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World Baseball Classic Worries

Back on May 10th, 2006, Nate Silver of Baseball Prospectus did a study comparing April ERAs to PECOTA projected ERAs for pitchers who participated in the World Baseball Classic.  He found that 19 of the 26 starters underperformed their projection.  There was definitely enough data to say that there was an overall negative effect for pitchers.

Without embarking on a massive injury study, I think it's safe to say that fantasy baseball players would prefer their pitchers don't participate in the WBC.  As far as I can tell, the following 27 pitchers have positive projected fantasy value and are scheduled to pitch in the WBC.  They're ranked by projected fantasy value.

  1. Jake Peavy
  2. Javier Vazquez
  3. Joe Nathan
  4. Roy Oswalt
  5. Francisco Rodriguez
  6. Jose Valverde
  7. Felix Hernandez
  8. Joakim Soria
  9. Jonathan Broxton
  10. Brian Fuentes
  11. Ted Lilly
  12. Daisuke Matsuzaka
  13. Justin Verlander
  14. Edinson Volquez
  15. Carlos Marmol
  16. B.J. Ryan
  17. Chad Qualls
  18. Matt Garza
  19. Oliver Perez
  20. Matt Lindstrom
  21. Wandy Rodriguez
  22. Jonathan Sanchez
  23. J.J. Putz
  24. Ubaldo Jimenez
  25. Jeremy Guthrie
  26. Scot Shields
  27. George Sherrill

Other WBC pitchers who you may end up drafting: Rafael Perez, Fernando Rodney, Ian Snell, Edwar Ramirez, Ramon Ramirez, Jorge Campillo, Pedro Martinez, Jose Arredondo, Matt Thornton, Armando Galarraga, Manny Corpas, and Hideki Okajima.

Obviously you can't avoid all WBC pitchers; 11 closers are planning to pitch in the tournament.  It's just additional info you may use to influence a decision or two if you're on the fence about a guy.


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