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BABIP, Anyone?: Year End

By Tim Dierkes [October 16, 2008 at 7:49pm CST]

Let's do a year-end version of the immensely popular series, BABIP, Anyone?! The following players had abnormally low BABIPs, meaning their WHIPs will likely rise in 2009 if their skills remain the same. Minimum: 100 innings.

NAME	BABIP	K/BB	ISO	ERA	WHIP
Justin Duchscherer	0.238	2.88	0.112	2.54	0.99
Armando Galarraga	0.239	2.07	0.184	3.73	1.19
Dave Bush	0.239	2.27	0.191	4.18	1.14
Tim Wakefield	0.242	1.95	0.159	4.13	1.18
Shaun Marcum	0.248	2.46	0.166	3.39	1.16
Chris Young	0.259	1.94	0.163	3.96	1.29
Gavin Floyd	0.261	2.07	0.188	3.84	1.26
Jeremy Guthrie	0.261	2.07	0.149	3.63	1.23
Scott Olsen	0.262	1.64	0.184	4.20	1.31
Daisuke Matsuzaka	0.262	1.64	0.113	2.90	1.32
Greg Smith	0.263	1.28	0.160	4.16	1.35
Cole Hamels	0.263	3.70	0.157	3.09	1.08
Tim Hudson	0.268	2.13	0.126	3.17	1.16
Joe Saunders	0.269	1.94	0.131	3.41	1.21

Some pretty ERAs and WHIPs in this group, but the players with K/BBs under 2.5 here are on shaky footing for next year. They shouldn't necessarily be avoided, but be mindful of their BABIP-based success.

The next group is where we might find some bargains.

NAME	BABIP	K/BB	ISO	ERA	WHIP
Ian Snell	0.360	1.52	0.171	5.42	1.76
Kevin Millwood	0.359	2.60	0.150	5.07	1.59
Andrew Miller	0.354	1.59	0.135	5.87	1.64
Livan Hernandez	0.354	1.86	0.164	5.48	1.63
Carlos Silva	0.348	2.16	0.174	6.46	1.60
Nate Robertson	0.343	1.74	0.203	6.35	1.66
Andy Pettitte	0.341	2.87	0.132	4.54	1.41
Garrett Olson	0.341	1.34	0.166	6.65	1.73
Kevin Correia	0.337	1.43	0.171	6.05	1.70
Manny Parra	0.335	1.96	0.135	4.39	1.54
Doug Davis	0.332	1.75	0.137	4.32	1.53
Jo-Jo Reyes	0.332	1.50	0.200	5.81	1.65
Pedro Martinez	0.331	1.98	0.194	5.61	1.57
Jorge De La Rosa	0.330	2.06	0.149	4.92	1.46
Adam Eaton	0.330	1.30	0.177	5.80	1.64

An ISO in the .150 range means the pitcher gave up an abnormal amount of singles, rather than extra-base hits. So I like Millwood, Pettitte, and maybe de la Rosa and Parra as sleepers. Those last two still need to improve their control. If Snell rediscovers his control and gets some defense behind him, he could bounce back to his very solid '07 level. He probably won't be drafted in mixed leagues.

They didn't make the chart, but Joba Chamberlain, Boof Bonser, Mike Mussina, Clayton Kershaw, Bronson Arroyo, Dustin McGowan, Josh Beckett, Chad Billingsley, Javier Vazquez, and A.J. Burnett all had BABIPs in the .320s. Those could come down significantly and give a nice boost. Get Bonser to the NL with a good pitching coach and he could be a fine undrafted sleeper for '09.