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Let's take a quick-and-dirty look at a simple stat, number of pitches thrown. Your 2007 leaders:
Interesting list - the majority of these pitchers have missed time due to injury in 2008. Your '08 leaders:
Sabathia and Meche have really tallied up the pitches, and C.C. has many more coming. Sabathia's suitors both in real life and fantasy baseball should exercise caution. He will be going in the second or third round and definitely carries risk. It wouldn't be surprising to see a few more of these guys go down next year.
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I much prefer this to the innings pitched stat. What other factors can you use to determine injury risk? What about percentage of breaking balls/sliders, etc., or arm angle?
Maybe I'm overthinking this a bit, but it seems like there would be a formula for figuring this stuff out beyond just pitches thrown.
In any event, thanks for this info, Tim.
Posted by: IowaCubs | September 11, 2008 at 10:20 AM
You could probably use Baseball Prospectus' Pitcher Abuse Points per start.
Posted by: Tim Dierkes | September 11, 2008 at 05:09 PM
Poor Tim Lincecum. Between the arm-heavy mechanics and the high pitch count, how long 'til he goes under the knife?
Posted by: stevegoz | September 13, 2008 at 11:24 PM