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Sign Of A Home Run Breakout

In 2009 Jose Bautista hit 10 home runs over 125 plate appearances in September and October, which we now know was a sign of things to come.  Let's find late-drafted players who smacked 6+ home runs in a month in 2010, suggesting at least the possibility of a 30 home run season.  Rather than try to tackle every 30-day slice I'm just going to look at each calendar month, so the methodology here is quick and imperfect.

With some of these guys, it's all about playing time.  If Napoli, Scott, Willingham, Quentin, or Burrell get 600 ABs, they're probably good for 30 homers.

The name that really jumps out at me is Stanton.  I think this kid will hit 40 home runs in 2011, and he's being drafted in the 13th round.  I'm also intrigued by Encarnacion, who could get a career-high in ABs if Adam Lind sticks at first base.


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