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Yahoo and MDC ADP Analysis & Draft Tiers: Second Basemen and Shortstops

This week's ADP-related article will rank second basemen and shortstops in order of their Yahoo and Mock Draft Central average draft positions, and then identify draft tiers and strategies (position qualifications referenced in this article are based on Yahoo position qualifications). Based on popular commentary requests, next week's ADP article will compare default player rankings from Yahoo, ESPN & CBS Sportsline to identify players whose ADP may slip in drafts on these websites as a result of undervalued default rankings:

Second Basemen

  1. Robinson Cano - 9.43 (7.9 Yahoo; 10.95 MDC)
  2. Dustin Pedroia - 18.91 (18.2 Yahoo; 19.61 MDC)
  3. Ian Kinsler - 22.67 (21.3 Yahoo; 24.04 MDC)
  4. Dan Uggla - 51.68 (48.3 Yahoo; 55.06 MDC)
  5. Brandon Phillips - 60.05 (59.7 Yahoo; 60.40 MDC)
  6. Michael Young - 64.3 (56.9 Yahoo; 71.70 MDC) - 1B, 3B
  7. Ben Zobrist - 66.40 (54.1 Yahoo; 78.69 MDC) - OF
  8. Chase Utley - 72.60 (66.8 Yahoo; 78.39 MDC)
  9. Rickie Weeks - 84.16 (89.4 Yahoo; 78.92 MDC)
  10. Michael Cuddyer - 87.61 (80.3 Yahoo; 94.92 MDC) - 1B, OF
  11. Howie Kendrick - 91.84 (79.3 Yahoo; 104.37 MDC) - 1B, OF
  12. Dustin Ackley - 139.41 (141.8 Yahoo; 137.01 MDC)
  13. Jemile Weeks - 154.60 (158.4 Yahoo; 150.79 MDC)
  14. Neil Walker - 154.68 (168.3 Yahoo; 141.06 MDC)
  15. Danny Espinosa - 170.28 (193.4 Yahoo; 147.15 MDC)
  16. Jason Kipnis - 192.96 (221.1 Yahoo; 164.82 MDC)
  17. Ryan Roberts - 205.98 (216. 3 Yahoo; 195.65 MDC)
  18. Kelly Johnson - 227.17 (214.8 Yahoo; 239.54 MDC)
  • Tiers:
    • Tier 1: Ranks 1-3 (Cano, Pedroia, Kinsler)
    • Tier 2: Ranks 4-11 (Uggla, Phillips, Young, Zobrist, Utley, Weeks, Cuddyer, Kendrick)
    • Tier 3: Ranks 12-18 (Ackley, Weeks, Walker, Espinosa, Kipnis, Roberts, Johnson)
  • Draft Strategy: Second base provides deep production with large tiers of players worth comparable value, so don't reach when the beginning of a tier starts to get drafted. ... Preferably, owners will take one of the last players from either Tier 1 or 2 as their second baseman. ... Since shortstop is not as deep, owners are likely to draft a second baseman to fill the MI roster spot. Owners that draft from Tier 1 should continue to target a low Tier 2 second baseman for MI rather than ignore second basemen following the early draft pick. ... Within Tier 2, Young, Cuddyer and Kendrick provide good value compared to ADP in Yahoo leagues, as the second base qualification provides additional roster flexibility for each player. ... Within Tier 3, Johnson provides excellent value compared to ADP and is a good MI target. ... Hill and Murphy are sneaky-upside MI selections outside the top 18 and provide depth at the position, so an owner does not need to reach within Tier 3.

Shortstops

  1. Troy Tulowitzki - 5.18 (5.0 Yahoo; 5.36 MDC)
  2. Jose Reyes - 20.04 (19.5 Yahoo; 20.58 MDC)
  3. Hanley Ramirez - 21.1 (21.9 Yahoo; 20.30 MDC)
  4. Starlin Castro - 41.14 (39.9 Yahoo; 42.38 MDC)
  5. Elvis Andrus - 45.76 (47.3 Yahoo; 44.22 MDC)
  6. Asdrubal Cabrera - 73.06 (70.5 Yahoo; 75.62 MDC)
  7. Jimmy Rollins - 83.47 (78.1 Yahoo; 88.84 MDC)
  8. Derek Jeter - 117.24 (112.7 Yahoo; 121.77 MDC)
  9. J.J. Hardy - 134.27 (134.9 Yahoo; 133.64 MDC)
  10. Dee Gordon - 142.35 (140. 9 Yahoo; 143.79 MDC)
  11. Alexei Ramirez - 150.36 (140.6 Yahoo; 160.11 MDC)
  12. Erick Aybar - 153.98 (163.3 Yahoo; 144.65 MDC)
  13. Emilio Bonifacio - 165.25 (156.6 Yahoo; 173.89 MDC) - 3B, OF
  14. Jhonny Peralta - 168.51 (162.7 Yahoo; 174.31 MDC)
  15. Stephen Drew - 190.86 (232.1 Yahoo; 149.61 MDC)
  16. Yunel Escobar - 206.29 (198.7 Yahoo; 213.87 MDC)
  17. Mike Aviles - 239.31 (234.6 Yahoo; 244.02 MDC) - 2B, 3B
  18. Ian Desmond - 242.71 (237.3 Yahoo; 248.12 MDC)
  • Tiers:
    • Tier 1: Rank 1 (Tulowitzki)
    • Tier 2: Ranks 2-3 (Reyes, Ramirez)
    • Tier 3: Ranks 4-5 (Castro, Andrus)
    • Tier 4: Ranks 6-8 (Cabrera, Rollins, Jeter)
    • Tier 5: Ranks 9-14 (Hardy, Gordon, Ramirez, Aybar, Bonifacio)
    • Tier 6: Ranks 15-18 (Drew, Escobar, Aviles, Desmond)
  • Draft Strategy: The drop in value as the draft progresses is much steeper and swifter at shortstop than at second base, and as a result, the draft tiers are smaller at shortstop. ... Outside of Tulowitzki (a legitimate top 3 pick), the shortstop position is being drafted too early compared to the production from players at other positions drafted with similar ADPs, so owners are encouraged to avoid reaching to fill the shortstop position from Tiers 2-4. ... Reyes (injury risk/BA floor similar to his xBAs from 2009 (.259), 2010 (.274) and 2011 (.290)/dropoff in SBs after getting paid) and Ramirez (lost 2011/position change affecting hitting) have too many concerns for me to draft in the second round. ... Andrus has been widely publicized as overrated and could make a nice selection if he falls to the 5th or sixth round; Ron Shandler's Baseball Forecaster notes Andrus has .300 BA and 50 SB upside, and with a few more HRs in his home ballpark he could provide Reyes-like value three or four rounds later. ... Each of the Tier 5 shortstops provide good value compared to ADP and will be my targeted shortstop picks. ... Owners only need to select one shortstop in the draft and then avoid the position by filling out the MI roster spot from the deeper and more talented second-base pool.


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