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Expected Wins

Baseball Prospectus has a stat called Expected Wins.  The definition:

Expected win record for the pitcher, based on how often pitchers with the same innings pitched and runs allowed earned a win or loss historically (this differs from how it was computed, which was a more complicated, theoretical calculation).

Let's look at the pitchers whose expected win totals deviate the most from their actual win totals.  The following pitchers have more wins than they deserve:

  • Roy Halladay is 8-1, should be 5-3.  (In this case I am skeptical of the expected wins stat; Doc has averaged 7.56 innings per start and may deserve all 8).
  • Kevin Slowey is 5-1, should be 3-2.
  • Scott Kazmir is 4-3, should be 2-2.
  • Brian Bass - 2-1, should be 0-0.
  • Ross Ohlendorf - is 5-3, should be 3-2.
  • Derek Lowe is 5-2, should be 3-3.
  • Shairon Martis is 5-0, should be 3-2.
  • Joel Pineiro - is 4-3, should be 2-3.
  • Bronson Arroyo - 5-3, should be 3-3.
  • Jason Marquis - is 5-3, should be 3-3.
  • Braden Looper is 4-2, should be 2-2.

OK so then who is getting the shaft?

  • Jorge De La Rosa is 0-3, should be 2-2.
  • Randy Wolf is 2-1, should be 4-2.
  • Roy Oswalt is 1-2, should be 3-3.
  • Dan Haren is 3-4, should be 5-1.
  • Cliff Lee is 2-5, should be 4-2.
  • Ian Snell is 1-5, should be 3-3.
  • Barry Zito is 1-3, should be 3-2.
  • Scott Olsen is 1-4, should be 3-3.
  • Josh Geer is 0-1, should be 2-2.

The five starters who have exactly as many wins as expected: Matt Cain (4), Bartolo Colon (2), Jordan Zimmermann (2), Gil Meche (2), and Andy Sonnanstine (2).  By the way, the 7-1 Zack Greinke should probably be 6-1 (technically, 5.8 and 0.5).


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