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« May Pitching Leaders | Main | Picks For Thursday »
Josh Outman Examined
Let's talk about Josh Outman, who ranks 7th in the AL with a 3.06 ERA (using 40 IP to qualify). Outman's 1.19 WHIP ranks 14th. Is he for real, or at least worth picking up? More stats...
47 IP
8 GS
5.63 IP/start
3.06 ERA
4.72 xFIP
1.19 WHIP
1.44 Expected WHIP
7.66 K/9
4.02 BB/9
1.90 K/BB
6.70 H/9
.227 BABIP vs. .316 team BABIP
1.15 HR/9
11.8% HR/flyball rate
35.3% Groundball rate
2 wins
2.6 Expected Wins
Basically we are looking at a guy who's pitched more like a 4.72 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP. It'd be pretty risky to expect otherwise. Outman still needs to take a big step forward in control, and as a flyball pitcher he'll continue to allow HRs. His super-low BABIP is unsustainable.
Scouting-wise, Outman is a 24 year-old southpaw who came to Oakland in last year's Joe Blanton trade. He has only two Triple A starts under his belt. Some like him as a reliever, as his fastball plays up to the mid-90s. Baseball America notes decent secondary pitches and a deceptive delivery. Who knows, maybe the delivery explains some of the BABIP.
I would not add Outman in a 12-team mixed league. It seems that he is getting by mainly on not allowing hits and that is not a reliable formula for success.
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