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9 Players I'd Rather Not Draft

You know the drill. This isn't "avoid at all costs." If one of these players falls far enough from his ADP, draft him. Otherwise, stay away.

Yes, ADP, your favorite acronymn. You see it in your Alphabits and in your dreams. In dark alleys, your imagination manifests silhouettes of "ADP." A. D. P. ADP!

Again, we'll be using data from FantasyPros.com. 

David Wright, ADP 32.2: Eric Karabell continues to pimp David Wright as being undervalued, but I don't see it. I'd much prefer Brett Lawrie or Pablo Sandoval. No injury concerns, and it almost feels as if Wright's upside is Lawrie's floor, as bizarre as that sounds. Wright did lower his SwStr% (10.4% in 2010, 7.7% in '11) and increase his Contact% (76.6% in '10, 81.8% in '11), but he only managed a 12% HR/FB, and his GB% reached a career high. There are too many question marks to justify spending a third round pick on Wright.

Starlin Castro, 54.7: We've been over this. Overrated because of his youth and imagined upside, although it does seem that the fantasy community is slowly catching on. 

Elvis Andrus, 62.2: See above. As I preached back in January, don't draft these two. There are so many other valuable options in the fourth and fifth rounds (Brett Lawrie, Stephen Strasburg, Yovani Gallardo). I'd rather have Dee Gordon

Michael Bourn, 60.6: Give me Coco Crisp 110 spots later. Bourn managed 722 PA last year. With 650 PA and BA regression (.271 career BA), you've got Crisp with 5 or 10 more SB. Note that Coco stole 49 bases in only 583 PA in 2011. 

Daniel Hudson, 102.9: Amongst pitchers with 150 or more IP in 2011, Hudson was 46th in SIERA (3.78). There are too many other enticing options at SP near this ADP to consider drafting Hudson (Mat Latos, Adam Wainwright, Matt Moore, Yu Darvish). 

Adam Jones, 105.1: Career GB% of 48.8%. HR/FB% fluctuating from 7% to 17%. Atrocious BB%. Career SwStr% of 13%. Career high of 12 SB. Floundering organization with mediocre lineup. Trouble staying on the field (132 G in ’08, 119 in ’09). Maybe people see his 2007 AAA numbers and still think upside? There is no upside here. He’ll end up hitting sixth again when he posts one of his patented sub .300 wOBA months. Note also that he scored 68 runs last year. Mediocre player in terribad situation. Why?

Jeremy Hellickson, 144.9. Steve Slowinski of FanGraphs.com wrote an excellent article concerning Hellickson and BABIP a few days ago. I suggest you read it. BABIP (or, in this case, what should really be called BABIPA) is a complex and misunderstood stat, mostly because it is quite imprecise. We need to know more about the nature of the hits, hence Steve's mention of the holy grail HITF/X data. However, for a pitcher, as for a hitter, there are certain parameters of sustainability. Ichiro's BABIP fluctuated to .399 (!), but always came back to the .330s. Obviously, Hellickson cannot post another .223 BABIPA. With a 5.57 K/9 and 4.78 SIERA in 2011, please let someone else draft Hellickson. Please take Cory Luebke, Anibal Sanchez, or Brandon Morrow instead. 

Johnny Cueto, 152.2: Umm, blech? 60th in SIERA (3.93) in 2011 with a 6.00 K/9. Stay far, far away. 

Justin Morneau, 208.4: At this point, Morneau is just a name. He has given us no reason to believe he can return to pre-concussion performance levels. I'm rooting for him, but I'm not drafting him. 

Good luck in your drafts, kids. Don't be afraid to reach for the player you want. Do bring a printout of your tiered rankings, in order to quickly and easily cross players off. Don't reach for positions or categories. The season is loooong. Get the best player available and work the rest out later. If it's close between two or three players, obviously draft the player that fills category and position needs. As they say in Chinese, jia you 加油!


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