January 2009

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First Base Rankings

Using 20 games for eligibility, here are our tentative rankings for first basemen.  These are based on a standard 12 team 5x5 mixed league (categories: AVG, HR, RBI, R, SB).  Adam Dunn (17 games played) and Pablo Sandoval (17 games) did not make the cut.  Dunn would be worth $11.92, Sandoval not quite draftable at this position.  Draft round is in parentheses.

  1. Albert Pujols - $32.23 (1)
  2. Ryan Howard - $25.27 (1)
  3. Miguel Cabrera - $24.79 (1)
  4. Mark Teixeira - $19.94 (2)
  5. Lance Berkman - $19.90 (2)
  6. Prince Fielder - $18.34 (3)
  7. Chris Davis - $16.49 (6)
  8. Joey Votto - $14.51 (7)
  9. Justin Morneau - $14.39 (2)
  10. Adrian Gonzalez - $11.98 (3)
  11. Kevin Youkilis - $11.41 (4)
  12. Derrek Lee - $10.66 (7)
  13. Garrett Atkins - $10.25 (7)
  14. Carlos Delgado - $9.46 (9)
  15. Carlos Pena - $9.17 (6)
  16. Aubrey Huff - $7.02 (8)
  17. Carlos Guillen - $5.65 (21)
  18. Paul Konerko - $5.63 (16)
  19. Conor Jackson - $5.36 (18)
  20. Mike Jacobs - $4.97 (21)
  21. Adam LaRoche - $4.18 (23)
  22. James Loney - $2.92 (9)
  23. Jorge Cantu - $2.01 (13)
  24. Casey Kotchman - $1.66 (22)
  25. Jason Giambi - $1.58 (17)
  26. Hank Blalock - $1.40 (18)
  27. Billy Butler - $1.33 (27)
  28. Nick Swisher - $0.67 (17)

Aside from Pujols, you will probably not see me take a 1B early.  As you know, I consider Davis and Votto pretty good bargains (yes, the hype is mounting).  Lee are Atkins are Plan B if I don't get Davis or Votto.  Jackson and Butler have upside for your CI slot.  Huff and LaRoche are in contract years.

Morneau, Gonzalez, Youkilis, Pena, and Huff don't do much for me where they are being drafted.  And I really don't get what people see in Loney so early; I have him at .293-13-82-67-6 in 547 ABs.  In general, though, I can see why people are reaching for 1Bs.


Full Story |  Comments (27) | Categories: First Basemen

SGPs For Offense

Warning: this post deals with Art McGee's method of creating dollar values in fantasy baseball, which uses Standings Gain Points (SGPs).  If that is foreign to you, go buy Art's book ($18 well spent).

I am really excited, in a nerdy way, now that RotoAuthority readers have kindly sent in league data.  I know some of you create your own dollar values and need accurate SGPs.  Well, we've got 'em, based on results from a dozen leagues played in 2008.  I know it's not a massive sample but it's more than adequate.  These numbers apply to a 12-team mixed league with 14 hitters (C, C, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, CI, MI, OF, OF, OF, OF, OF, DH) and 9 pitchers.

  • AVG: 0.00179561
  • HR: 8.2586
  • RBI: 22.1011
  • R: 21.1327
  • SB: 8.6917
  • Team hits: 2091.3479
  • Team ABs: 7522.7167

If you have projections, this should be enough for you to create dollar values for your hitters (you'll need the book to walk you through it).  But basically these numbers are what was needed to gain one additional standings point.  About 8 homers, 22 RBIs, etc.


Full Story |  Comments (9) | Categories:

Analyzing The RotoAuthority Reader Mock Draft

A RotoAuthority reader held a mock draft last night.  Unfortunately two of the entrants copped out and predrafted/autoselected.  That skews the results, but I'll take a look at some other picks that stand out.  You can view the results here.

  • Alfonso Soriano - Round 3, Pick 2.  He's had his injury issues with the Cubs but he's still a top power/speed threat.
  • Geovany Soto - R5, P1.  A run on catchers had begun, but this is pretty early for Soto.  Ryan Doumit and Mike Napoli went similarly early (before the 9th).
  • Cole Hamels - R5, P3.  Good value here.
  • Stephen Drew - R5, P12. He'd have to have a monster year for this to be justified.
  • Robinson Cano - R6, P2.  Ditto.
  • Chris Davis - R6, P8.  Nice to get him this late.
  • Joba Chamberlain - R10, P5.  Sign me up.
  • Ted Lilly, Aaron Harang - R15.  Quality starters at a late round.  Same goes for Gil Meche in the 21st.


Full Story |  Comments (12) | Categories:

Razzball Predicts Pitching Injuries

Very cool post at Razzball, attempting to find predictors of pitching injuries.  They learned that high pitch volume doesn't do much to predict injuries, but a high percentage of breaking pitches thrown does.


Full Story |  Comments (3) | Categories: Injuries

Another Data Request

The data sent in so far has been a huge help.  I am looking for another piece of data, if you were in a 12-team regular 5x5 mixed league in 2008 with 14 hitters and 9 pitchers.  One thing I noticed was that in 2008 the HR was worth a bit more than the SB, which wasn't the case previously.

Here's what I'm looking for now: the average number of at-bats and average number of hits for a team in your league.  So you'd have to get the totals and divide by 12.  I am having an oddly hard time getting this data from my Yahoo leagues.

If you have this data, you can email me at rotoauthority@gmail.com or just leave it in the comments.


