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2010 CHONE Projections - Power Sources

The free 2010 CHONE projections are out, and they're a great way for fantasy geeks to pass the time in January.  In my opinion it's too early to be mock-drafting - the results you'll get are not meaningful because the "sleepers" and supposedly undervalued players are not yet common knowledge.  Once the magazines and major websites hammer home their favorites, those players will move up in draft position (Carlos Gonzalez, for example).

With that, we'll dig into CHONE's more interesting sources of power.  Since playing time is difficult to estimate, we'll look at projected HRs per 600 PAs.  Plenty of "Quad A" types here, but sometimes those guys do get chances.

  • Jay Bruce - 34 HRs per 600 PAs.  No big surprise, as Bruce hit 22 HR in 387 PAs last year.  He broke his wrist in July but came back strong in the season's final weeks.  The one concern is his AVG, but CHONE predicts it'll jump way up to .283.  Bruce is currently being drafted in the 11th round; he was a 9th-rounder last spring.  I'd like to see him slip further.
  • Mike Hessman - 33.  He'll be 32 in March, and he had a lousy 2009 in Triple A.  But he slugged .602 at that level the year prior.  Hessman signed with the Mets, who could provide a path to the bigs even if they re-sign Carlos Delgado.
  • Shelley Duncan - 31.  Duncan killed at Triple A in '09 - .277/.370/.546.  Who knows, he could sneak into the Indians' first base or left field jobs.
  • Chris Davis - 29.  In hindsight, Davis in the sixth round last spring was a horribly risky move.  He didn't get on base, didn't hit lefties, and whiffed constantly.  It's not prudent to read too much into his strong September.  Playing time will be harder to come by, and Davis has only slipped to the 12th round.  If he drops another six rounds I'm interested, though we'll have to see who the Rangers add for 1B/DH roles.
  • Wladimir Balentien - 29.  The Reds' left field gig is unsettled, so we should keep an eye on Balentien.
  • Brandon Wood - 26.  If he can get past Maicer Izturis, Wood could finally become the Angels' regular third baseman in 2010.  He might struggle to hit .250, but the power remains.
  • Ryan Raburn - 25.  He mashed 16 HRs in 291 PAs in '09, and stands to gain PT in '10.  Only concern is that he got to face lefties 54% of the time.
  • Randy Ruiz - 25.  Crushed 10 HR in 130 PAs; slugged .584 at Triple A.  The Jays have nothing to lose by sticking the 32-year-old at DH.

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