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Home Run Per Flyball Leaders

By Tim Dierkes [November 22, 2008 at 9:00am CST]

Today we'll take a look at this year's home run per flyball leaders. This rate is supposed to regress toward 10%, but every year many pitchers benefit by posting lower rates. But before we get into the 2008 leaders, let's examine those who topped the list in '07. Did these players see their HR/flyball rate go up or down in '08?

Brad Penny - 4.7% - went up
Chris Young - 5.0% - went up
Kelvim Escobar - 6.0% - didn't pitch
Chien-Ming Wang - 6.4% - went down
Tim Hudson - 6.6% - went up
Matt Cain - 6.7% - went up
Jake Peavy - 6.7% - went up
Adam Wainwright - 7.0% - went up
Roy Halladay - 7.3% - went up
Jon Garland - 7.4% - went up

Tons of injured pitchers among the '07 leaders for some reason. But more importantly, all but one of the active pitchers saw their HR/flyball go up the following year.

Now let's look at the '08 leaders:

Cliff Lee - 6.0%
Tim Lincecum - 6.5%
Ubaldo Jimenez - 6.9%
John Danks - 7.1%
Mike Pelfrey - 7.2%
Daisuke Matsuzaka - 7.5%
Dana Eveland - 7.5%
Ryan Dempter - 7.6%
Ben Sheets - 7.6%
Justin Verlander - 7.9%

Holding all else equal, we should expect these pitchers' HR rates (and therefore ERAs) to rise in 2009. Keep that in mind on draft day. Other notable pitchers with abnormally low HR/flyball rates include Joey Devine, Matt Lindstrom, Jonathan Broxton, Brad Lidge, Kerry Wood, Brian Fuentes, Chris Volstad, Kevin Gregg, Grant Balfour, Bobby Jenks, Anthony Reyes, B.J. Ryan, Joba Chamberlain, Rich Harden, C.C. Sabathia, Brad Ziegler, Francisco Rodriguez, Dustin McGowan, Andrew Miller, and Justin Duchscherer.

Full Story | Comments (7) | Categories: MLB Stat Leaders

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Comments

According to fangraphs.com Matt Cain had a 5.5% in 2007 and although it did go up he has consistently posted a HR/FB at or below 7.1%.

This is the one caveat of HR/FB. It is based on the hitter and not the pitcher. If you face enough hitters you will reach league average, but Cain plays in a league that has mostly pitchers parks and before Manny and Dunn came in July there was no power to speak of.

If he went to another team his numbers would regress for sure, but he's tough to predict since he has done this for 4 years now.

Posted by: Trizza | November 22, 2008 at 10:35 AM

Verlander could be worse? wow!

Posted by: Kramerica Industries | November 22, 2008 at 03:04 PM

I'd like to see a Duchscherer projection for '09

Posted by: tarpey_nath | November 28, 2008 at 01:09 PM

Kind of funny how it worked that 1 and 2 won the Cy.

Wang actually went down so safe to say he's an exception to the rule?

Posted by: Schruender | December 07, 2008 at 08:27 PM

Any chance of seeing an Alcidies Escobar projection? Tim, will you becoming out with your projections? Last year you didnt do due to time...Thanks

Posted by: The Next Peter Gammons | December 08, 2008 at 12:22 PM

No Dan Haren? That guy lives off of the routine fly ball.