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Last Year's Starters: First 7 Rounds

By Tim Dierkes [January 20, 2009 at 10:33am CST]

In general I am not a fan of taking starting pitching within the first seven rounds of a draft. In 2008, 16 starters were chosen within the first 84 picks on average (draft round in parentheses):

Johan Santana (2)
Jake Peavy (2)
Brandon Webb (4)
Erik Bedard (4)
Josh Beckett (5)
C.C. Sabathia (5)
Cole Hamels (5)
Justin Verlander (5)
John Lackey (6)
Dan Haren (6)
Carlos Zambrano (6)
Aaron Harang (6)
Scott Kazmir (7)
Roy Oswalt (7)
John Smoltz (7)
Felix Hernandez (7)

Using ESPN's Player Rater, 6 of these 16 were ranked within the top 20 starters. The majority of pitchers chosen in this group did not meet expectations. On the other hand, there were reasons to avoid Bedard, Beckett, and Verlander coming in and the rest chosen within the first five rounds panned out. I took Haren in one draft; he profiled as a very safe pitcher. Then again, I would've said the same about Lackey and Harang.

Taking a pitcher early can certainly work out, but is it necessary? 14 of ESPN's top 20 starters were NOT drafted within the first seven rounds.

Full Story | Comments (15) | Categories: Starters