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Josh Outman Examined

Let's talk about Josh Outman, who ranks 7th in the AL with a 3.06 ERA (using 40 IP to qualify).  Outman's 1.19 WHIP ranks 14th.   Is he for real, or at least worth picking up?  More stats...

47 IP
8 GS
5.63 IP/start
3.06 ERA
4.72 xFIP
1.19 WHIP
1.44 Expected WHIP
7.66 K/9
4.02 BB/9
1.90 K/BB
6.70 H/9
.227 BABIP vs. .316 team BABIP
1.15 HR/9
11.8% HR/flyball rate
35.3% Groundball rate
2 wins
2.6 Expected Wins

Basically we are looking at a guy who's pitched more like a 4.72 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP.  It'd be pretty risky to expect otherwise.  Outman still needs to take a big step forward in control, and as a flyball pitcher he'll continue to allow HRs.  His super-low BABIP is unsustainable.

Scouting-wise, Outman is a 24 year-old southpaw who came to Oakland in last year's Joe Blanton trade.  He has only two Triple A starts under his belt.  Some like him as a reliever, as his fastball plays up to the mid-90s.  Baseball America notes decent secondary pitches and a deceptive delivery.  Who knows, maybe the delivery explains some of the BABIP.

I would not add Outman in a 12-team mixed league.  It seems that he is getting by mainly on not allowing hits and that is not a reliable formula for success.

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