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Expected WHIP

WHIP can be a tricky category in fantasy baseball, because it can be so deceiving.  Look at Kevin Slowey.  He has a 1.39 WHIP right now - not helpful.  But we know Slowey has a .361 BABIP, which is expected to come down toward the Twins' team BABIP of .303.  So can we determine what Slowey's WHIP would be, if he had the Twins' .303 BABIP instead?  That is what I set out to find with Expected WHIP (disclaimer: this stat might already exist somewhere, I haven't checked).

We know the formula for BABIP.  So if we insert the team's BABIP (calculated as 1 minus defensive efficiency) and solve for hits, we get the "expected hits" the pitcher should have allowed. Combine that with his actual walks and divide by innings pitched and we have Expected WHIP (eWHIP from here on out).  By the way, the Brewers lead baseball with a .275 team BABIP.  Thank your defenders, Yovani Gallardo, Dave Bush, and most of the bullpen.

Running the numbers on Slowey, we find that with his team's .303 BABIP and his own incredible control, his eWHIP is 1.21.  Pretty big difference.  Here's the hard-luck leaderboard:

NAME BABIP Team H eHits WHIP eWHIP Diff
Ricky Nolasco 0.395 0.320 66 56 1.81 1.57 -0.24
Felipe Paulino 0.398 0.326 43 36 1.97 1.73 -0.24
Kevin Slowey 0.361 0.303 73 63 1.39 1.21 -0.18
Jon Lester 0.384 0.322 68 59 1.61 1.44 -0.17
Todd Wellemeyer 0.347 0.297 63 54 1.67 1.51 -0.16
Manny Parra 0.329 0.275 51 44 1.71 1.56 -0.15
Scott Olsen 0.366 0.324 60 54 1.90 1.76 -0.15
Tim Lincecum 0.376 0.312 54 46 1.24 1.10 -0.14
Carl Pavano 0.373 0.324 62 55 1.50 1.36 -0.14
Cole Hamels 0.357 0.304 50 44 1.39 1.26 -0.14
Andy Sonnanstine 0.352 0.314 63 57 1.66 1.53 -0.13
Shane Loux 0.355 0.315 52 47 1.72 1.59 -0.13
Joe Blanton 0.345 0.304 57 52 1.67 1.55 -0.12
Matt Harrison 0.330 0.292 68 61 1.54 1.41 -0.12
Scott Kazmir 0.358 0.314 60 54 1.95 1.83 -0.12
Jamie Moyer 0.344 0.304 68 62 1.78 1.65 -0.12
Aaron Harang 0.325 0.290 69 62 1.31 1.20 -0.10
Randy Johnson 0.352 0.312 53 48 1.57 1.46 -0.10
Jason Hammel 0.364 0.331 51 47 1.69 1.59 -0.10

What a difference of handful of hits makes.  Turns out Slowey, Pavano, Hamels, and Harang should be in much better shape.

Now for the flip side...whose WHIP looks much better than it should be?

