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By Tim Dierkes [May 19, 2009 at 11:16am CST]
Baseball Prospectus has a stat called Expected Wins. The definition:
Expected win record for the pitcher, based on how often pitchers with the same innings pitched and runs allowed earned a win or loss historically (this differs from how it was computed, which was a more complicated, theoretical calculation).
Let's look at the pitchers whose expected win totals deviate the most from their actual win totals. The following pitchers have more wins than they deserve:
- Roy Halladay is 8-1, should be 5-3. (In this case I am skeptical of the expected wins stat; Doc has averaged 7.56 innings per start and may deserve all 8).
- Kevin Slowey is 5-1, should be 3-2.
- Scott Kazmir is 4-3, should be 2-2.
- Brian Bass - 2-1, should be 0-0.
- Ross Ohlendorf - is 5-3, should be 3-2.
- Derek Lowe is 5-2, should be 3-3.
- Shairon Martis is 5-0, should be 3-2.
- Joel Pineiro - is 4-3, should be 2-3.
- Bronson Arroyo - 5-3, should be 3-3.
- Jason Marquis - is 5-3, should be 3-3.
- Braden Looper is 4-2, should be 2-2.
OK so then who is getting the shaft?
- Jorge De La Rosa is 0-3, should be 2-2.
- Randy Wolf is 2-1, should be 4-2.
- Roy Oswalt is 1-2, should be 3-3.
- Dan Haren is 3-4, should be 5-1.
- Cliff Lee is 2-5, should be 4-2.
- Ian Snell is 1-5, should be 3-3.
- Barry Zito is 1-3, should be 3-2.
- Scott Olsen is 1-4, should be 3-3.
- Josh Geer is 0-1, should be 2-2.
The five starters who have exactly as many wins as expected: Matt Cain (4), Bartolo Colon (2), Jordan Zimmermann (2), Gil Meche (2), and Andy Sonnanstine (2). By the way, the 7-1 Zack Greinke should probably be 6-1 (technically, 5.8 and 0.5).