« The 3400 Club: 2007 Members | Main | Kenshin Kawakami Examined »

Drafting Sixth - With A Twist

In a few short weeks I have become a full-blown fan of mock drafting, which is probably obvious to RotoAuthority readers.  Readers do make a good point that MDC's rankings influence when players are drafted, but it's still a useful experience.

A few days ago I drafted a team starting with the sixth overall pick.  As a twist, I did it without any spreadsheets open.  That means I used more gut feel than specific rankings/projections.  Draft results are here.  Here is what I came up with:

C - Brian McCann (4)
C - Mike Napoli (10)
1B - Derrek Lee (6)
2B - Chase Utley (2)
SS - Jimmy Rollins (1)
3B - Garrett Atkins (7)
MI - Placido Polanco (19)
CI - Adam LaRoche (21)
OF - Matt Kemp (3)
OF - Bobby Abreu (5) yet again
OF - Hunter Pence (8)
OF - Nelson Cruz (12)
OF - Ryan Spilborghs (22)
DH - Travis Hafner (23)

SP - A.J. Burnett (9)
SP - Matt Cain (11)
SP - Ted Lilly (13)
SP - Zack Greinke (14)
SP - Kevin Slowey (15)
SP - Jered Weaver (17)
RP - Heath Bell (16)
RP - Joel Hanrahan (18)
RP - Chris Perez (20)

By now I am kind of set in my ways about who I like at certain points in the draft.  Seems the same few guys usually jump out at me in each round. I am predictable.

One pick that might not look wise is Napoli in the tenth round.  I could pass on him while talking about "value," but if I really believe Napoli is the #5 catcher, why wait and risk settling for significantly less?  In hindsight, with Ryan Doumit also on the board I could've waited one more round.  I chose to get my guy and not risk it.  If you like your rankings you have to trust them.  ADP might say I can wait until the 14th round for Napoli but that is just an average.

MDC's projections put my team in second place, 0.5 points behind due to weaknesses in WHIP and ERA.

I prefer my own projections, which project a 3.805 team ERA: 3.79 for Burnett, 3.68 for Cain, 3.74 for Slowey, 3.75 for Weaver, 4.09 for Lilly, 3.89 for Greinke, 3.33 for Bell, 4.00 for Hanrahan, and 3.79 for Perez.

Regarding the WHIP, I project 1.286 which is indeed unacceptable.  I think this is where not having my rankings around came into play - I didn't realize I was projecting 1.29-1.31 WHIPs for four of my six starters.

Full Story |  Comments (28) | Categories:

Site Map     Contact     About     Advertise     Privacy Policy     MLB Trade Rumors     Rss Feed