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« RotoAuthority League Review | Main | BABIP, Anyone?: Year End »
Ryan Dempster Examined
Ryan Dempster, typically undrafted in mixed leagues, had a massive season in 2008. He was ninth in baseball with a 2.96 ERA, and added a 1.21 WHIP, 17 wins, and 187 strikeouts. Dempster had been mostly a reliever since 2003. Let's take a closer look at his season.
2.96 ERA
1.21 WHIP
17 wins
15.7 expected wins
206.6 innings
6.26 innings per start
8.14 K/9
3.31 BB/9
7.58 H/9
.283 BABIP vs. .295 team BABIP
0.61 HR/9
7.6% HR per flyball rate
48.1% groundball rate
Trying to take a stab at manually projecting Dempster for next year, let's go with these rates: 7.5 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, 8.3 H/9, 0.85 HR/9. Basically I am just trying to be conservative, especially with his hit and home run rates.
If I plug in those numbers I get something in the neighborhood of a 3.80 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. Kind of in the range of Gil Meche this year. You'd like to see your mixed league team as a whole post an ERA around 3.70, a WHIP around 1.25. So guys like Dempster or Meche are mostly helping you in wins and strikeouts, though ERA can vary wildly.
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Dempster wasn't even drafted in my league; I picked him up as a free agent in early April. I also got Volquez, Marcum, McLouth and Mora as free agents, but Dempster was the best of the lot overall.
Having said that, I doubt I'd draft him next year. As you pointed out, his numbers are highly likely to decline. Plus, I'm a little concerned that after so long working in relief, the extra innings in 2008 will hurt his arm.
Posted by: metafrantic | October 11, 2008 at 11:44 AM