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Yahoo and MDC ADP Analysis & Draft Tiers: Catchers & Third Basemen

This week's ADP-related article will rank catchers and third basemen in order of their Yahoo and Mock Draft Central average draft positions, and then identify draft tiers and strategies (position qualifications referenced in this article are based on Yahoo position qualifications):

Catchers

  1. Carlos Santana - 40.59 (44.8 Yahoo; 36.37 MDC) 1B
  2. Mike Napoli - 47.13 (47.4 Yahoo; 46.86 MDC) 1B
  3. Brian McCann - 52.91 (55.0 Yahoo; 50.81 MDC)
  4. Buster Posey - 65.15 (70.9 Yahoo; 59.40 MDC)
  5. Joe Mauer - 80.07 (80.9 Yahoo; 79.24 MDC) 1B
  6. Matt Wieters - 95.46 (94.1 Yahoo; 96.81 MDC)
  7. Miguel Montero - 105.5 (108.2 Yahoo; 102.80 MDC)
  8. Alex Avila - 107.2 (104.9 Yahoo; 109.50 MDC)
  9. Yadier Molina - 177.3 (178.8 Yahoo; 175.80 MDC)
  10. J.P. Arencibia - 177.89 (175.9 Yahoo; 179.88 MDC)
  11. Geovany Soto - 203.02 (175.7 Yahoo; 230.34 MDC)
  12. Wilson Ramos - 212.84 (214.4 Yahoo; 211.28 MDC)
  13. Russell Martin - 217.26 (193.4 Yahoo; 241.11 MDC)
  14. Nick Hundley - 226.95 (215.2 Yahoo; 238.69 MDC)
  15. Kurt Suzuki - 229.58 (212.1 Yahoo; 247.05 MDC)
  16. Carlos Ruiz - 229.74 (211.4 Yahoo; 248.07 MDC)
  17. A.J. Pierzynski - 231.16 (211.7 Yahoo; 250.61 MDC)
  18. Chris Iannetta - 231.37 (215.7 Yahoo; 247.04 MDC)
  19. Jarrod Saltalamacchia - 232.01 (224.0 Yahoo; 240.02 MDC)
  20. Ryan Doumit - 233.85 (225.1 Yahoo; 242.60 MDC)
  21. Jonathan Lucroy - 234.47 (222.3 Yahoo; 246.63 MDC)
  22. Ramon Hernandez - 235.14 (222.7 Yahoo; 247.57 MDC)
  23. Yorvit Torrealba - 235.75 (--- Yahoo; 235.75 MDC)
  24. Salvador Perez - 235.97 (232.0 Yahoo; 239.93 MDC)
  25. Devin Mesoraco - 236.01 (227.3 Yahoo; 244.71 MDC)
  26. John Buck - 236.23 (222.9 Yahoo; 249.55 MDC)
  27. Miguel Olivo - 240.87 (232.8 Yahoo; 248.94 MDC)
  28. Rod Barajas - 282.28 (--- Yahoo; 282.28 MDC)
  29. Ryan Hanigan - 283.32 (--- Yahoo; 283.32 MDC)
  • Tiers -
    • Tier #1: Ranks 1-4 (Santana; Napoli; McCann; Posey)
    • Tier #2: Ranks 5-7 (Mauer; Wieters; Montero)
    • Tier #3: Ranks 8-10 (Avila; Molina; Arencibia)
    • Tier #4: Ranks 11-20 (Soto; Ramos; Martin; Hundley; Suzuki; Ruiz; Pierzynski; Iannetta; Saltalamacchia; Doumit)
    • Tier #5: Ranks 21-29 (Lucroy; Hernandez; Torrealba; Perez; Mesoraco; Buck; Olivo; Barajas; Hanigan)
  • Draft Strategy (assuming standard 12-team mixed league with two active catchers) - In a two-catcher league, the top 15 or so catchers rarely fall to their ADPs. The catcher position is top heavy, and the Tier 4 and 5 catchers are a crapshoot of similarly situated players. For this reason, owners should target a Tier 1 or 2 catcher to pair with a Tier 4 catcher. Under this strategy, owners should target Santana, McCann, Wieters or Montero as their top catcher at or slightly above their ADPs, and then let the Tier 3 and 4 catcher runs play out before grabbing any Tier 4 catcher that slips compared to ADP. If owners avoid the first two Tiers then they should slightly reach for Molina or Arencibia compared to ADP, and target a stronger Tier 4 catcher such as Ramos. Tier 5 catchers to target as either second active catchers for those who punt the position due to its depth or third catchers to stream are Perez and Mesoraco. Those two have the most upside within Tier 5.
  • Draft Strategy (assuming standard 12-team mixed league with one active catcher) - In a one-catcher league, owners will have significantly better options for backup catchers on their bench to stream on off-days for their starting catcher. For this reason, owners should avoid the Tier 1 catchers and draft Wieters or Montero in the 90-115 range. If those catchers are missed, owners should wait until around the 170 range to draft Molina or Arencibia, and then pair either with a high-upside Tier 4 catcher such as Ramos, Iannetta, or Saltalamacchia. Since there will be safe catcher options on the waiver wire the backup catcher should be one with higher upside.
  • Draft Strategy (Yahoo ADPs) - Santana (Yahoo default ranking 45) is falling slightly more in Yahoo drafts compared to MDC, and is easier to draft if falling into the fourth round. Soto (Yahoo default ranking 178) and Martin (Yahoo default ranking 276) are overrated in Yahoo drafts compared to MDC. For Soto, his 175.7 Yahoo ADP is caused by his 178 default ranking. Martin's 193.4 Yahoo ADP is inexplicable.

