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« A 3.35 ERA For Phil Hughes? | Main | AL to NL: Pitchers »
Jonathan Sanchez Examined
Today let's take a look at 26 year-old Giants starter Jonathan Sanchez.
Sanchez posted a 5.01 ERA in 158 innings/29 starts this year. However, his xFIP put him at 4.36. A more advanced stat, tRA, put him at 4.53. His month-by-month ERAs were inconsistent - 3.48, 5.20, 3.10, 8.57, 3.75 (two starts), 7.83.
Sanchez pitched 75.6 innings in 2007, so in 2008 his total jumped by 82.3. Injury history: biceps tendinitis in March of '07, rib cage strain in July of '07, strained oblique in September of '07, and a rotator cuff strain in August of '08. That 7.83 ERA September this year was after he returned from the DL. He's a risky pitcher.
Sanchez is appealing because of his peripherals - 8.8 H/9, 0.8 HR/9, 4.3 BB/9, 8.9 K/9. The walks (and subsequent 1.45 WHIP) are the unappealing part. He flashed solid control in June and only walked one in his two August starts (one of those against the Astros, dead last in the NL in walks).
Does he deserve credit for the low hit and HR rates? His BABIP was .327 vs. the Giants' .315 mark, so if anything he was shafted even while allowing less than a hit per inning. A 10.0% HR per flyball rate and 41.1% groundball rate suggest the HR rate is fairly realistic.
Projection systems: Bill James says 3.90/1.40, Marcels says 4.61/1.44, ZiPS says 4.28/1.46. He's probably not going to help your WHIP unless he takes an unforeseen leap in control or has a swing in his BABIP luck.
Stuff-wise his fastball averages 90.8mph and he'll also use a changeup and a slider. He gets tons of swings and misses. In their '07 handbook, Baseball America called Sanchez's fastball "sneaky-fast" and spoke highly of his changeup. He doesn't throw as many changeups as Cole Hamels, but Sanchez does have some similarities.
Put it all together and we have the makings of a high-risk, high-reward fantasy pick. Sanchez is capable of whiffing 40 in a month; he's also capable of walking everyone or winding up on the DL. It's a bit early for mock draft data, but Sanchez is being picked in the 18th round right now - after Mike Pelfrey, before Jered Weaver. By the 18th or so things are enough of a crapshoot that Sanchez is a fine upside play. If he gets hurt and you cut him it won't really affect your team. For some reason I had a strong 18th round in '08 - in various drafts I picked Nate McLouth, B.J. Ryan, Conor Jackson, and Hiroki Kuroda.
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Sanchez is one of those guys who has a fairly high upside, sort of like an Oliver Perez lite, but can also kill you. If you spot start him, it could end up really hurting your overall numbers if you catch a few really ugly starts, which he will have. I will probably steer clear of him, but in my 15-team NFBC league, it's possible I could take a late-round flyer on him. I would take Jared Weaver WAY before Sanchez.
Posted by: rpg006 | December 15, 2008 at 02:34 PM
What is more important was that once Sanchez got his kinks out in his first start of the season, after not starting for a couple of years, he was very dominant as a pitcher, almost as good as Lincecum, he had a 3.53 ERA after his first start and up to the All-Star Break.
Remember, he hasn't started in years, and was already way past his IP in previous years by the time of the All-Star break. Assuming he builds up his stamina during the off-season, he should be able to keep his mechanics going deeper into the season in 2009 and generate less disaster starts.
Posted by: obsessivegiantscompulsive | December 17, 2008 at 12:05 PM