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Antiseptic Fantasy Baseball Analysis

I will compose this post in the style of antiseptic, businesslike humorlessness, devoid of exclamation, metaphor, and pun. 

Please find analysis of the Fantasy Sports Trade Association draft held in Las Vegas, Nevada on January 17th, 2012, below.

Round 1) 

Questionable: Evan Longoria, 10. Longoria's 2011: the finest BB/K (0.86) of his inchoate career, a return to a robust HR/FB (17.6%), and a flaccid BABIP (.239) despite acceptable LD% (18.0), thereby evincing the potential reappearance of a palatable BA. Given injury woe, risk remains demonstrably high. Not projectable past 5 SB. 

Desirable: Justin Upton, 11. Upton's LD% (18.9%, 19.3%, 18.2% in '11) consistent, GB% and FB% trends opposing diametrically (GB%: 45.5, 41.4, 36.9 in '11; FB%: 35.7, 39.4, 44.8 in '11). If HR/FB returns to '09 levels (18.8%), 40 HR attainable. 

Round 2)

Questionable: David Wright, 19. Flushing fences shortening, Wright's contact rate rebounding (76.6% in '10, 81.8% in '11), yet mediocre in 2011. 

Desirable: Clayton Kershaw, 23. Kershaw's dramatic BB/9 reduction (3.59 in '10 to 2.08 in '11) portends sustained greatness (Pedro Martinez, 1999, Randy Johnson, 1993). 

Round 3) 

Questionable: Elvis Andrus, 29. Empty .275 BA/35 SB. Abhorrently overrated. 

Desirable: Matt Holliday, 36. 126 games in 2011 and speed lacking, but only 32, and a near lock for .300/25/100.

Round 4)

Questionable: Eric Hosmer, 52. Upside of youth, but Kansas City Royals 1B with a 49.7% GB.

Desirable: Ryan Braun, 47. Worst case scenario, a top 5 player for 2/3 season combined with 1/3 season replacement level.  Best case scenario, Braun avoids suspension, and satisfaction comes replete. 

Round 5)

Questionable: Brandon Phillips, 62. Phillips's HR/FB% and speed in steady decline since 2007.  2011 LD% increase elevated BABIP, but .265/15/10 downside. 

Desirable: Felix Hernandez, 58. K/9 on 5 year climb. 2010 SIERA 3.20; 2011 SIERA 3.22. 

Round 6)

Questionable: Mark Reynolds, 68. 15 extra HR do not merit .200 BA downside and mediocre counting stats. 

Desirable: Zack Greinke, 70. See last week's comment-provoking article. 

Round 7)

Questionable: Adam Jones, 86. Jones's SB totals, last four seasons: 10, 10, 7, 12. O's offense unimpressive, often hurt, poor counting stats. 

Desirable: Mike Morse, 87. 2011 HR/FB of 21.2%, seventh in MLB. Of those seven, only Prince Fielder and Jose Bautista had a lower K%.

Round 8)

Questionable: Erick Aybar, 101. Aybar is Ryan Theriot, Chicago Cubs. Useful, but don't reach.

Desirable: Craig Kimbrel, 94. Obscene 1.62 SIERA, 14.84 K/9. Invest in elite talent. 

Round 9)

Questionable: Yadier Molina, 114. One fair offensive season at 29. Do not overvalue. 

Desirable: Lance Berkman, 109. Loses Pujols, slides up in lineup. Showed that 2010 was an aberration, posting a LD/GB/FB% of 22.1/38.7/39.2, and a HR/FB of 19.9%, third best in his career.   

Round 10)

Questionable: Neil Walker, 123. 9 SB, 6 CS. A 10/5 player. Not 10th round material, even at middle infield. 

Desirable: Mariano Rivera, 125. Rivera's K/9 rebounded to 8.80, BB/9 second lowest (1.17) of his career. 

 


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