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Carlos Quentin: Overrated?
Carlos Quentin is being drafted in the late third/early fourth round (position 37.76). He's being picked 14th among outfielders. Is this he a good pick at that point in the draft?
I'd say that if Quentin is able to muster a .290-30-100-100-5 season, he's worthy of being drafted in that spot. Those are lofty heights, but the guy hit five home runs in his worst month this year. If he wasn't coming off a wrist injury, I'd feel OK about him as the 37th pick.
Quentin has Jason Bay and Nick Markakis being taken before him, Alex Rios, Vladimir Guerrero, and Matt Kemp after. Once again I really like Kemp. He does it all, and should come close to 20 HR and 30 SBs. I think Kemp has top five outfielder potential in 2009.
That's my other qualm with the early pick for Quentin. I prefer to build my offense around power/speed guys, and Quentin doesn't bring the SBs. I don't see him as a bust by any means, but I can't see myself taking him with my fourth-round pick. It just seems like I'd be "buying high."
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I have Quentin in a dynasty league with a 10 keeper limit but also have a number of other outfielders so I am looking to trade him for some pitching (as of now I am keeping 10 hitters, 0 pitchers) what sort of value should I look for in return?
Posted by: revans37 | December 30, 2008 at 01:23 AM
I love Kemp as much as you do, Tim, but aren't you "buying high" with him as well? If you can get him in the 5th, then why reach into the 3rd?
Posted by: IowaCubs | December 30, 2008 at 08:44 AM
Didn't mean to imply I would take Kemp earlier than I had to. Wouldn't do that with any player.
Posted by: Tim Dierkes | December 30, 2008 at 08:47 AM
I would trade my first born for an opportunity to draft Quentin at the end of the 3rd. I imagine all the time getting the 11th or 12th pick and taking Braun and Holliday then Quentin and Hamels in the 3rd and 4th. I have a feeling CQ will be going early 3rd come March though.
Posted by: es | December 30, 2008 at 11:22 AM
ES- You'd want to draft 3 OF with your first 3 picks?
Posted by: Papelboner | December 30, 2008 at 12:55 PM
Agree with you on this one, Tim. How can somebody take Quentin before the following more reliable players: Roberts, Vlad, Webb, or Halladay?
Posted by: SabermetricsGuy | December 30, 2008 at 01:00 PM
I'm not sold on Quentin in the 3rd only because of his wrist injury. A decent spring and I'm fine with that or even higher. I don't see the value in Kemp until another 8-10 OFs are off the board.
I get the whole speed/power combination and draft the same, but Kemps BB/K rate is 1/3 and Ks twice as much as Quentin with half the homeruns.
The way I see it, Kemp needs one of a couple things to in order to merit a 3-4 round pick. 1) Turn doubles into HR's 2) BB/K rate of 1/2 or better 3) AVG to jump to .315 or better. #1 seem possible though Chavez Ravine is a bad hitters park, and #2 not likely to happen so quick.
Whereas Quentin was already solid last season in only 480 ABs. Near 1/1 BB/K, OBP near .400, OPS .570. On top of the solid year, he'll command a lot more respect next season likely meaning more BBs and higher OBP. Also, he only had one season in the minors batting below .300 and may see an increase from his '08 .287 mark. And the reason he's already being picked in the third, his 36 HR in 480 ABs translates to 45 HRs in 600 ABs.
Posted by: afdaddy | December 30, 2008 at 05:24 PM
Would you consider him a 3rd rounder in a league that uses OBP?
Posted by: jintman | December 30, 2008 at 05:31 PM
CQ is a definite third rounder, period.
Posted by: rotomaniac | December 31, 2008 at 01:00 AM