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The Biggest Losers

Today I've compared Mock Draft Central data from today to data from March 18th of this year.  Looking at average draft position, who are the biggest losers?

  1. Travis Hafner - fell 167.99 (43.81 to 211.80).  From the 4th round in '08 drafts to the 18th heading into '09.  I thought Hafner would bounce back to his 40 HR, 110 RBI level of '06, but his shoulder bothered him all year.  He had arthroscopic surgery in October and now he's just a late-round flyer.
  2. Takashi Saito - fell 148.88 (74.96 to 223.84).  The Dodgers didn't tender him a contract due to concerns with his elbow, which was injected with platelet-rich plasma in July in an experimental procedure.  Depending on where he signs he could be a solid buy-low closer option.
  3. Gary Sheffield - fell 145.63 (91.16 to 236.79).  Sheff was a bad eighth-round pick in March, knowing what we knew then.  His shoulder bothered him for most of the year.  I'm still not a fan, but as a 20th rounder you can't really get burned.
  4. Erik Bedard - fell 142.6 (37.21 to 179.81).  I still can't believe people were drafting Bedard in the fourth round.  But in the 15th round, I dig it.  He had September shoulder surgery and hopes to be ready for the start of the season.
  5. Carlos Guillen - fell 141.58 (49.28 to 190.86).  His numbers fell off, and he lost shortstop eligibility.  Doesn't look nearly as appealing at an infield corner.
  6. John Smoltz - fell 136.73 (81.5 to 218.23).  Another shoulder surgery guy.  Was a dangerous seventh-round pick.
  7. Kenji Johjima - fell 128.46 (125.46 to 253.92).  His bat simply died.  I don't see him bouncing back.
  8. Rich Hill - fell 128.12 (114.87 to 242.99).  Hill got a case of the yips and provided no value.  He's out of options, so he may get a fresh start somewhere else.  Physically I don't think much has changed since '07 - he doesn't have an arm injury.
  9. Jeff Kent - fell 125.64 (142.17 to 267.81).  I remember saying he was a bargain.  His power started to slip, but mainly fantasy owners probably expect him to retire.
  10. Brad Penny - fell 121.63 (130.67 to 252.30).   If rest somehow healed up his shoulder, he could have a few solid months in 2009.

The next five: Fausto Carmona, Jeff Francoeur, Billy Wagner, Ian Snell, Dustin McGowan.  The three starters are worth a late look.


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