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Overhyped Sleepers Can Still Provide Profit

Athletics pitcher Brett Anderson is a pitcher "you'll pay too much to roster in 2010," writes Erich Smith of Fantasy Hurler.  Smith's reasonable logic is that by March the "sleeper" hype on Anderson will cause him to be drafted early enough where solid value is unlikely.  A further discussion in the comments section of the post clarifies that the hype has not yet fully arrived on Anderson, but he could reach a 10th-round average draft position by March.

This post is not to debate Anderson's value specifically, though I am projecting a 3.75 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, and 167 strikeouts in 185 innings for a $16.26 value.  That'd put him in the ballpark of the projected fantasy value of Clayton Kershaw, Chad Billingsley, Jered Weaver, Josh Johnson, Ubaldo Jimenez, Matt Garza, A.J. Burnett, and Roy Oswalt.

My suggestion is that players often provide profit despite the hype.  From March 2009 fantasy drafts, consider Matt Kemp (4th round), Mike Napoli (14th round), Joey Votto (7th round), Nelson Cruz (11th round), Jayson Werth (12th round), Adam Jones (16th round), Javier Vazquez (12th round), Zack Greinke (13th round), Scott Baker (19th round), and Josh Johnson (13th round).  Tim Lincecum, drafted around the 10th before the '08 season, also comes to mind.

Yes, I cherry-picked those, and you could easily point to guys like Chris Davis and Matt Wieters who went way, way too early and did not pay off at all.  Sometimes the hype machine does go overboard - in hindsight, the 6th round for Davis was absurd.  But the 10th or 11th round for Anderson is perfectly reasonable.  You could make a legitimate case for taking him over John Lackey and Jair Jurrjens in a similar spot. 

Certain players like Anderson, Tommy Hanson, and Carlos Gonzalez will be on every sleeper list this fantasy season, mine included.  This may push their average draft position lower than you'd like, but I sure don't regret having Cruz and Werth on a bunch of my teams last year. 


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