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My first baseman rankings back in March, including round drafted:
| Rnk | Name | $ VAL | Round |
| 1 | Albert Pujols | $30.64 | 1 |
| 2 | Ryan Howard | $24.85 | 1 |
| 3 | Prince Fielder | $21.91 | 1 |
| 4 | Mark Teixeira | $19.25 | 2 |
| 5 | Lance Berkman | $17.02 | 3 |
| 6 | Derrek Lee | $15.61 | 4 |
| 7 | Justin Morneau | $13.02 | 4 |
| 8 | Carlos Guillen | $12.14 | 5 |
| 9 | Carlos Pena | $11.41 | 5 |
| 10 | Adrian Gonzalez | $11.25 | 7 |
| 11 | Todd Helton | $10.19 | 11 |
| 12 | Paul Konerko | $8.98 | 8 |
| 13 | Victor Martinez | $8.84 | 3 |
| 14 | Nick Swisher | $7.76 | 7 |
| 15 | Alex Gordon | $6.00 | 12 |
| 16 | James Loney | $5.36 | 11 |
| 17 | Carlos Delgado | $5.29 | 12 |
| 18 | Adam LaRoche | $4.04 | 19 |
| 19 | Kevin Youkilis | $3.79 | 15 |
| 20 | Conor Jackson | $2.76 | 26 |
| 21 | Ryan Garko | $2.61 | 15 |
| 22 | Mike Jacobs | $0.30 | 27 |
| 23 | Aubrey Huff | $0.19 | 28 |
Actual rankings for 2008:
| Rnk | Name | Round |
| 1 | Albert Pujols | 1 |
| 2 | Lance Berkman | 3 |
| 3 | Mark Teixeira | 2 |
| 4 | Aubrey Huff | 28 |
| 5 | Kevin Youkilis | 15 |
| 6 | Miguel Cabrera | 1 |
| 7 | Justin Morneau | 4 |
| 8 | Ryan Howard | 1 |
| 9 | Adrian Gonzalez | 7 |
| 10 | Carlos Delgado | 12 |
| 11 | Derrek Lee | 4 |
| 12 | Prince Fielder | 1 |
| 13 | Jorge Cantu | N/A |
| 14 | Conor Jackson | 26 |
| 15 | Garrett Atkins | 5 |
| 16 | Jose Lopez | N/A |
| 17 | Joey Votto | 24 |
| 18 | James Loney | 11 |
| 19 | Adam Dunn | 4 |
| 20 | Jason Giambi | 23 |
| 21 | Carlos Pena | 5 |
| 22 | Casey Blake | 24 |
| 23 | Mike Jacobs | 27 |
| 24 | Adam LaRoche | 19 |
| 25 | Carlos Guillen | 5 |
It's quite possible first base was make or break for your fantasy season this year.
Busts: Lee, Guillen, Pena, Helton, Konerko, Swisher. These picks did not work out as hoped. Lee, Guillen, and Konerko may just be naturally declining. Helton was hurt. As for Swisher...maybe he needed an adjustment period after the trade? He's had two decent months out of six; last year he only had one bad month. Fielder's been disappointing, but it's mainly because he was drafted too early originally. By the way I would suggest not drafting Huff or Delgado in the fifth or sixth round.
Surprises: Huff, Youkilis, Delgado, Cantu, Jackson, Votto. If you were "stuck" with one of these guys at first, you were pleasantly surprised. Aside from maybe Jackson and Votto, I'm not sure how these breakouts/career years could've been predicted. I guess the lesson again is that if you have a guy you know is decent and he starts raking, just pick him up and ask questions later. Huff, Youk, Delgado, Cantu...all four have had past fantasy success, just not much in '07.
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Who do you see making a similar jump out of nowhere like Youk, Huff, etc had this year for 2009?
I could see Loney, Pena and C. Guillen coming back and outperforming their numbers from this season.
Posted by: Papelboner | September 26, 2008 at 10:43 AM
I disagree on the pleasant suprise with Delgado. Given his age, the down year last year, and his absolutely abysmal first few months of the season, I'd say he was a major bust for the teams that drafted him. The teams that picked up him halfway through the season after the original owners most likely gave up on him might have been pleasantly surprised, but not the drafters.
Posted by: Pawtucket Pat | September 26, 2008 at 11:02 AM
Can't argue with that Pat. A lot of people were cutting Delgado.
I could see better years from LaRoche and Fielder. Chris Davis is an interesting sleeper.
Posted by: Tim Dierkes | September 26, 2008 at 12:08 PM
Is Conor Jackson ever going to develop respectible power for a 1B?
Posted by: mmontice | September 26, 2008 at 02:11 PM
Question: What do you make of Ryan Garko's year? IS his Spetember reality, or a hot streak? HIs power is down, his contact rate and BB/K ratio is up. He also has competition in Mike Aubrey and perhaps Victor Martinez.
Adam K
Posted by: Adam | September 27, 2008 at 08:45 AM
How do you determine "actual" ratings? Is this for roto or H2H? Is it for the 5 usual catagories or 4? Also, what is a HR worth compared to a Run, RBI, or SB? Does this vary by game format? Just wondering.
Posted by: Damnedifino | September 27, 2008 at 08:55 AM
Cabrera's had such an incredible 2nd half. I think he'll be in the top 2 next season.
BTW, the MVN Fantasy Outsider has posted a top 100 for 2009 at http://mvn.com/outsider/2008/09/27/fantasy-baseball-top-100-for-2009/
Posted by: trajanaugust | September 27, 2008 at 11:37 PM