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The 3400 Club: 2007 Members

It was interesting to learn that almost the exact same number of pitchers cross the 3400 pitches thrown barrier each year.  In 2008, the group had 19 members.  In 2007, 19 pitchers also passed the benchmark.  Here they are:

  1. C.C. Sabathia - 3892
  2. Daisuke Matsuzaka - 3865
  3. Carlos Zambrano - 3774
  4. Jeff Francis - 3771
  5. Dan Haren - 3635
  6. Brandon Webb - 3623
  7. Jake Peavy - 3610
  8. Scott Kazmir - 3609
  9. Aaron Harang - 3590
  10. Gil Meche - 3578
  11. Doug Davis - 3574
  12. Daniel Cabrera - 3563
  13. John Lackey - 3495
  14. Dontrelle Willis - 3491
  15. Andy Pettitte - 3487
  16. Joe Blanton - 3483
  17. Javier Vazquez - 3463
  18. Bronson Arroyo - 3431
  19. Barry Zito - 3411

Let's take Davis out of the mix since he was diagnosed with thyroid cancer the following year.  That leaves 18 pitchers in this group.  10 of the 18 had serious injuries in 2008.  Specifically I'm referring to Dice-K, Zambrano, Francis, Peavy, Kazmir, Harang, Cabrera, Lackey, Willis, and Pettitte.

The eight who emerged unscathed: Sabathia, Haren, Webb, Meche, Blanton, Vazquez, Arroyo, and Zito.  Arroyo did deal with forearm cramps at one point though.  Also keep in mind that sometimes these 3400 pitch seasons often result in issues or even surgery two years later.

There is reason to believe the 2007 class was an anomaly though.  2005 and 2006 data indicated following-year injury rates of 15-25%.

A dozen pitchers tossed 6800 or more pitches across 2007-08:

  1. C.C. Sabathia - 7804
  2. Gil Meche - 7133
  3. Joe Blanton - 7030
  4. Brandon Webb - 6980
  5. Dan Haren - 6974
  6. Matt Cain - 6957
  7. Johan Santana - 6943
  8. Javier Vazquez - 6925
  9. Carlos Zambrano - 6895
  10. Roy Halladay - 6890
  11. Justin Verlander - 6883
  12. Bronson Arroyo - 6867

I like Sabathia as much as the next guy...but he was three pitches away from being the MLB leader in pitches thrown in each of the last two seasons.  At some point pitching far more than any other human has to take a toll.

So what is the application for fantasy baseball?  So many top pitchers cross the 3400 barrier that you can't downgrade all of them.  And the year-after injury rate can vary wildly.  At the end of the day this info may just be a tipping point in a certain decision - maybe now you take a Ted Lilly over a Gil Meche.


Full Story |  Comments (7) | Categories: Injuries


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