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Inflated HR/Flyball Rates

About nine fantasy-relevant starting pitchers had home run per flyball rates of 13% or greater this year.  Most likely, we can expect these rates to fall in 2011, resulting in fewer home runs allowed if all else is equal.

  • Jorge de la Rosa, 15.8%.  A guy with his groundball rate shouldn't have a 1.11 HR/9.  He'll probably be out of Coors in 2011; that'll help too.  He'll get you Ks, but still needs to trim walks to be a really useful fantasy pitcher.
  • Kevin Correia, 14.8%.  Had sneakily decent peripherals, outside of his walk rate.  He won't be in San Diego in 2011, however.  Correia doesn't need to be drafted in mixed leagues, but you might want to monitor him.
  • Manny Parra, 14.8%.  His career HR/flyball and BABIP are both pretty high, and it's been over 450 innings now.  He's something of a poor man's De La Rosa.
  • Josh Beckett, 14.2%.  Burned by BABIP and HR/flyball, he's a sleeper if his control returns in 2011 and he stays healthy.
  • Javier Vazquez, 14.0%.  He didn't have the typical Vazquez velocity or strong peripherals this time.  Worth speculating on, but only late.
  • James Shields, 13.8%.  Strong K/BB, but burned by BABIP and HR/flyball.  I'd love to see him in the NL.
  • Mike Leake, 13.2%.  Gets grounders, so he shouldn't be homer-prone.  His peripherals need some work but he did skip the minors.
  • Derek Lowe, 13.1%.  He and Tim Hudson were the league's top groundballers, yet their HR rates were higher than they should have been.  Lowe has his uses at the back end of a mixed league rotation and was really sharp in the second half.
  • Tim Hudson, 13.1%.  This might be countered by a rising BABIP.  I can see a sub-4.00 ERA in 2011, but his value is limited by his lack of Ks.

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