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Your #1 Bust

We received 129 comments on the sleeper post, probably a record for this site.  Tons of great sleepers were named, and we'll look more closely at many of them.

Today the question to the readers: who is your #1 bust for 2009?  Again we define the term loosely: simply a player who is greatly overvalued in fantasy baseball drafts.  A few caveats though.  Fantasy bust does not necessarily mean real life bust, especially since most fantasy leagues don't consider the player's salary, OBP, or defense.  Furthermore, a bust for the purposes of our discussion might be a player who posts a valuable fantasy season in 2009 but not nearly valuable enough to justify his draft position.

My #1 bust, Adrian Gonzalez, falls into the last category.  His numbers in 2008: .279-36-119-103-0.  Fantasy players are drafting Gonzalez as if he's likely to repeat - his average draft position is 34.73, the late third round.  He's being chosen eighth among first basemen.

Say Gonzalez regresses a touch but still has a nice season: .280-30-100-90-0.  That's reasonable to me.  But that is not even close to third-round material.  Derrek Lee, Chris Davis, and Joey Votto are three 1Bs who can post similar numbers at much later draft positions.  Gonzalez is a three-category player at a non-scarce position.  And if Brian Giles is traded or his OBP comes back down to Earth, Gonzalez will lose RBI opportunities.

Let's open up the floor to the readers.  Who is your #1 bust (you only get one) for 2009, and why?


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