NAME BABIP Team H eHits WHIP eWHIP Diff
Matt Palmer 0.211 0.315 28 39 1.18 1.50 0.31
Lance Cormier 0.228 0.314 27 37 1.06 1.35 0.29
Tim Wakefield 0.245 0.322 50 65 1.31 1.56 0.25
Jason Marquis 0.264 0.331 59 73 1.29 1.51 0.23
Chris Volstad 0.239 0.320 50 64 1.13 1.36 0.23
Josh Outman 0.235 0.314 32 41 1.24 1.47 0.23
Joe Saunders 0.249 0.315 53 66 1.16 1.37 0.22
Matt Garza 0.241 0.314 43 56 1.15 1.37 0.21
Jered Weaver 0.249 0.315 49 61 1.07 1.27 0.20
Edinson Volquez 0.213 0.290 32 42 1.29 1.49 0.20
Shairon Martis 0.27 0.324 52 62 1.36 1.55 0.19
Scott Feldman 0.233 0.292 35 43 1.16 1.34 0.18
John Maine 0.253 0.311 42 51 1.39 1.57 0.18
Aaron Cook 0.28 0.331 51 60 1.44 1.61 0.17
Dan Haren 0.25 0.313 48 58 0.90 1.07 0.16
Brian Tallet 0.236 0.289 44 53 1.27 1.44 0.16
Jair Jurrjens 0.26 0.313 50 60 1.18 1.34 0.16
Doug Davis 0.26 0.313 54 64 1.27 1.43 0.15
Jeremy Guthrie 0.281 0.326 65 74 1.40 1.55 0.15
Derek Lowe 0.267 0.313 52 61 1.18 1.33 0.15
Brian Bannister 0.282 0.324 39 45 1.29 1.43 0.15
Ross Ohlendorf 0.242 0.284 49 57 1.13 1.27 0.14
Mark Buehrle 0.287 0.328 57 65 1.17 1.31 0.14
Barry Zito 0.265 0.312 50 58 1.32 1.46 0.14
Kyle Davies 0.28 0.324 48 55 1.35 1.48 0.14
Kevin Millwood 0.248 0.292 59 68 1.15 1.28 0.14
Koji Uehara 0.286 0.326 50 56 1.20 1.33 0.12
Anthony Reyes 0.294 0.324 40 45 1.64 1.76 0.12
CC Sabathia 0.268 0.305 60 68 1.14 1.26 0.12
Yovani Gallardo 0.231 0.275 42 49 1.07 1.19 0.12
Chris Jakubauskas 0.282 0.309 49 54 1.45 1.57 0.11
Brett Myers 0.267 0.304 59 65 1.34 1.46 0.11
Randy Wolf 0.249 0.286 51 58 1.12 1.23 0.11
Fausto Carmona 0.291 0.324 56 62 1.66 1.77 0.11
Ted Lilly 0.255 0.294 49 55 1.10 1.21 0.11
Trevor Cahill 0.281 0.314 52 57 1.54 1.65 0.11
Johnny Cueto 0.253 0.290 47 53 1.04 1.14 0.11
Dave Bush 0.242 0.275 51 57 1.11 1.21 0.10
Jarrod Washburn 0.275 0.309 47 52 1.21 1.31 0.10
Scott Baker 0.27 0.303 50 55 1.28 1.38 0.10
Rick Porcello 0.261 0.294 42 47 1.25 1.35 0.10
Jeff Niemann 0.285 0.314 51 56 1.53 1.63 0.10
Jonathan Sanchez 0.276 0.312 36 40 1.56 1.66 0.10
Josh Geer 0.268 0.294 42 46 1.22 1.31 0.10
Brett Anderson 0.285 0.314 49 53 1.41 1.51 0.10
Josh Johnson 0.286 0.320 58 64 1.10 1.20 0.10

Might be some sell-high opportunities in here.  Volstad has a 1.13 WHIP, but you know he's pitched more like 1.36.

Your eWHIP leaderboard:

NAME WHIP eWHIP Diff
Zack Greinke 0.91 0.99 0.08
Roy Halladay 1.03 1.02 -0.01
Justin Verlander 1.11 1.04 -0.06
Dan Haren 0.90 1.07 0.16
Johan Santana 1.05 1.09 0.04
Tim Lincecum 1.24 1.10 -0.14
Javier Vazquez 1.14 1.12 -0.03
Zach Duke 1.08 1.12 0.05
Jake Peavy 1.10 1.14 0.04
Johnny Cueto 1.04 1.14 0.11
Chad Billingsley 1.19 1.15 -0.05
Joel Pineiro 1.21 1.18 -0.03
Erik Bedard 1.13 1.18 0.05
Yovani Gallardo 1.07 1.19 0.12
Edwin Jackson 1.10 1.19 0.09
Wandy Rodriguez 1.13 1.19 0.06


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