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Starting Pitcher Rankings

Here are my tentative starting pitcher rankings for 2009 in a 5x5 mixed league with 9 pitchers (categories: ERA, WHIP, W, SV, K).  The tough part here is that adding or subtracting 20-30 innings from the projection makes a big difference.  But, here we go (draft round in parentheses):

  1. Johan Santana - $38.58 (2)
  2. Tim Lincecum  - $33.55 (3)
  3. C.C. Sabathia - $33.38 (3)
  4. Cole Hamels - $30.23 (4)
  5. Jake Peavy - $29.47 (4)
  6. Roy Halladay  - $28.87 (4)
  7. Javier Vazquez  - $27.26 (12)
  8. Dan Haren - $26.32 (5)
  9. Brandon Webb - $25.72 (4)
  10. Josh Beckett - $23.35 (7)
  11. Rich Harden - $23.19 (10)
  12. Chad Billingsley - $22.93 (8)
  13. Ervin Santana - $22.89 (7)
  14. Roy Oswalt - $21.88 (7)
  15. James Shields - $21.01 (7)
  16. Yovani Gallardo - $20.66 (11)
  17. A.J. Burnett - $20.21 (9)
  18. Joba Chamberlain - $19.48 (9)
  19. Scott Kazmir - $17.50 (8)
  20. Brett Myers - $17.34 (13)
  21. Felix Hernandez - $17.27 (8)
  22. Cliff Lee - $17.03 (6)
  23. Matt Cain - $16.53 (11)
  24. John Lackey - $16.16 (8)
  25. Ted Lilly - $16.10 (17)
  26. Francisco Liriano - $16.07 (6)
  27. Derek Lowe - $15.67 (14)
  28. Zack Greinke - $15.03 (13)
  29. Ricky Nolasco - $15.01 (11)
  30. Kenshin Kawakami - $14.87 (27)
  31. Randy Johnson - $13.91 (13)
  32. Daisuke Matsuzaka - $13.79 (9)
  33. Max Scherzer - $13.45 (16)
  34. Kevin Slowey - $13.30 (15)
  35. Jered Weaver - $13.25 (21)
  36. Aaron Harang - $12.76 (14)
  37. Justin Verlander - $12.37 (11)
  38. Edinson Volquez - $12.24 (9)
  39. Adam Wainwright - $11.63 (12)
  40. Ryan Dempster - $11.19 (13)
  41. Erik Bedard - $11.10 (16)
  42. Scott Baker - $10.67 (19)
  43. Gil Meche - $10.59 (23)
  44. John Maine - $10.33 (24)
  45. Carlos Zambrano - $10.30 (10)
  46. John Danks - $9.61 (13)
  47. Matt Garza - $9.17 (15)
  48. Clayton Kershaw - $8.59 (18)
  49. Justin Duchscherer - $8.57 (16)
  50. Johnny Cueto - $8.56 (17)
  51. Andy Sonnanstine - $8.53 (28)
  52. Chris Young - $8.37 (10)
  53. Josh Johnson - $8.35 (13)
  54. Jon Lester - $8.31 (9)
  55. David Bush - $6.57 (28)
  56. Manny Parra - $6.45 (27)
  57. Hiroki Kuroda - $6.44 (24)
  58. Joe Blanton - $6.33 (28)
  59. Bronson Arroyo - $6.03 (28)
  60. Oliver Perez - $5.85 (25)
  61. Andy Pettitte - $5.84 (19)
  62. Mark Buehrle - $5.79 (27)
  63. Jair Jurrjens - $5.17 (16)
  64. John Smoltz - $4.08 (23)
  65. Wandy Rodriguez - $3.85 (26)
  66. Chien-Ming Wang - $3.52 (19)
  67. Jesse Litsch - $3.30 (20)
  68. Clay Buchholz - $2.97 (28)
  69. Jonathan Sanchez - $2.48 (21)
  70. Joe Saunders - $2.48 (15)
  71. Paul Maholm - $2.44 (27)
  72. Kyle Lohse - $2.11 (27)
  73. Randy Wolf - $1.45 (28)
  74. Braden Looper - $1.40 (33)
  75. Ubaldo Jimenez - $1.35 (25)
  76. Gavin Floyd - $1.18 (12)
  77. Jeremy Guthrie - $1.16 (24)
  78. Koji Uehara - $1.09 (26)
  79. Jeremy Bonderman - $0.95 (21)
  80. Mike Pelfrey - $0.57 (18)
  81. Todd Wellemeyer - $0.16 (ND)
  • The following are projected to throw fewer than 160 innings, so you may be able to combine them with a replacement level pickup and get more value from the roster spot: Harden, Chamberlain, Scherzer, Bedard, Duchscherer, Young, Smoltz, Wandy, Buchholz, Sanchez, Uehara, and Bonderman.
  • Vazquez's projection for a 3.57 ERA seems out of whack.  He's the guy whose peripherals also lead forecasters to call for a better ERA than he's capable of.  But, 200 Ks is 200 Ks and this is a 12th round pick.
  • Lee, Volquez, Zambrano, Young, Lester, Dice-K, and Floyd aren't looking like great picks for their draft positions.  Nice value in Myers, Lilly, Lowe, Kawakami, Weaver, Harang, Meche, and Maine
  • Just missed the cut: Purcey, Moyer, Snell, Price, Petit, Wakefield, Campillo, Carmona.


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