Third Basemen

  1. Jose Bautista - 4.92 (5.5 Yahoo; 4.34 MDC) OF
  2. Evan Longoria - 12.64 (13.4 Yahoo; 11.88 MDC)
  3. Adrian Beltre - 29.15 (26.7 Yahoo; 31.60 MDC)
  4. David Wright - 32.01 (31.2 Yahoo; 32.82 MDC)
  5. Ryan Zimmerman - 40.01 (37.4 Yahoo; 42.62 MDC)
  6. Alex Rodriguez - 53.6 (46.0 Yahoo; 61.20 MDC)
  7. Brett Lawrie - 55.08 (54.4 Yahoo; 55.75 MDC)
  8. Pablo Sandoval - 56.43 (42.7 Yahoo; 70.15 MDC) 1B
  9. Michael Young - 64.79 (58.0 Yahoo; 71.58 MDC) 1B, 2B
  10. Kevin Youkilis - 74.22 (63.9 Yahoo; 84.53 MDC) 1B
  11. Aramis Ramirez - 75.03 (80.7 Yahoo; 69.36 MDC)
  12. Mark Reynolds - 116.06 (114.0 Yahoo; 118.12 MDC) 1B
  13. David Freese - 149.98 (136.8 Yahoo; 163.16 MDC)
  14. Martin Prado - 168.59 (148.8 Yahoo; 188.38 MDC) OF
  15. Mike Moustakas - 198.84 (181.8 Yahoo; 215.88 MDC)
  16. Ryan Roberts - 209.43 (221.7 Yahoo; 197.15 MDC) 2B
  17. Edwin Encarnacion - 214.16 (197.2 Yahoo; 231.12 MDC) 1B
  18. Mat Gamel - 222.35 (---Yahoo; 222.35 MDC)
  • Notes - Emilio Bonafacio is not listed since owners will slot him at SS.
  • Tiers -
    • Tier #1: Ranks 1-2 (Bautista; Longoria)
    • Tier #2: Ranks 3-8 (Beltre; Wright; Zimmerman; Rodriguez; Lawrie; Sandoval)
    • Tier #3: Ranks 9-12 (Young; Youkilis; Ramirez; Reynolds)
    • Tier #4: Ranks 13-18 (Freese; Prado; Moustakas; Roberts; Encarnacion; Gamel)
  • Draft Strategy (assuming standard 12-team mixed league with active roster slots for 1B, 3B and CI) - Due to the lack of depth at third base, owners will want to fill their CI slot with a first baseman since first basemen in the 12-18 range are significantly better than the third basemen in this range. Owners are encouraged to select the Tier 1 third basemen in the first round (and pair with a Round 2 hitter with a good batting average). The Tier 2 third basemen offer similar value but should be targeted by any owner that needs a third baseman when there are only a few Tier 2 third basemen left. There is a significant drop in quality between the Tier 3 and 4 third basemen, so owners should not let all of the Tier 3 players get drafted before they have a third basemen. Within Tier 4, owners should target Moustakas, Encarnacion and Gamel compared to their ADPs as bench CIs with upside.
  • Draft Strategy (Yahoo ADPs) - The top third basemen are being taken earlier in Yahoo leagues, particularly A-Rod and Sandoval, so owners should not reach for Tier 2 third basemen since they offer similar value. Tier 4 players Freese and Prado are being drafted much too high in Yahoo leagues, most likely by owners that were left reaching for a third baseman since they missed out on Tiers 1-3. Avoid this mistake. Gamel makes a nice end-draft bench pick in Yahoo leagues since his Yahoo default ranking is 1177, so he will not even be on most owners' radar screens during Yahoo drafts.


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