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« 200-299 ABs In 2008 | Main | The Verducci Effect: 2009 »
Citi Field: Pitchers' Park?
Eric Simon talked to Greg Rybarcyzk of HitTracker, who believes the Mets' new stadium will play as an extreme pitchers' park. Might be worth inflating your projections for Johan Santana, John Maine, Mike Pelfrey, Francisco Rodriguez, and J.J. Putz. And whatever other starter they end up signing.
HitTracker is useful for fantasy baseball players, by the way. For example, Mark DeRosa led MLB with nine "lucky" home runs in 2008. A lucky home run is defined as "a home run that would not have cleared the fence if it has been struck on a 70-degree, calm day."
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...and deflating your projections for Wright, Reyes, Beltran, Delgado, etc.
Posted by: Ted Williams | January 07, 2009 at 02:43 PM
I am loving the frequency of RotoAuthority posts of late. Keep it up!
Posted by: bstokes | January 07, 2009 at 03:25 PM
Can't argue that Ted.
Posted by: Tim Dierkes | January 07, 2009 at 03:59 PM
Lets wait and see what the lefty/righty splits look like before we discount Delgado and Wright. What a cool site that is. Notice Wright was already high on the "lucky" HR list.
Posted by: Wolverine | January 07, 2009 at 04:04 PM
Between this and sorting out trade rumors, Tim has been a machine. From the article and the diagram it looks like lefty hitters may suffer most (Delgado and platoons), excepting speedsters like Reyes who could leg out more XBH. It also mentions there may be less wind than in Shea, so it still remains to be seen what exactly the difference will be on HR. Interesting stuff. Has anyone seen similar analysis on the new Yankees' stadium?
Posted by: Horatio | January 07, 2009 at 04:25 PM
I heard the new yankee stadium has the exact same dimensions as the old one.
Posted by: behindtheplate8 | January 07, 2009 at 04:53 PM
However, I believe the new Yankee Stadium's home plate is kind of perpendicular to the 3rd baseline so it remains to be seen how the wind plays. Potentially a lefty could be hitting directly toward the river, possible wind issue that they benefited from in the old stadium.
Posted by: Wolverine | January 07, 2009 at 05:04 PM
This also doesn't account for wind patterns, which at this point are really unknown. But if you've spent significant time at Shea during its lifespan, you have to believe odds are they'll be more hitter friendly in CitiField. Shea had these nasty swirling winds coming in from CF, because of its horshoe shape. The stadium walls end just a bit past the foul pole in RF and LF, so wind would rush into CF and then swirl back outwards towards foul territory. Not only is CitiField completely closed in, but now home plate is in the Soutwest and CF is Northeast. As the weather warms up, the wind tends to blow from the SW out to the NE. So even though the dimensions are a bit bigger, I have a feeling we'll see balls "carry" a bit better.
The result of this will be a park that yields HR at rate very similar to Shea. Balls will carry just a bit better in the cooler months, and significantly better during the warmer months, making up for the larger dimensions and higher walls. But because of the larger dimensions and odd angles, if the HR rate stays about the same, CitiField may actually turn out to yield more overall runs than Shea did. The outfield has a lot of ground to cover, and RF looks like its going to be a fielders nightmare. I'm sure Jose Reyes will appreciate the funky angles out there though.
Posted by: MEddler | January 08, 2009 at 02:20 AM
its not completley closed off actually.those are big predictions for not knowing anything about the actual stadium. There are holes in left feild foul territory. Righties will be affected.
also,homeruns may diminish because of the size ,but our core are good runners who hit line drives. aka many more extra base hits.
Posted by: Eli1986champs | January 08, 2009 at 01:17 PM
"
This also doesn't account for wind patterns, which at this point are really unknown. But if you've spent significant time at Shea during its lifespan, you have to believe odds are they'll be more hitter friendly in CitiField. Shea had these nasty swirling winds coming in from CF, because of its horshoe shape. The stadium walls end just a bit past the foul pole in RF and LF, so wind would rush into CF and then swirl back outwards towards foul territory. Not only is CitiField completely closed in, but now home plate is in the Soutwest and CF is Northeast. As the weather warms up, the wind tends to blow from the SW out to the NE. So even though the dimensions are a bit bigger, I have a feeling we'll see balls "carry" a bit better.
The result of this will be a park that yields HR at rate very similar to Shea. Balls will carry just a bit better in the cooler months, and significantly better during the warmer months, making up for the larger dimensions and higher walls. But because of the larger dimensions and odd angles, if the HR rate stays about the same, CitiField may actually turn out to yield more overall runs than Shea did. The outfield has a lot of ground to cover, and RF looks like its going to be a fielders nightmare. I'm sure Jose Reyes will appreciate the funky angles out there though."
Agreed, I honestly believe that Citi Field will play similarly to Shea. The stadium itself might be slightly larger, but it probably needs to be in order to have the same effect because the Wind Traffic should be cut down.
I also think one area the Hit Tracker "Expert" messed up on was discounting the RF Overhang and it's affect on Home Runs to Right Field. Nowhere in his explanation does he seem to factor that in, he only briefly mentions it when talking about modifying the walls down the line.
"its not completley closed off actually.those are big predictions for not knowing anything about the actual stadium. There are holes in left feild foul territory. Righties will be affected."
Completely? No, but there's alot of obstructions that should limit any wind effect. The "Holes" you are talking about should be pretty patched up by the time construction is complete. The Renderings have Banners by those ramps in the LF Corner which should cut down any wind traffic coming from there.
Posted by: AdropOFvenom | January 08, 2009 at 06:59 PM
David Wright doesn't get lucky, we are all lucky to get David Wright.
Posted by: Officer Karkovice > Chuck Norris | January 09, 2009 at 10:59 AM
There is a caveat to the Citi-Shea comp though: Shea played COMPLETELY differently the last two or three years. Before 2006, Shea's HR factor was pretty consistently about 0.880. In 2006 it dropped drastically, all the way to .575 (possibly because they cleared out some of the areas surrounding the parking lot in CF????).
Once CitiField started going up beyond the CF wall however, the wind patterns changed, and the HR rate increased. In 2008, when CitiField was virtually complete and sat just beyond the CF fence of Shea, Shea's HR park factor actually went all the way up to 1.041, meaning it actually slightly inflated HR (athough it was still below 1.000 in overall Park Factor).
Posted by: MEddler | January 10, 2009 at 03:48 AM
Good point on the overhang AdropOfVenom. I'm really curious to see how RF plays out there. Lets hope Ryan Church is recovered well enough to wrap his head around some of the odd bounces he's going to get. It sure will be exciting when Reyes shoots one that way though, and should mean the Mets solid outfield defense gives them an extra advantage at home.
Posted by: MEddler | January 10, 2009 at 03:52 AM