Full Story |  Comments (5) | Categories:

Catcher Rankings

Here is a tentative look at my catcher rankings and dollar values for a two-catcher 12-team mixed league.  These will definitely be tweaked plenty before draft day.

I used 20 games for eligibility, so Pablo Sandoval (11 games caught) did not make the cut.  If he had, he'd be just below the range of Ryan Doumit and Geovany Soto.  Sandoval's eligibility is a huge factor in two-catcher mixed leagues, especially if the Giants do not acquire a third baseman.  Taylor Teagarden (12 games caught) would also be draftable if eligible.

Here's the list, with draft round in parentheses.

  1. Brian McCann - $19.72 (4)
  2. Joe Mauer - $19.21 (5)
  3. Russell Martin - $18.89 (4)
  4. Mike Napoli - $17.83 (13)
  5. Victor Martinez - $16.61 (7)
  6. Geovany Soto - $15.36 (6)
  7. Ryan Doumit - $15.30 (11)
  8. Matt Wieters - $13.14 (11)
  9. Chris Iannetta - $10.67 (12)
  10. Bengie Molina - $10.53 (14)
  11. Jorge Posada - $9.10 (18)
  12. Ramon Hernandez - $7.42 (22)
  13. A.J. Pierzynski - $6.82 (21)
  14. Brandon Inge - $5.43 (24)
  15. Chris Snyder - $5.06 (27)
  16. Kelly Shoppach - $4.42 (23)
  17. Miguel Olivo - $3.70 (28)
  18. Gerald Laird - $3.28 (23)
  19. Dioner Navarro - $3.11 (21)
  20. Kurt Suzuki - $2.71 (21)
  21. J.R. Towles - $2.13 (28)
  22. Yadier Molina - $1.80 (26)
  23. Rod Barajas - $1.68 (28)
  24. Jesus Flores - $1.00 (28)

The problem with dollar values is that they hinge on playing time.  Among these 24, there is extra uncertainty with Napoli, Wieters, Shoppach, Olivo, and Towles.  Catchers such as Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Jason Varitek, Carlos Ruiz, John Baker, Jeff Clement, Ivan Rodriguez, Miguel Montero, and Kenji Johjima would be in the mix with 400+ ABs.

I like to try to get two of the top seven, but occasionally I'll stretch to the Posada level for my second guy.


Full Story |  Comments (22) | Categories: Catchers

Wanted: Your Fantasy League Data

I am planning on releasing free projections and dollar values in about a month.  The dollar values can be greatly refined if I can acquire more league data.

If you were in a 12-team mixed rotisserie league with 14 hitters (C, C, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, CI, MI, OF, OF, OF, OF, OF, DH) and 9 pitchers in 2008, please consider taking a minute and filling in this spreadsheet with team data.  You may have to change the Points column if there was a tie in the category.  Please note that I can only use data that fits this specific league format.

Once you've filled out the spreadsheet please email it as an attachment to rotoauthority@gmail.com.


Full Story |  Comments (4) | Categories:

Mock Draft - RotoAuthority Reader

A RotoAuthority reader with the handle Ted Williams set up a mock draft for 8:15pm EST tonight.  Head on over to Mock Draft Central and join in.  I will not be able to participate, but I may analyze the results here.


Full Story |  Comments (7) | Categories:

Drafting Second

I picked second in a mock draft last night, and stepped outside of my comfort zone to pick some players I don't normally take.  Here are the league results; here's my team (I was Barry'd treasure):

C - Victor Martinez (8)
C - Mike Napoli (13)
1B - Chris Davis (5)
2B - Alexei Ramirez (4)
SS - Derek Jeter (9)
3B - Alex Rodriguez (1)
MI - Rickie Weeks (20)
CI - Adrian Beltre (19)
OF - B.J. Upton (2)
OF - Bobby Abreu (7)
OF - Hunter Pence (10)
OF - Nelson Cruz (14)
OF - Ryan Spilborghs (23)
DH - David Ortiz (6)
SP - Johan Santana (3)
SP - Yovani Gallardo (11)
SP - Derek Lowe (15)
SP - Brett Myers (16)
SP - Aaron Harang (17)
SP - Gil Meche (22)
RP - Jose Valverde (12)
RP - Heath Bell (18)
RP - Joel Hanrahan (21)

This is probably my favorite team yet; I projected it for a .283 AVG, 341 HR, 1223 RBI, 1231 R, 189 SB, a 3.69 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 1229 K, 89 W, and at least 90 SV.  Mock Draft Central projected my team to come in second place for the most part, calling for AVG, RBI, and SV deficiencies.

I see four guys under .280 and no .300 hitters, but still a strong overall AVG.  I have plenty of guys I think can crack 90 RBI, and anytime I have three decent closers I expect something close to 90 SV.


Full Story |  Comments (23) | Categories:

Seattle Closer Battle

MLB.com's Jim Street talks about the Mariners' closer battle, which he sees as a five horse race.  A look at the candidates:

  • Mark Lowe - Oft-injured.  Poor control.  Averages 94.3 mph on his fastball.
  • Miguel Batista - Awful in '08, but has closer experience and makes a lot of money.
  • Tyler Walker - HR prone, but had decent peripherals in '08 and did get more groundballs.  Has closer experience.
  • David Aardsma - Tons of Ks, awful control, averages 94.5 mph on his fastball.  Closed in Triple A in '07.
  • Roy Corcoran - Gets an insane amount of grounders but doesn't strike people out and walks too many.

If new Mariners manager Don Wakamatsu isn't seduced by the hard throwers, I kind of like Walker as a dark horse.  Thoughts?


Full Story |  Comments (20) | Categories: Closers


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