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Ranking American League Offenses

11:49pm: My apologies for screwing up the Angels' projection - it should be 5.071 runs per game, eighth in the league.  The figures below are now correct.

10:38am: Over at MLB Trade Rumors, I've been analyzing each team's offseason.  Part of the process includes plugging the team's projected batting order into Baseball Musings's lineup analysis tool using CHONE projections.  I've just finished the American League teams.

The runs per game figures cranked out by these tools reflect only each team's Opening Day lineup, so perfect health is assumed.  Obviously that's not realistic, so the actual runs per game figures will be lower in 2010.  But if we operate under the assumption that it's all relative, we can rank the AL offenses based on these projections.

  1. Yankees - 5.826 runs per game
  2. Red Sox - 5.371
  3. Rays - 5.273
  4. Twins - 5.250
  5. Orioles - 5.242
  6. Rangers - 5.181
  7. Indians - 5.178
  8. Angels - 5.071 
  9. White Sox - 4.826
  10. Tigers - 4.719
  11. Blue Jays - 4.656
  12. Mariners - 4.559
  13. Royals - 4.536
  14. Athletics - 4.532

A few thoughts:

  • The biggest change goes to the Angels, who are projected to drop six spots.  The Blue Jays and A's are also in for big dropoffs.  The Angels lost Chone Figgins' .395 OBP from the lineup, but CHONE also thinks most of their regulars will experience regression.  If you were planning to draft Angels starters with the expectation that they'll get extra run support, you might want to reconsider.  Joe Saunders won't get an MLB-best 6.5 runs scored per game again.
  • The Orioles and Rays, on the other hand, are looking improved.  Maybe that means a small boost for Baltimore's Brian Matusz.  On the Rays' side, the entire rotation is draft-worthy (James Shields, Matt Garza, Jeff Niemann, David Price, and Wade Davis).


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