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Tumbling ADPs

Today in the New York Times, RotoWire's Derek VanRiper posed an interesting question:

Would you be much worse off drafting with 2011 cheat sheets instead of 2012 ones?

VanRiper's point is that "there is a reason that 'last year’s bums' often return a profit the following season."  One simple way of determining last year's biggest bums is by finding the difference between 2012 and 2011 average draft position numbers.  Fortunately I have records of last year's ADPs, so here's the list minus certain players who are unsigned or out for all of 2012:

  1. Ian Stewart: 278.7 difference
  2. Scott Rolen: 266.04
  3. Chone Figgins: 192.04
  4. Adam Dunn: 186.69
  5. Ryan Ludwick: 167.43
  6. Francisco Liriano: 162.5
  7. Pedro Alvarez: 162.01
  8. Alex Rios: 157.66
  9. Aubrey Huff: 156.01
  10. Chad Billingsley: 151.07
  11. Ryan Dempster: 148.07
  12. Alfonso Soriano: 139.44
  13. Casey McGehee: 138.86
  14. Grady Sizemore: 138.38
  15. Randy Wells: 137.64
  16. Mike Aviles: 134.73
  17. Geovany Soto: 132.84
  18. Kelly Johnson: 125.89
  19. Bobby Abreu: 124.84
  20. Juan Uribe: 124.78

Many of the starting pitchers are intriguing, as well as Dunn, Alvarez, Rios, Aviles, Soto, and Johnson.  Other interesting names who have taken an ADP tumble include Colby Rasmus, Ubaldo Jimenez, Clay Buchholz, Joakim Soria, Jason Kubel, Andre Ethier, Gavin Floyd, Colby Lewis, John Danks, Torii Hunter, Derek Jeter, Kurt Suzuki, Aaron Hill, Alexei Ramirez, Joe Mauer, Chase Utley, Edwin Jackson, Brandon Morrow, and Jason Heyward.

I know it seems disgusting to draft Dunn right now, but a year ago he was considered a fourth-round player.  Rios went the following round.  Liriano and Billingsley, seventh or eighth round starters.  Ubaldo was a fourth-round rotation anchor, and Ethier the same for your outfield.  Fight the instinct to avoid all of last year's bums, and you'll surely find bargains.


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