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Mark Teixeira Signing Analysis

The Yankees made another huge move today, signing Mark Teixeira for $180 million.  Let's talk about the fantasy effects.

I had Tex at something like .298-33-114-97-2 in 2009, which would put him fifth among first basemen and among the top 25 hitters drafted.  I'm not sure how the new Yankee Stadium will play, but I don't see it causing a big difference.  It's also indeterminate whether Tex will see increased RBI chances as a Yankee.  With the Braves he hit behind Chipper Jones, who got on base 47% of the time.  With the Angels he followed lower OBP types.

Tex batted with 355 runners on base in 2008, 95th in the game.  Five Yankee players batted with more in '08, so that indicates maybe he will get more chances.  Still, I'm not comfortable counting on a player driving in more than 115 runs.

Right now it seems that the Teixeira signing reduces playing time for the group of Hideki Matsui, Johnny Damon, Xavier Nady, and Nick Swisher.  However, it would not be surprising to see the Yanks trade one of them.

Unless the Angels go get someone, it's Kendry Morales at first base to start 2009.  With a Major League Equivalent of .276/.316/.429, it's hard to get excited.  I suppose he could approach 20 HR with 550 ABs.

The Teixeira signing seemingly makes the Nationals more likely to pursue Adam Dunn.  There would be a ballpark effect - his two home parks in '08 inflated left-handed HRs greatly while Nationals park suppresses them significantly.  Maybe Dunn's raw power overrides that somewhat though.

All in all I don't see a huge fantasy effect from this signing.  Most likely the Yankee Hype Effect pushes Teixeira from his current 14.23 average draft position into the first round.  I wouldn't take him there.




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