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The Biggest Gainers

By Tim Dierkes [December 18, 2008 at 3:48pm CST]

Yesterday we compared average draft positions from current drafts to those done in March to see who fell the furthest. Today's let's switch it and look at the biggest gainers.

I won't name every undrafted player from March who is being drafted for '09. But that list is headed by Carlos Quentin, Alexei Ramirez, Cliff Lee, Ryan Ludwick, Chris Davis, Edinson Volquez, Andre Ethier, and Ricky Nolasco. Now on to the gainers who were drafted in March:

Aubrey Huff - gained 239.16 (331.58 to 92.42). Following a surprise '08 that garnered Huff a few MVP votes, he's now being picked in the eighth round. In many leagues you can use him at either infield corner, but should you wait a few rounds and take Chris Davis, Jorge Cantu, or Paul Konerko instead? Huff's season was weird - most of the production came from a massive three-month stretch.
Evan Longoria - gained 215.73 (235.53 to 19.8). Everyone's looking forward to 30-100 in his first full season. Geovany Soto ranked 42nd on this list, by the way. Fantasy leaguers were ready for Soto.
Jay Bruce - gained 214.66 (318.35 to 103.69). Bruce could pop 30 HR as a sophomore.
Ervin Santana - gained 213.66 (332.15 to 118.49). He always had the stuff, and had success in his first two seasons. The key here was the career-best walk rate of 1.93 per nine. Guys like Ian Snell, Ubaldo Jimenez, Jonathan Sanchez, Edinson Volquez, and Chad Billingsley could reach new heights with improved control in '09.
Nate McLouth - gained 202.92(265.56 to 62.64). A preseason pick for 20/20, McLouth came through. No reason he can't repeat, maybe with more steals.
Joey Votto - gained 188.72 (283.58 to 94.86). Very solid rookie year. Aside from Davis and maybe Konerko first base drops off after Votto.
Joe Saunders - gained 185.17 (327.88 to 142.71). Doesn't get strikeouts, and his ERA should be over 4.00 this time. I'll take Zack Greinke any day.
Ryan Doumit - gained 182.48 (311.69 to 129.21). You can still wait til the 11th and get Doumit, who broke out in '08.
Milton Bradley - gained 169.35 (325.70 to 156.35). Unless you're in an OBP league, I don't see the appeal of Bradley in the 14th. Give me Jayson Werth or Nelson Cruz instead.
Jon Lester - gained 166.18 (264.91 to 98.73). He's in line for another strong season if he can stay healthy. I'd rather have the strikeouts an A.J. Burnett or Volquez provides though.

The next five: Xavier Nady, Kerry Wood, Jair Jurrjens, Mark DeRosa, and Dustin Pedroia.

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Comments

Looks like a long list of guys getting overdrafted to me

Posted by: SabermetricsGuy | December 18, 2008 at 03:54 PM

Anyone taking Huff in the top 100 picks is crazy. I mean it.

Tim, I hear you on Lester's strikeouts, but you are missing an important point. Here are Lester's K/9 by month in 2008:
April: 4.5
May: 6.7
June: 5.2
July: 8.2
August: 6.8
September: 7.5

His K-rate went way up the 2nd half of the season. And considering he is only 25 next year, would anyone be surprised to see his K/9 at least stabilize at his post-ASB level (7.4) or maybe tick upward? If he sits at 7.5 K/9 over 200 IP, that is 167 K. I think Lester has some upside, but it really depends on the specific draft. As a side-not on Lester, his BB/9 and HR/9 improved quite a bit later in the year, while his H/9 only dropped slightly. I see significant improvement in his 2nd half stats that foretells further improvement.

Posted by: mymrbig | December 19, 2008 at 10:03 AM

Those are all good points on Lester. I like the guy, I think he will be good again in '09. In the ninth round, though, there are probably some guys I'd rather take.

Posted by: Tim Dierkes | December 19, 2008 at 11:11 AM

I'm really curious to see Shandler's projections for players like these given that there were so many breakouts last season. The '09 Forecaster can't get here fast enough...

Posted by: SabermetricsGuy | December 19, 2008 at 11:19 AM

Ok, so being a Reds fan..having Bruce, Votto, and Encarnacion in my lineup a bad idea?

Posted by: GmblngPtchr20 | December 21, 2008 at 09:38 AM

sabremetrics, i hear ya..i have mine on preorder as we speak...

Posted by: tim | December 30, 2008 at 08:33 PM

tim d, ? for u..how much should we avoid pitchers managed by dusty baker???

Posted by: tim | December 30, 2008 at 08:34 PM