garcia - 174.14 (170.9 Yahoo; 177.38 MDC)
  49. Derek Holland - 177.00 (185.1 Yahoo; 168.89 MDC)
  50. Doug Fister - 183.44 (181.8 Yahoo; 185.08 MDC)
  51. Wandy Rodriguez - 183.91 (195.0 Yahoo; 172.81 MDC)
  52. Jhoulys Chacin - 192.72 (192.2 Yahoo; 193.24 MDC)
  53. Clay Buchholz - 200.11 (190.8 Yahoo; 209.42 MDC)
  54. Justin Masterson - 201.66 (202.7 Yahoo; 200.62 MDC)
  55. Ryan Dempster - 208.06 (180.5 Yahoo; 235.61 MDC)
  56. Alexi Ogando - 208.76 (207.9 Yahoo; 209.61 MDC)
  57. Jair Jurrjens - 212.04 (209.4 Yahoo; 214.68 MDC)
  58. John Danks - 213.02 (235.1 Yahoo; 190.94 MDC)
  59. Trevor Cahill - 213.09 (247.6 Yahoo; 178.58 MDC)
  60. Chris Sale - 214.14 (195.5 Yahoo; 232.78 MDC) RP Only in Yahoo
  61. Bud Norris - 217.75 (205.0 Yahoo; 230.49 MDC)
  62. Colby Lewis - 217.93 (232.3 Yahoo; 203.56 MDC)
  63. Ivan Nova - 219.82 (201.2 Yahoo; 238.43 MDC)
  64. Ted Lilly - 221.97 (212.9 Yahoo; 231.03 MDC)
  65. Brandon McCarthy - 222.73 (240.4 Yahoo; 205.06 MDC)
  66. Edwin Jackson - 227.65 (218.1 Yahoo; 237.19 MDC)
  67. Johan Santana - 228.90 (228.7 Yahoo; 229.09 MDC)
  68. Scott Baker - 229.44 (247.4 Yahoo; 211.47 MDC)
  69. Edinson Volquez - 229.48 (229.9 Yahoo; 229.05 MDC)
  70. Ryan Vogelsong - 230.33 (240.8 Yahoo; 219.85 MDC)
  71. Aroldis Chapman - 230.47 (220.3 Yahoo; 240.63 MDC) RP Only in Yahoo
  72. Roy Oswalt - 231.4 (232.0 Yahoo; 230.80 MDC)
  • Notes: Javier Vazquez - 228.17 (241.7 Yahoo; 214.64 MDC) was not included since he appears to be retired and is unlikely to be drafted in the top 72 starters.
  • Tiers:
    • Starting Pitcher No. 1 in 12-team mixed leagues (Ranks 1-12): Verlander, Kershaw, Halladay, Lee, Lincecum, Hernandez, Sabathia, Hamels, Weaver, Haren, Price, Greinke.
    • Starting Pitcher No. 2 in 12-team mixed leagues (Ranks 13-24): Gallardo, Lester, Strasburg, Cain, Shields, Kennedy, Wilson, Bumgarner, Latos, Hudson, Johnson, Hanson.
    • Starting Pitcher No. 3 in 12 team mixed leagues (Ranks 25-36): Moore, Beckett, Pineda, Romero, Darvish, Wainwright, Garza, Gonzalez, Beachy, Carpenter, Zimmerman, Cueto.
    • Starting Pitcher No. 4 in 12-team mixed leagues (Ranks 37-48): Luebke, Sanchez, Hudson, Marcum, Hellickson, Jimenez, Scherzer, Feliz, Santana, Morrow, Kuroda, Garcia.
    • Starting Pitcher No. 5 in 12-team mixed leagues (Ranks 49-60): Holland, Fister, Rodriguez, Chacin, Buchholz, Masterson, Dempster, Ogando, Jurrjens, Danks, Cahill, Sale.
    • Starting Pitcher No. 6 in 12-team mixed leagues (Ranks 61-72): Norris, Lewis, Nova, Lilly, McCarthy, Jackson, Santana, Baker, Volquez, Vogelsong, Chapman, Oswalt.
  • Draft Strategy: Starting pitching is top heavy within the first three tiers and then levels out into deep but interchangeable quality.  An owner should make sure to have at least three starters from the first three tiers since the quality of starting pitching is so top heavy. ...  Tiers 4, 5, 6 and other draftable starters are deep, and owners can feel comfortable waiting on drafting within these tiers. ... When drafting, the starters in Tiers 1-3 should be used as guideposts to make sure that you are drafting a starter from each tier. If you realize that only a few starters from Tier 1 remain and you have not drafted a starter, you should be alerted that you need to draft a No. 1 starter (same with Tiers 2 and 3). Similarly, if all of the Tier 1 and 2 starters have been drafted and you only have one starter, then you should be alerted that you need to draft multiple Tier 3 starters. ... Within Tier 1, Haren, Price and Greinke provide excellent value compared to their ADP, and an owner can feel comfortable waiting on those three to draft their No. 1 starter.  However, if any of the top six ranked starters fall too far below their ADPs, then an owner should jump at the chance to draft any of those six. ... Within Tier 2, Bumgarner and Hudson provide solid value at the end of the tier. ... Tier 3 is still loaded with top-heavy talent compared to ADP such as Moore, Garza, Beachy & Zimmermann. Within Tier 4, Luebke, Sanchez & Feliz stick out as excellent value picks.  Tiers 5, 6 and other draftable starters provide deep value, so owners should avoid reaching for any starter within these tiers since the first six starters listed as "other draftable starters" make excellent fallback plans as No. 6 starters. Lilly, McCarthy & Baker in Tier 6 have more value than most of the Tier 5 starters and provide excellent targets compared to their ADP.
  • Draft Strategy (Yahoo ADPs): Owners should keep in mind the starters listed as "RP Only in Yahoo" means that they will not appear within the list of starting pitchers in the draft tool. For this reason, owners searching for starting pitchers may overlook them. Do not make this mistake. Within Yahoo's ADP, Darvish (Yahoo Default Ranking 85 compared to 82.3 Yahoo ADP), Dempster (Yahoo Default Ranking 180 compared to 180.5 Yahoo ADP), Sale (Yahoo Default Ranking 199 compared to 195.5 Yahoo ADP), & Nova (Yahoo Default Ranking 381 compared to 201.2 Yahoo ADP) are being drafted too early in Yahoo drafts (even though Darvish, Dempster & Sale are nice targets at their MDC ADP). Baker (Yahoo Default Ranking 230 compared to 247.4 Yahoo ADP), McCarthy (Yahoo Default Ranking 225 compared to 240.4 Yahoo ADP) & Cahill (Yahoo Default Ranking 255 compared to 247.6 Yahoo ADP) are being drafted too low in Yahoo drafts.


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