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HR/Flyball Rate

From The Hardball Times:

Research has shown that about 11% to 12% of outfield flies are hit for home runs. For pitchers, significant variations from 11% are probably the result of "luck," but for hitters the HR/flyball stat is more indicative of a true skill (hitting the ball hard!).

OK so then who's been victimized by an unlucky HR/flyball rate?  Check out the leaderboard:

  1. Brett Myers - 28.7%
  2. Randy Johnson - 27.6%
  3. Cole Hamels - 26.6%
  4. Scott Baker - 23.0%
  5. Rich Harden - 22.4%
  6. Braden Looper - 22.0%
  7. Chris Volstad - 20.8%
  8. Roy Oswalt - 20.7%
  9. Jeff Suppan - 19.0%
  10. Armando Galarraga - 18.9%
  11. Jon Lester - 18.8%
  12. Joe Blanton - 18.8%
  13. Bronson Arroyo - 17.8%
  14. Dave Bush - 17.0%
  15. Livan Hernandez - 16.9%
  16. Francisco Liriano - 16.8%
  17. John Lannan - 16.6%
  18. Trevor Cahill - 16.6%
  19. Doug Davis - 16.5%
  20. Ross Ohlendorf - 16.4%

Cross-checking this list with our BABIP leaders, we find that Lester has been extremely unlucky.  Alex Speier at WEEI has a nice analysis of his early struggles.  Johnson and Blanton also appear on both lists.


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