July 2009

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Mailbag: Trades, #1 Waiver, Wieters, Buchholz

Let's dig through the ol' mailbag:

How do I deal with bogus trades? I'm in a 10 player head to head league, and two teams just hooked up for a trade: Geovany Soto and Brian Roberts were traded for Joe Mauer and Orlando Hudson (worst trade ever?). The same guy who gave up Mauer and Hudson has been trying to get Kevin Youkilis from me, offering me things like Chipper Jones for Youkilis and Joe Nathan. How do I deal with B.S. like this? - John

I don't understand why this trade would be considered bogus.  Is there evidence of corruption?  I don't agree with your implication that anyone sending Mauer and Hudson for Soto and Roberts isn't on the up-and-up.  It sounds like sour grapes on your part because you couldn't get a deal done.  Maybe his Chipper offer was just an opening salvo, in those talks.

In my league we have 10 teams...for the most part everyone seems to be willing to give the commissioner all info on offers they have received and all the players they covet.  The commissioner also seems to help team owners out in trade matters, for instance maybe changing their mind and helping them with a counter offer.  Advice is one thing but at what point is a commissioner over stepping his bounds when he is an owner as well? - Steve

As long as the owners are giving up this information because they want his opinion, and not because he demanded it as the commissioner, I don't see a problem.  It seems odd for the commissioner to stick his nose into other people's trades.  But if he's smooth enough to get all that info, more power to him.  As a Yahoo commissioner, I am not privy to anyone's trade offers unless they tell me.  If with other services the commissioner sees everything, that would be a problem.

I'm #1 in waiver priority for my Yahoo! H2H league. Is there anybody out there who may not be in the Yahoo! player universe worth waiting to use this lofty position? - Jeff K.

No one comes to mind.  I am not going to say Stephen Strasburg.  The obvious stud rookies like Tommy Hanson and Matt Wieters have already gotten the call.  If you're going to savor that #1 waiver spot, I suppose you can camp out in the hope that someone makes a bad drop.

Do you think that Ricky Romero will continue to do well even with interleague play over with? Do you think he should be a must own player? - Chad

Yes, he's a must-own player.  I'd set my expectations at an ERA below 4.00 from here on out rather than below 3.00.  But his peripherals are decent and he gets a lot of groundballs.

What do I do with Matt Wieters? He hasn't really been all that good yet. Should I trade him while he's got some value or hold on to him? - Brandon

I would hang on to him in the hopes that he has a big or at least decent second half.  I doubt the trade return would be impressive in a non-keeper league.  In his one full month (June), Wieters wasn't that bad (.257-2-7-7-0).

What's the deal with Mike Napoli, he's batting around .300 and has around 10 HR. Weren't we predicting more HR and a lower AVG? How will Napoli play in the second half? - Max

Napoli has actually been better-than-expected with the bat, with his improved contact rate contributing to his .290 AVG.  I expected 23 HR from Napoli in 367 ABs.  Just doubling his stats he's on pace for 20 HR in about 372 ABs.  I'd expect the AVG to come down a touch, and Napoli owners have to be slightly disappointed with the Jeff Mathis job-share.  But ESPN still ranks Napoli 7th among catchers this year for fantasy value.

When will Clay Buchholz rejoin the Bosox? Will he contribute this season? - Alan

Buchholz, 25 in August, owns a 2.05 ERA in 87.6 Triple A innings.  He has a 3.3 K/BB as well.  I think he can get big league hitters out, but the Red Sox don't have a rotation spot for him currently.  There are six pitchers ahead of him: Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, Tim Wakefield, Brad Penny, John Smoltz, and the injured Daisuke Matsuzaka.  Dice-K is dealing with a shoulder injury and has no timetable for return.  Smoltz is always a risk for re-injury, and Penny is a trade/injury candidate.  Penny had a strong June, though, and the Sox might not want to risk their depth.  My suggestion is to hold Buchholz for the next four weeks while gathering more info about Dice-K, Penny, and Smoltz.  But don't be so married to the idea of Buchholz taking the AL by storm that you're afraid to cut him for someone with more certainty and immediate value.

Full Story |  Comments (6) | Categories: Mailbag

BABIP, Anyone?

Time to take a look at our BABIP leaders and trailers, with a minimum of 40 IP.  Here are those benefitting from low BABIPs:

Edinson Volquez 0.224 1.47 0.163 4.35 1.33
Luke Hochevar 0.224 1.06 0.171 4.96 1.21
Chris Carpenter 0.230 5.30 0.115 2.42 0.82
Dan Haren 0.232 7.53 0.123 2.19 0.81
Garrett Olson 0.236 1.86 0.222 4.81 1.23
Scott Feldman 0.240 1.65 0.151 4.09 1.18
Matt Garza 0.242 2.10 0.148 3.45 1.18
Yovani Gallardo 0.244 2.48 0.149 2.75 1.15
Sean West 0.245 1.24 0.158 4.06 1.38
Scott Richmond 0.246 2.37 0.211 3.69 1.20
John Maine 0.246 1.24 0.140 4.52 1.38
J.A. Happ 0.247 1.61 0.149 3.00 1.23
Johnny Cueto 0.251 2.44 0.154 2.69 1.12
CC Sabathia 0.252 2.52 0.110 3.55 1.09
Edwin Jackson 0.255 2.90 0.122 2.49 1.04
Shairon Martis 0.256 0.87 0.178 5.25 1.42
Chris Jakubauskas 0.258 1.53 0.196 5.46 1.28
Brian Tallet 0.258 1.58 0.157 4.47 1.33
Jered Weaver 0.258 2.61 0.149 3.10 1.13
Joe Saunders 0.259 1.74 0.185 4.24 1.30

Those with low K/BB ratios are possible sell candidates. 

Now those with high BABIPs, which figure to come down:

Billy Buckner 0.376 2.20 0.262 8.63 1.77
Cole Hamels 0.376 4.28 0.178 4.98 1.47
John Lackey 0.375 2.80 0.144 5.06 1.52
Manny Parra 0.365 1.34 0.191 7.52 1.92
Scott Olsen 0.363 2.00 0.250 6.56 1.75
Sidney Ponson 0.362 1.41 0.141 7.27 1.73
Ricky Nolasco 0.355 3.89 0.201 5.99 1.45
Justin Masterson 0.353 2.57 0.128 4.28 1.39
Felipe Paulino 0.353 2.71 0.176 5.51 1.54
Todd Wellemeyer 0.352 1.38 0.163 5.68 1.70
Kevin Slowey 0.351 4.73 0.184 4.41 1.40
Chan Ho Park 0.348 1.83 0.150 6.04 1.60
Scott Kazmir 0.348 1.33 0.182 7.28 1.86
Derek Holland 0.348 2.44 0.217 6.20 1.60
Rich Hill 0.347 1.37 0.181 7.08 1.80
Jorge De La Rosa 0.346 2.29 0.171 5.64 1.49
Carl Pavano 0.346 3.78 0.167 5.56 1.41
Adam Eaton 0.343 1.47 0.259 8.56 1.83
Jon Lester 0.340 3.80 0.144 4.35 1.31

Hamels, Lackey, and Nolasco stand as buy-low candidates, if it's not too late.  Paulino and Slowey are intriguing as well.

Full Story |  Comments (0) | Categories: BABIP, Anyone?

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