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« Pitcher Abuse Points Per Start | Main | The Fantasy Baseball Code Of Honor »
Looking For Next Year's Sleepers
The best sleepers are the ones no one saw coming, like Cliff Lee. Looking back at our 2008 Undrafted All-Star Team, one common theme is players who have had past success but not in 2007 (Aubrey Huff, Melvin Mora, Randy Winn, Lee, Ryan Dempster, Ervin Santana, Kerry Wood, Brian Fuentes).
With that in mind, here are some players who had success in '07 but not 2008:
David Ortiz, Jorge Posada, Prince Fielder, Carlos Pena, Victor Martinez, Edgar Renteria, B.J. Upton, Robinson Cano, and Troy Tulowitzki for hitters.
Fausto Carmona, Brad Penny, Erik Bedard, Aaron Harang, Chien-Ming Wang, Justin Verlander, Chris Young, Ian Snell, and Rich Hill had nice years in '07.
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What do you think about Dustin McGowan heading into next year?
Posted by: chioane | September 16, 2008 at 09:09 PM
Flashes of brilliance from Justin Upton. He emerges as a top 40 guy next year.
Milledge, Butler (I'm usually a year early, although I'm not as optimistic), Dukes, Stephen Drew, Adam Jones, Gallardo, Bruce, Alex Gordon (finally?), Jeff Clement, Chris B. Young may all take significant steps forward.
Posted by: finite24 | September 17, 2008 at 01:41 AM
Not so Tim. Steve Phillips saw Cliff Lee coming, a whole year ahead of time. He called Lee the "best left handed starter in the AL" on Baseball Tonight, which I'm sure everyone rememberes because it seemed like such a stupid thing to say (and it was), with Santana still in the AL at the time to say the least. How does he still have a job? Cuz he's willing to do things like this:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dJhYVfcQj4A
(Sorry to get off subject. Every time I hear how good Lee is I think of Steve Phillips)
Posted by: FriendofRotoAuthority | September 17, 2008 at 11:09 AM
This is excellent advice for 2009.
Posted by: bertrecords | September 17, 2008 at 01:04 PM
We can probably leave Bedard off the radar. As for McGowan, he had shoulder surgery. It'd either have to be a real late flier or he'd have to be bringing it in spring.
Good suggestions finite...Gallardo is a great one. Could be a 12th round or later pick since he was 10th round this year. I am also liking Harang as a bargain pick.
Posted by: Tim Dierkes | September 17, 2008 at 10:00 PM
I'm not sure how much of a "sleeper" Carlos Pena is gonna be next year if he ends up with 30+ homeruns in 500 or so at bats.
Posted by: jg | September 18, 2008 at 11:10 AM
Also successful in 2007, not in 2008: Paul Konerko, Nick Swisher, and Austin Kearns. I attribute the problems of the first two to being on my team, and project that next year, when they're not, they'll bounce back big.
Posted by: redaxe | September 18, 2008 at 12:43 PM
Tim -- what do you think of V-Mart as a keeper? Positional scarcity says yes, but how much will he play? Are elbow problems particularly slow to heal? And he's not getting any younger...
Posted by: ball four | September 18, 2008 at 01:27 PM
He's no huge sleeper, but Michael Barrett had years of success before struggling in San Diego. He is still in his prime ages and hasn't had a real major injury.
Posted by: Grant77 | September 18, 2008 at 02:39 PM
Catcher is going to be deeper than normal next year. Barrett doesn't see the light of day.
Posted by: finite24 | September 18, 2008 at 03:08 PM
Tim, thoughts on Barry Zito as a NL Comeback Player of 2009? He'll be under 200 IP at the end of the 2008 season, (not to say he didn't throw the equivalent number of pitches to someone who threw over 200 IP) and he's brought down his ERA, WHIP, K/BB, and BAA since the All-Star game (not by MUCH int he ERA department, but still).
Has he totally lost it or was this entire season just a dip?
Posted by: FriendofRotoAuthority | September 18, 2008 at 06:24 PM
Jesus FriendofRoto, get rid of your hard on for Zito. Zito this, Zito that...it's over! Stop drafting him, stop spot-starting him, stop thinking about him! He's been on steady decline for 3 years now and he's on the wrong side of 30. Let it go! He sucks, and he didn't even deserve the Cy Young Award he got in the first place! Forget about him! It's 2008 for God's sake!
Posted by: Pawtucket Pat | September 19, 2008 at 09:06 AM
finite24 why do you think Catcher is going to be deeper next year? Sure Mauer, McCann, and Martin had decent years, Soto, Doumit, and Shoppach will be drafted higher. But after that its the injuries and age of Posada. The question marks of Victor Martinez and Iannetta and the leftovers of Molina, Pierzynski, and ???
.
Outside of making Iannetta a sleeper or overdrafting McCann or Martin, position scarcity looks scary at C next year to me...
Posted by: jg | September 19, 2008 at 01:26 PM
How the hell is it scarce?
There's guys like Teagarden, Sandoval, Clement that can give good value next year...
Posted by: EsTiLO | September 19, 2008 at 08:48 PM
Yea, what he said. Actually, I don't think Iannetta is a question mark anymore. Nor is Clement, IMO. Wieters, Teagarden, and Sandoval, sure, they're debatable.
Mauer, McCann, Soto, Doumit, Martin, Martinez, Clement, and Iannetta is a very good top 8. With a few of Wieters, Shoppach, Molina, Sandoval, Teagarden, and Max Ramirez taking a step forward, we're going to have an excellent top 12.
Posted by: finite24 | September 20, 2008 at 05:23 PM
IMO, I feel that Shortstop is going to be the hardest position to fill, not Catcher. Think about it: Ramirez and Reyes. Everyone else that has potential is coming off a bad year, for them(Jeter, Rollins) or injury prone(Tulo, Furcal) everyone else out there doesnt offer much or is awful in a catagory...(i hope im not forgeting a good SS, i feel like i am)
Posted by: Kramerica Industries | September 20, 2008 at 06:05 PM
Forgetting a couple. Drew seems like a safe bet next year. Alexei Ramirez could take a step back given his awful plate discipline, but he certainly has potential and isn't coming off a bad year.
Posted by: finite24 | September 20, 2008 at 08:35 PM