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Yahoo and MDC ADP Analysis & Draft Tiers - First Basemen

Yahoo has released their draft results so this week's ADP article will rank first basemen in order of their Yahoo and Mock Draft Central average draft positions, and then identify draft tiers and strategies. In the coming weeks I will look at other hitting positions and pitchers. Here we go with the first basemen (position qualifications referenced in this article are based on Yahoo position qualifications):

  1. Miguel Cabrera - 2.06 (2.52 MDC; 1.6 Yahoo)
  2. Albert Pujols - 3.13 (2.85 MDC; 3.4 Yahoo)
  3. Joey Votto - 8.51 (9.32 MDC; 7.7 Yahoo)
  4. Adrian Gonzalez - 9.14 (9.37 MDC; 8.9 Yahoo)
  5. Prince Fielder - 13.49 (14.07 MDC; 12.9 Yahoo)
  6. Mark Teixeira - 25.29 (27.17 MDC; 23.4 Yahoo)
  7. Paul Konerko - 52.22 (48.24 MDC; 56.2 Yahoo)
  8. Eric Hosmer - 63.65 (52.79 MDC; 74.5 Yahoo)
  9. Michael Morse - 74.49 (78.88 MDC; 70.1 Yahoo)
  10. Lance Berkman - 85.98 (92.15 MDC; 79.8 Yahoo) (OF eligibility)
  11. Ryan Howard - 115.38 (148.45 MDC; 82.3 Yahoo)
  12. Billy Butler - 126.48 (121.55 MDC; 131.4 Yahoo)
  13. Freddie Freeman - 133.51 (121.91 MDC; 145.1 Yahoo)
  14. Nick Swisher - 136.12 (122.93 MDC; 149.3 Yahoo)
  15. Paul Goldschmidt - 142.75 (146.7 MDC; 138.8 Yahoo)
  16. Ike Davis - 151.75 (174.00 MDC; 129.5 Yahoo)
  17. Adam Lind - 163.11 (150.82 MDC; 175.4 Yahoo)
  18. Mark Trumbo - 166.42 (141.94 MDC; 190.9 Yahoo)
  19. Justin Morneau - 196.35 (162.10 MDC; 230.6 Yahoo)
  20. Kendrys Morales - 207.81 (213.22 MDC; 202.4 Yahoo)
  21. Carlos Lee - 208.16 (190.11 MDC; 226.2 Yahoo) (OF)
  22. Gaby Sanchez - 214.41 (198.21 MDC; 230.6 Yahoo)
  23. Brandon Belt - 223.51 (206.12 MDC; 240.9 Yahoo) (OF)
  24. Lucas Duda - 224.76 (226.91 MDC; 222.6 Yahoo) (OF)
  25. Todd Helton - 226.05 (220.50 MDC; 231.6 Yahoo)
  26. John Mayberry - 228.17 (227.13 MDC; 229.2 Yahoo) (OF)
  27. Justin Smoak - 232.34 (222.97 MDC; 241.7 Yahoo)
  28. Derrek Lee - 235.36 (232.72 MDC; 238 Yahoo)
  29. Carlos Pena - 236.61 (221.81 MDC; 251.4 Yahoo)
  30. Adam Dunn - 237.57 (227.93 MDC; 247.2 Yahoo)
  31. Aubrey Huff - 238.17 (253.33 MDC; 223.0 Yahoo) (OF)
  32. Adam LaRoche - 242.99 (242.99 MDC; --- Yahoo)
  33. Mitch Moreland - 244.10 (237.09 MDC; 251.1 Yahoo) (OF)
  34. James Loney - 245.68 (225.35 MDC; 266 Yahoo)
  35. Mike Carp - 247.66 (231.62 MDC; 263.7 Yahoo) (OF)
  36. Jesus Guzman - 255.40 (255.40 MDC; --- Yahoo)
  37. Garrett Jones - 255.68 (281.25 MDC; 230.1 Yahoo)
  38. Casey Kotchman - 262.64 (262.64 MDC; --- Yahoo)
  39. Anthony Rizzo - 268.99 (309.17 MDC; 228.8 Yahoo)
  • Tiers -
    • Tier 1: Ranks 1-6 (Cabrera; Pujols; Votto; Gonzalez; Fielder; Teixeira)
    • Tier 2: Ranks 7-10 (Konerko; Hosmer; Morse; Berkman)
    • Tier 3: Ranks 11-17 (Howard; Butler; Freeman; Swisher; Goldschmidt; Davis; Lind)
    • Tier 4: Ranks 18-21 (Trumbo; Morneau; Morales; Lee)
    • Tier 5: Ranks 22-30 (Sanchez; Belt; Duda; Helton; Mayberry; Smoak; Lee; Pena; Dunn)
    • Tier 6: Ranks 31-39 (Huff; LaRoche; Moreland; Loney; Carp; Guzman; Jones; Kotchman; Rizzo)
  • Draft Strategy (assuming standard 12 team mixed league with active roster slots for 1B, 3B and CI) - 1B is significantly deeper this year than 3B so owners will want to draft their CI and their bench CI from the 1B position. If you were to draft a CI from the 3B position, you would be selecting from David Freese as the 13th 3B per Yahoo ADP compared to Freddie Freeman as the 13th 1B. The dropoff is even more significant the deeper you go with 3B as Scott Rolen is 18th, Ian Stewart is 19th and Placido Polanco is 20th (all per Yahoo) compared to the Tier 4 and 5 1Bs. Therefore, owners should target a Tier 1 or 2 1B for their 1B slot, a Tier 3 1B for their CI position, and a Tier 4 or 5 1B for their bench CI slot. Selecting Cabrera with a top 3 pick, and then selecting multiple Tier 2 and 3 1Bs to CI and bench is another strategy since Cabrera will likely have 3B eligibility by early April, at which time you can activate the 1B drafted to your bench into the 1B slot vacated by Cabrera.
  • Tier Values - The average draft slots for the first two tiers is consistent with their projected values. Within Tier 3, owners should target Freeman, Goldschmidt, Davis & Lind compared to their draft positions. Owners should then skip drafting the Tier 4 1Bs and use picks in the 160-210 range to fill out their rotations and back-end closers. Within the Tier 5 1Bs, Sanchez is an excellent value as a CI or to the bench. In addition, Belt, Duda, Pena & Dunn provide good value as bench CIs at their draft positions. The Tier 6 1Bs will likely be added and dropped throughout the season corresponding to hot and cold streaks - LaRoche, Moreland & Carp should be the players drafted within this tier as bench CIs.


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