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« What It Takes To Win: HR | Main | Your #1 Sleeper »
Power/Speed Picks
The 20/20 player is a beautiful thing in fantasy baseball. Unfortunately, I am projecting only seven of them for the 2009 season:
- Hanley Ramirez
- Grady Sizemore
- Alfonso Soriano
- Ian Kinsler
- Nate McLouth
- Corey Hart
- Brandon Phillips
McLouth will probably be the last drafted of these seven, and he's going in the sixth round.
If I stretch my filter to 17/17 players, I find eleven more:
- Alex Rodriguez
- David Wright
- Jimmy Rollins
- Matt Kemp
- Carlos Beltran
- Bobby Abreu
- Alex Rios
- Chris Young
- Jayson Werth
- Rickie Weeks
- Chris Dickerson
The last three are the late-round bargains - all can be had in the 15th round or later. Batting average is the biggest flaw with all three. Elijah Dukes and Adam Jones might fit the mold as well.
If I stretch my filter still further, I find possible gems such as Lastings Milledge (12th round), Nelson Cruz (16th round), and even Torii Hunter (11th round). I have B.J. Upton at 15 HR and 40 SBs, but his second round draft position gives full respect to his seven postseason HR and 24 bombs in 2007.
Who are your power/speed favorites?
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What about BJ Upton?
Posted by: Ryan | December 31, 2008 at 04:55 PM
I have to think BJ Upton has a legit shot at being a 20/20 man again. He's a lock for the stolen bases and if the postseason was any indication of how his shoulder is doing, the power should be there too.
Posted by: cake | December 31, 2008 at 04:57 PM
You have 11 more as you have Kinsler as one of the original 7 and again as one of the 12 more.
Posted by: boblani | December 31, 2008 at 05:18 PM
I think Rios is a better projection for 20/20 than McLouth, and I'd definitely take him first even if he isn't.
Posted by: 92-93 | December 31, 2008 at 05:56 PM
No Alexie Ramirez?
Posted by: os_gamejunkie | December 31, 2008 at 06:02 PM
I'd have to agree that BJ Upton has a legitimate shot at 20/20 if his shoulder's healthy. Also, I'd allow for the possibility that Ryan Braun's steals inch up from 15 to 20, though I certainly wouldn't count on it.
Posted by: redaxe | December 31, 2008 at 06:13 PM
You left off Alexei Rameriz and BJ Upton. In addition, you failed to mention Ryan Braun and Matt Holliday (I do see a drop off in SBs with team change.)
Posted by: Mike R | December 31, 2008 at 06:50 PM
What about Hunter Pence? I'd say he's at least an outside shot at 17/17, if last year's 25 HRs & 11 SBs are any indication (let's just ignore the 10 CSs for now...)
Hopefully he can bring up that BA a little.
Posted by: jatorres | January 01, 2009 at 12:27 AM
If his hamstrings are ok...how about Eric Byrnes?
Posted by: Doug | January 01, 2009 at 07:53 AM
My long shot nomination is Ryan Spilborghs. With a full season at Coors as a starting OF, I think 17/17 could be a possibility, and if not, you got him at the end of your draft, so no harm done.
Posted by: Michael Sylvie | January 01, 2009 at 08:45 AM
What about Curtis Granderson
Posted by: vtpistonsfan | January 01, 2009 at 08:58 AM
I think Granderson has to be looked at as well. Also, how about Russell Martin? Last year's power production was a bit low from what he is capable of and his 19/21 year in 2007 has to be promising.
Others I think could sniff 20/20 or 17/17:
Randy Winn
Justin Upton
Shane Victorino
Chase Utley (depending on health)
Hunter Pence
Lance Berkman
Alexei Ramirez
Dark Horses:
Mike Napoli
Andre Ethier
Derek Jeter
Howie Kendrick
Posted by: AA | January 01, 2009 at 11:06 AM
What about Holliday? He stole over 25 bases last year, and we all know his power threat
Posted by: bballrox4717 | January 01, 2009 at 11:06 AM
Victorino?
Posted by: ball four | January 01, 2009 at 11:13 AM
Jose Reyes has only hit 20 HR once, but I like him to do it again in 2009. The SB, obviously, shouldn't be an issue, assuming he's healthy.
Posted by: Harold | January 01, 2009 at 11:14 AM
Chris Young yeah, but he'll absolutely kill you in average.
Posted by: 5150bosox | January 01, 2009 at 11:16 AM
i know he's right on the edge of 20/20 with both last year, but if he stays steady or improves even marginally...
dustin pedroia... throwing in 300+ ave doesnt hurt either
Posted by: UpstateNYSOXfan | January 01, 2009 at 12:12 PM
I think that if the cardinals give him enough at bats, Colby Rasmus will definitely be sniffing 20/20.... However, lots of question marks on how he will adjust to the big leagues....
(For those of you on the East coast, the Cardinals are a proud baseball franchise located in St. Louis, MO.)
Posted by: arose3 | January 01, 2009 at 01:15 PM
A lot depends on where he hits in the order, but Rick Ankiel might hit 20/20. Also like Rasmus if he starts. And here's a bit of a long shot, but I like Mike Aviles of the Royals..
Posted by: R.W. from tahoe | January 01, 2009 at 05:34 PM
I think Upton might even be a darkhorse for 30/30 club. His 24 HR in 07 wasnt even a full season. He had shoulder surgery this winter so he should be much stronger. The reason his power was zapped was because his shoulder wouldnt let him turn on inside fastballs, so guys burried him in. In the post season though, he was looking for inside fastballs and crushed them. 30 HR and 50 SB is not so crazy.
Posted by: delmonmvp | January 01, 2009 at 05:59 PM
I would add Dustin Pedroia to this list of 20/20 candidates.
Posted by: krancer | January 02, 2009 at 12:01 PM
soriano...cuz hes coming of 2 mediocre years 4 him
carpenter...cuz hes a hungry and healthy
werth...cuz hes young healthy and just now hitting his stride
D lee...cuz hes finally ready to help carry the cubs next year
and my biggest sleeper is
Mike fontenot cuz hes been in the bigs for 2 seasons and is not blocked by a bigger contract at 2nd base
guesstimate production with 500 abs
.285-.300 avg
70-80 rbi's
18-24 hr's
145-150 hits
Posted by: gunsnascar | January 02, 2009 at 02:56 PM
No way Fontenot hits those power projections. He is not a .500 SLG hitter. As a Rays fan, I know that Zorbist (who hit 12 HR in 200+ AB) isnt a 20+ HR hitter either. Over a full season, the things will average out at he'll hit 13-18 home runs. Still great for a second baseman. I do buy into a .290 BA, just not the power.
Posted by: delmonmvp | January 02, 2009 at 04:21 PM
NICK MARKAKIS!!! '07 23 HR 17 SBs, '08 20 HR 10 SBs, if their offense improves at all, i see him taking more chances on the basepaths especially if he continues to hit .300 and draw more walks
Posted by: golfstar2020 | January 02, 2009 at 05:06 PM
Any chance Jason Bay runs a little more for the Runnin' Red Sox? He was a perfect 10-for-10 last year in steals, and had 21 as recently as 2005.
Posted by: eck66 | January 03, 2009 at 03:06 AM
My sleeper for this category, although more likely a 15 HR 30 SB kind of player, is Fred Lewis from the San Francisco Giants. In his first full season in the bigs, Lewis hit 9 HRs and stole 21 bases in 468 ABs while not starting for the entire season. With some more consistent playing time those power number might jump.
While the Giants are looking like they might add another outfield bat, it would likely come with the departure of Rowand or Winn, so I don't see Lewis losing his spot at the top of the Giants batting order.
Posted by: JesseNYM | January 05, 2009 at 09:34 PM
How are you projecting Beltran to not go 20/20? He does it virtually every year.
Posted by: Nick | January 08, 2009 at 03:09 PM
I have him at 19 SBs, the exact number doesnt really matter.
Posted by: Tim Dierkes | January 08, 2009 at 04:58 PM
I think that hoping for players who are entering thier power prime to steal MORE bases is, with some exceptions, wishful thinking. The guys who will steal more in their late twenties or early thirties are usually guys who were either injured the year before, or will have many more opportunities. Rarely do guys DEVELOP the skill set to steal more bases as they get older. SB's are a young mans skill. Getting 20 SB's from Markakis or Bay seems like a long shot. I actually like Reyes chance to hit 20 HR better than many of these full time guys listed have have never swiped 20 bases before to do that this year. My 2 cents anyway.
Posted by: Tim | February 04, 2009 at 10:39 PM